Rare metals stocks are heading into the Christmas holiday week with a potent mix of drivers that have investors on edge: shifting Chinese export rules, evolving battery demand, and the ever-present undercurrent of geopolitics. For those tracking rare earths and critical minerals, recent days have delivered a flurry of developments that could shape markets well beyond December.
At the center of this storm is China, whose dominance in rare earth mining and processing is both a source of national pride and global anxiety. According to AFP, the hills of Jiangxi province—home to the world’s largest cluster of rare earth mines—are alive with activity, running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The number of rare earth processing points in China has soared from just 117 in 2010 to over 3,000 by 2025, with most clustered in Jiangxi. A resident in Banshi told AFP, “It’s busy 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” a sentiment echoed by the sight of new industrial parks rising across the region.
This relentless pace is no accident. China’s decades-long strategy to build dominance in the rare earth sector has paid off handsomely. As former leader Deng Xiaoping famously said, “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.” Today, China not only boasts the largest reserves but has also consolidated much of the industry into two state-owned giants. The province’s capital, Ganzhou, even has a “Rare Earth Avenue,” where construction for a sprawling new headquarters for China Rare Earth Group is underway.
But the strategic importance of this industry goes far beyond China’s borders. In December 2025, China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed it had begun issuing new “general” export licenses for rare earth-related items. Reuters reports that this move is designed to streamline shipments, potentially reducing shipping friction for global manufacturers. Some approvals have already included suppliers to Ford, though details for European recipients remain murky. Xinhua, via official Chinese channels, noted that applications for these general licenses have been received and approved for certain exporters, signaling a possible easing—but not elimination—of export controls.
For investors, the implications are twofold. On the one hand, streamlined approvals could ease supply concerns for downstream manufacturers in the auto, electronics, and industrial sectors. On the other, as Reuters points out, if these approvals remain selective and revocable, the market may view them as mere administrative smoothing rather than true liberalization. The specter of geopolitical leverage—and volatility—remains ever-present.
The U.S. and its allies aren’t standing idly by. Washington has been racing to establish alternative supply chains, but as experts warn, these efforts will take years. The European Union, meanwhile, recently announced nearly three billion euros in support for projects aimed at reducing dependence on China, including the creation of a new supply hub for critical raw materials.
Back on Wall Street, the holiday-shortened trading week (normal hours December 22–23, early close December 24, closed December 25, and a full day December 26) is expected to bring thinner liquidity and bigger price swings for rare metals stocks. According to the NYSE, these names often trade with higher volatility than mega-cap indices, meaning any headline—especially out of China—can move markets in outsized ways.
Company-specific news is also making waves. MP Materials, a bellwether for the U.S. rare earth industry, is reportedly near commercial magnet production at its Fort Worth facility for General Motors, with plans to scale up for customers like Apple, as reported by S&P Global. The company’s partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense has secured significant financing and long-term commitments to expand domestic magnet capacity, including the ambitious “10X Facility.”
Meanwhile, Lynas Rare Earths, the largest “ex-China” processor in public markets, faces potential production shortfalls at its Kalgoorlie facility due to power disruptions, according to Reuters. Operational reliability, it seems, can matter just as much as commodity prices in this sector.
Energy Fuels, another U.S. player, announced that its high-purity dysprosium oxide—a heavy rare earth crucial for high-performance magnets—has been qualified by a major South Korean magnet manufacturer. This milestone, reported by the company itself, underscores the growing importance of demonstrating repeatable processing quality, not just resource potential.
Tronox, traditionally known for its titanium dioxide business, is jumping into the rare earth race as well. The company recently received conditional support for up to US$600 million in financing from Export Finance Australia and the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a new processing facility in Western Australia. According to Mining.com, this marks a shift from feasibility studies to a more serious processing pathway.
Battery metals are also in the spotlight. Reuters reports that global EV sales rose 21% year-over-year to 18.5 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, fueling demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt. But the equity picture is less rosy: oversupply and a shift toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries—which reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt—have pressured upstream producers. Fitch Ratings expects both nickel and lithium markets to remain oversupplied in 2026, while BloombergNEF notes that record-low battery pack prices in 2025 have been a boon for adoption but a headache for margins.
Cobalt stands out as a wild card. Policy moves, especially in Congo, can quickly change the market landscape. Reuters notes that recent attempts to control the cobalt market in Congo could keep prices elevated into 2026, a view echoed by BloombergNEF.
Strategic minor metals like antimony are also drawing attention. In late 2025, China convicted multiple people for smuggling antimony without export licenses, underscoring that enforcement and licensing remain powerful levers even as some rules shift. Legal updates around China’s dual-use export regime emphasize that, for sensitive materials like gallium and graphite, licensing frameworks and end-use scrutiny are here to stay.
Government backing is increasingly central to the rare metals story. MP Materials’ Department of Defense partnership, the U.S. Department of Energy’s restructured deal with Lithium Americas, and South Korea’s support for Korea Zinc’s U.S. refinery buildout all point to a future where the state is both customer and capital provider. Export-credit support for projects like Tronox’s facility further highlights this trend.
As the week unfolds, investors are watching for clarity on China’s export licensing, key U.S. macroeconomic data releases, battery metals supply-demand dynamics, and company execution headlines. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX), with top holdings like MP Materials, remains a popular way to track the sector as a whole.
In the end, rare metals stocks enter the holiday week caught between policy-driven scarcity and fundamentals-driven mean reversion. With China’s grip on the sector as tight as ever and global demand only growing, the stakes—for investors and industries alike—couldn’t be higher.