As 2025 draws to a close, the world’s approach to climate change has undergone a seismic shift—one that’s left the United States on the sidelines and propelled China, along with an array of emerging economies, to the forefront of global climate action. The U.S., once a central architect of international climate policy, has retreated into what many observers now call self-imposed isolation, a move that has reverberated through diplomatic circles and global markets alike.
This year marked a historic break: for the first time in the 30-year history of the United Nations’ international climate talks, the United States did not send a delegation to the annual summit, COP30, held in Belém, Brazil. According to reporting from multiple outlets, the Trump administration’s absence was more than symbolic. It followed the administration’s decision to formally withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement—a pact that once united nearly every nation in the world in a voluntary commitment to halt climate change.
Over the summer, President Donald Trump and his Republican majority in Congress moved to dismantle a Biden-era law that had been projected to cut U.S. emissions by roughly a third compared to their peak. That policy had put the country within striking distance of its Paris Agreement targets. The rollback, combined with other actions, signaled a clear pivot away from the kind of climate leadership the U.S. once claimed on the world stage.
In the fall, Trump officials took a hardline approach in international negotiations, stalling or even attempting to derail a widely supported plan to decarbonize the global shipping industry—a sector notorious for its heavy emissions. The administration also slashed the vast majority of U.S. funding for global climate aid, leaving developing nations, many of whom have contributed little to the crisis, with fewer resources to adapt to rising temperatures, droughts, and floods.
It’s not just about policy. The rhetoric has been equally sharp. President Trump has repeatedly dismissed climate change as a “hoax” and a “con job,” a stance that’s drawn barely veiled criticism from world leaders. At COP30, Christiana Figueres, a longtime Costa Rican diplomat and a key architect of the Paris Agreement, summed up the mood among many delegates. “Ciao, bambino! You want to leave, leave,” she told reporters, using a phrase that translates to “bye-bye, little boy.”
This American retreat hasn’t gone unnoticed. According to the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Li Shuo, “China is going to, over time, create a new narrative and be a much more important driver for global climate action.” Shuo argued that the rhetoric-driven, politics-heavy approach favored by wealthy Western countries has proved unreliable and, ultimately, ineffective. In its place, China’s model—one that aligns economic growth with decarbonization—has begun to reshape the global landscape.
Indeed, the numbers are striking. As of the first half of 2025, China produced about 60 percent of the world’s wind turbines and a staggering 80 percent of its solar panels. The country added more than twice as much new solar capacity as the rest of the world combined during the same period. This surge has helped drive down the cost of renewable energy technologies, making them more accessible to countries in the Global South as well as to advanced economies looking to green their power grids.
As a result, the global trajectory of climate change has shifted. Current projections suggest the world is now on a path to see 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, compared to preindustrial levels. That’s still above the Paris Agreement’s ambitious 1.5-degree target, but it’s a dramatic improvement over the roughly 5 degrees Celsius forecasted just a decade ago.
China’s influence extends far beyond its own borders. Partnerships with Chinese firms are expected to drive massive increases in solar deployment in countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia over the next few years. These countries, once seen as lagging in the energy transition, are now poised to leapfrog into the renewables era, thanks largely to affordable Chinese technology.
But China isn’t the only player stepping up. African countries, too, are asserting leadership. Earlier this year, the continent hosted its own climate summit, where leaders pledged to raise $50 billion by 2030 to promote at least 1,000 locally led solutions in sectors ranging from energy and agriculture to water and transport. Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, declared, “The continent has moved the conversation from crisis to opportunity, from aid to investment, and from external prescription to African-led. We have embraced the powerful truth [that] Africa is not a passive recipient of climate solutions, but the actor and architect of these solutions.”
Meanwhile, the European Union is moving forward with its own climate agenda. The EU’s new carbon border tax, set to take effect in January 2026, will levy fees on imports from outside the bloc based on their carbon footprint. The move, once expected to trigger conflict with the U.S., is now proceeding without either strong support or opposition from Washington, reflecting the shifting dynamics of international climate diplomacy.
At COP30, China seized the opportunity to push its agenda on trade. The final agreement included language stating that unilateral trade measures—such as tariffs—“should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.” According to Li Shuo, “China was able to force this issue on the agenda” precisely because the U.S. was absent from the negotiating table. It’s a telling sign of how quickly the balance of power can shift when a major player steps back.
Still, the gravitational pull of American policy hasn’t vanished entirely. In Belém, the U.S.’s opposition to the International Maritime Organization’s carbon framework influenced ongoing discussions about decarbonizing the shipping industry. And the knowledge that the U.S. wouldn’t be contributing to climate aid funds shaped the contours of climate finance agreements. But as the world continues to adapt to a post-American climate order, those pressures may well fade.
The Trump administration’s climate stance is part of a broader pattern. As of December 13, 2025, the administration has been intensifying efforts to blame external forces for America’s problems, enacting policies designed to block outside influences from crossing U.S. borders. This approach, coming amid a series of foreign and domestic challenges, has further isolated the country from its traditional allies and partners.
For many nations, the U.S. withdrawal from climate leadership has been both a challenge and an opportunity. With American influence receding, new alliances are forming, and countries once considered followers are now setting the pace. The message to developing countries is clear: help is not on the way from Washington, but the tools for transformation may be closer than ever—thanks to the changing economics of clean energy and the rise of new global leaders.
As the dust settles on a tumultuous year, one thing is certain: the world’s fight against climate change is moving forward, with or without the United States. The question now isn’t whether the global order will adapt to this new reality, but how quickly—and who will lead the charge in the years to come.