When China officially reclassified platinum as a strategic critical mineral in late 2025, it sent shockwaves through the global supply chains for platinum group metals (PGMs) and rare earths—key ingredients in everything from electric vehicles to military hardware and hydrogen fuel cells. The move, coinciding with the launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX), marks a pivotal moment in the international contest for resource security and technological supremacy.
For years, China has dominated the world’s critical minerals supply chains, controlling a staggering 90% of rare earths refining, according to Fortune. This dominance, built over decades, has left the United States and much of the world reliant on Beijing for the materials that underpin modern industry. But as the global energy transition accelerates and geopolitical tensions mount, the U.S. and its allies are racing to break China’s stranglehold.
“I realized we only have a handful of large critical minerals projects that were going into production between now and 2030,” said Pini Althaus, chairman and CEO of Cove Capital, in an interview with Fortune. Althaus, who left USA Rare Earth in 2023 to develop mining projects in Central Asia, saw the writing on the wall: the U.S. would need international partners to supplement its own limited critical minerals supply chain.
The urgency is clear. China’s reclassification of platinum—driven by more than 95% import dependency and the metal’s central role in hydrogen technologies and advanced manufacturing—signals Beijing’s recognition that its industrial future depends on secure access to PGMs. According to Weibin Deng of the World Platinum Investment Council, China’s reliance on imports is structural: it lacks the geological formations that host economic platinum deposits, meaning domestic mine production is negligible. This reliance is not just an economic vulnerability but a strategic one, as platinum is indispensable for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers, fuel cell stacks, and a host of industrial catalysts.
The launch of platinum and palladium futures on GFEX in December 2025 formalizes institutional investment demand and creates new physical inventory requirements, further tightening global markets. GFEX contracts, denominated in RMB and accepting unique deliverable grades like platinum ingots and sponge, are tailor-made for industrial flows. As open interest grows, so does warehoused platinum, removing material from immediate supply and ratcheting up demand pressure.
“The last few years with prices as low as they have been has not incentivized new supply to come on… As a result you’ve got the situation of steady demand declining supply so older mines particularly in South Africa which become more and more challenging to operate, more costly to operate and you have a drop off in terms of supply and it leads to that deficit situation that we’re seeing today right now,” said Nick Smart, CEO of ValOre Metals, to Fortune.
The supply side is fraught with risk. South Africa holds 90% of the world’s platinum resources and dominates global mine production, but faces declining ore grades, cost inflation, and persistent power supply constraints. Russia, the secondary supplier, is beset by geopolitical risk. This geographic concentration exposes China—and the world—to supply shocks and price volatility.
Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the United States has taken a multi-pronged approach to secure its own critical minerals future. In October 2025, the Trump administration inked a $3 billion deal with Australia, home to Lynas Rare Earths, the world’s largest publicly traded critical minerals miner. The U.S. has also signed bilateral agreements with Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Ukraine, Argentina, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and Kazakhstan. These deals are more than just trade pacts; they are strategic alliances aimed at reshaping the global minerals landscape.
Althaus, now focused on developing tungsten and rare earths mining and processing facilities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, sees particular promise in former Soviet states. “The Soviets spent many decades exploring and developing mines. Many of their databases have been left and are quite meticulous,” he told Fortune. “This gives companies looking to develop projects in central Asia a jump start compared to what would be here in the United States, where most of the opportunities are greenfield—very early stages, very high risk, and very little appetite for investment.”
In November 2025, Cove Capital received a $900 million financing letter of interest from the U.S. Ex-Im Bank for its $1.1 billion Kazakh tungsten project, with a separate letter of interest from the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. These moves underscore a new willingness by Washington to make financial partnerships, even becoming a majority shareholder in U.S. rare earths miner MP Materials and offering price floor mechanisms to offset China’s price dumping practices.
“By providing a price floor, it removes the question marks; it removes the instability; it removes the most significant risk in funding a project that’s about to go into production,” Althaus explained. “It creates a predictability where you can take geology all the way through to profitability. I think there should be a global effort to create transparent markets and prices for the key critical minerals.”
China’s platinum reclassification and the GFEX futures launch have global repercussions. The policy creates clear beneficiaries among emerging developers in jurisdictions outside the traditional powerhouses. Brazil, for example, is gaining attention for its regulatory stability, infrastructure, and skilled workforce. ValOre Metals, operating the Pedra Branca project in Ceará state, is emblematic of this trend. With 2.2 million ounces of inferred platinum group elements plus gold near surface, the project benefits from Brazil’s transparent permitting processes and innovative trial mining programs.
“When we look at where we are interested in developing projects, our project Pedra Branca in Brazil is in a stable jurisdiction with fantastic infrastructure, good access to electricity, and a supportive government in terms of permitting and bringing that forward. That’s a huge advantage for us in that space… One thing worth talking about is the sheer level of talent that exists within Brazil, particularly on the mining side,” Smart noted.
Meanwhile, Greenland is also emerging as a potential ally. Critical Metals acquired 92.5% ownership of the Tanbreez rare earths mining project in 2025, with plans to start construction by the end of 2026, aided by a $120 million Ex-Im Bank loan. “There’s an absolute need to make sure that more than 50% of the supply of these heavy rare earths come from outside of China—mined and processed outside of China,” said Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, to Fortune.
As the U.S. leverages trade deals to lift export bans on nickel from Indonesia and secures critical mineral rights from Ukraine in exchange for military support, the shape of the global minerals order is shifting. The goal is clear: to ensure that more than half of heavy rare earth supply and an increasing share of platinum group metals come from sources outside China, mined and processed abroad.
China’s policy moves—reclassification, GFEX futures, and hydrogen infrastructure buildout—create demand visibility that supports higher price floors and reduces cyclical volatility. For investors, this means more transparent markets and new opportunities in stable jurisdictions. For the U.S. and its allies, it’s a race against time to build a resilient, diversified supply chain before the next crisis hits.
The world’s critical minerals landscape is being redrawn in real time, with new alliances, new markets, and new players rising to meet the challenge. The outcome will reverberate through industries and economies for decades to come.
