As China’s political elite gathers in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025, the nation stands at a pivotal crossroads. The Communist Party’s Central Committee is convening its Fourth Plenary Session, a meeting that will define China’s 15th Five-Year Plan—an ambitious blueprint charting the country’s development from 2026 to 2030. While the official proposals are set to be unveiled in the days following the plenum, a flurry of policy meetings, official commentaries, and expert analysis has already begun to reveal the priorities and tensions shaping China’s next chapter.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. According to Caixin, the 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on three major themes: high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial transformation and upgrading. The plan aims to deepen reforms and advance China’s modernization drive, with a long-term vision stretching to 2035. The September 2025 Politburo meeting provided a glimpse of these priorities, emphasizing principles such as “the people,” “fairness,” adapting to local conditions, “high-level opening-up,” and the integration of an effective market with a capable government. The session also highlighted “bottom-line thinking”—a nod to the importance of comprehensive security, from supply chains to national defense.
For those seeking to decode the signals from Beijing, the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) hosted a timely webinar featuring a roster of China experts. Neil Thomas, CCA Fellow on Chinese Politics, led a discussion with Michael Hirson, Head of China Research at 22V Research; Christopher Johnson, CEO of China Strategies Group; Dan Wang, China Director at Eurasia Group; and Guoguang Wu, Senior Research Scholar at Stanford University. The panel dissected the political and economic significance of the Fourth Plenum, drawing on their deep expertise and recent publications, including Thomas’s co-authored report, “Self-Strengthening for Strategic Competition: What to Watch at China’s Fourth Plenum.”
So, what’s on the horizon for China’s development strategy? Based on analysis from Caixin and insights from the CCA, the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to target average annual economic growth of 4.1% to 5.5%. This range is considered necessary for Beijing to achieve its long-term goal of doubling 2020’s GDP or per capita income by 2035—a target that remains central even as recent five-year plans have shifted focus from headline GDP numbers to qualitative reforms.
Emerging industries are set to take center stage. The plan will prioritize sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, new energy, and the marine economy. Other focus areas include commercial spaceflight, the low-altitude economy, intelligent vehicles, and robotics. These priorities have been repeatedly echoed in official documents and policy meetings throughout 2025. For example, the April Politburo meeting called for “building a number of emerging pillar industries,” while the July session stressed “accelerating the cultivation of internationally competitive emerging pillar industries.” The government’s work report has also spotlighted industries like “AI Plus,” commercial spaceflight, and intelligent connected new-energy vehicles as potential engines of future growth.
But it’s not just about raw growth. The 15th Plan is poised to maintain a strong emphasis on public well-being and security. The principle of “people first” and the pursuit of “more fairness” are expected to feature prominently, reflecting a continued commitment to social equity and comprehensive public welfare indicators. Security, too, is being elevated to parity with economic growth—a trend that began with the 14th Five-Year Plan and shows no sign of waning. The plan will likely address industrial and supply chain integrity, food security, and national defense, underscoring the Communist Party’s determination to safeguard China’s development against external shocks and internal vulnerabilities.
Reform remains a critical pillar of the upcoming plan. The 15th Five-Year Plan will serve as a midterm review of China’s progress toward “basic socialist modernization” by 2035. It will also implement over 300 reform tasks set out by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to be completed by 2029. Policy directions are expected to include market-based reforms, innovation incentives, green and low-carbon policies, and improved social safety nets. This reform agenda is designed to address uneven sectoral growth and perceptions at the micro-level, as highlighted in a series of articles published by the People’s Daily under the pseudonym “Zhong Caiwen.” These writings warn against one-size-fits-all approaches to industrial policy and call for strong, reform-oriented measures to manage China’s complex transformation.
The integration of the real and digital economies will be another hallmark of the plan. Recent five-year plans have moved away from setting rigid quantitative sectoral targets, instead placing greater emphasis on advanced manufacturing, innovation, and R&D spending. The focus on “new quality productive forces” is expected to continue, with the government seeking to foster emerging pillar industries and encourage the fusion of scientific and industrial innovation. The State Council’s group study sessions in 2025 have repeatedly stressed the importance of “vigorously promoting service consumption and technology consumption” and “deepening the reform of the mechanism for commercializing science and technology achievements.”
Of course, these ambitions are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and domestic uncertainty. The Asia Society Policy Institute’s event underscored how U.S.-China relations and recent high-level personnel changes in Beijing are shaping the country’s policy calculus. According to Neil Thomas and his colleagues, the Fourth Plenum is not just about economic targets—it’s also about “self-strengthening for strategic competition.” The leadership is keenly aware of the need to balance growth with security and resilience, especially as China faces external pressures and internal challenges.
As the Fourth Plenary Session gets underway, observers are watching closely for more detailed guidance and policy parameters. Historically, the full text released after such plenums provides granular details on economic and social development objectives. The process is far from transparent—Beijing’s “black box” remains as enigmatic as ever—but the signals emerging from high-level meetings, official commentaries, and expert analysis point to a plan that is both ambitious and pragmatic.
In the words of Zhao Wei, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd., who contributed to Caixin’s analysis, “the 15th Five-Year Plan will be a critical midpoint in China’s phased modernization, requiring both deepening of existing initiatives and a clear-eyed review of progress.” While the company did not write or endorse the article, Zhao’s perspective captures the sense of urgency and complexity that defines this moment in China’s policymaking.
As the dust settles after the Fourth Plenum, the world will be watching not only for the official proposals but also for the subtle shifts in tone and emphasis that signal China’s evolving priorities. The 15th Five-Year Plan is more than a bureaucratic exercise—it is a statement of intent, a roadmap for a nation navigating the twin challenges of transformation and competition in a rapidly changing world.