On December 24, 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) rolled out a series of new financial initiatives designed to bolster the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor, an ambitious project launched back in 2017 to link the western regions of China with global shipping routes. According to the South China Morning Post, this latest announcement underscores Beijing’s determination to deepen economic integration across Asia and reduce its reliance on the US dollar for cross-border trade and settlement.
Central to these measures is the expansion of China’s digital currency experiment. The PBoC, in collaboration with seven other ministries, committed to piloting cross-border digital RMB (also known as e-CNY) payments between mainland China and Singapore. The plan doesn’t stop there—similar cooperative efforts are in the works with Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, all key players in the region’s economic landscape. China has been trialing the digital RMB since 2020, positioning it as an alternative to the increasingly popular stablecoins that have begun to reshape global finance.
Beijing’s hope is clear: by promoting the digital RMB in international trade, it aims to chip away at the US dollar’s dominance as the world’s intermediary currency. If successful, this could mark a significant shift in the way global trade is financed and settled. The PBoC also announced plans to expand the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), a platform touted as China’s answer to the SWIFT system, which currently underpins most international financial transactions. By encouraging ASEAN businesses and trading partners to use the RMB—especially in large-scale commodity deals, investments, and trade—China is signaling its intent to reshape the region’s financial architecture.
Meanwhile, Thailand, one of China’s key trading partners and a pivotal member of ASEAN, has been experiencing its own economic transformation. According to the Thai Ministry of Commerce’s Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (TPSO), the country’s exports in November 2025 climbed 7.1% year-on-year to $27.45 billion, marking the 17th straight month of export growth. When oil-related products, gold, and defense goods are excluded, the growth rate jumps to 11.8% for the month. Imports, however, also surged by 17.6% to $30.17 billion in November, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.73 billion.
TPSO Director-General Nantapong Chiralerspong explained that the robust export performance was driven mainly by industrial goods, particularly electronics—a sector benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the global computing cycle and the rapid expansion of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence. "Exports continue to be supported primarily by shipments of electronics, in line with the recovery of the computer cycle and the expansion of modern technologies, including AI, which has strongly boosted manufacturing growth," Nantapong was quoted as saying by VietnamPlus.
Yet, not all was rosy. Nantapong warned that geopolitical risks remain a persistent source of uncertainty, and key markets such as China, Japan, and the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) have shown signs of slowing demand. Thai agricultural exports, in particular, have come under pressure due to natural disasters and intensifying global competition. In November, agricultural and processed agricultural exports fell by 9.5%, with raw agricultural goods dropping 15.7%—the fourth consecutive month of decline. Major products such as rice, rubber, processed seafood, fresh and dried fruit, and sugar all saw notable decreases.
Industrial products, on the other hand, continued to shine. From January to November 2025, exports of industrial goods jumped 17.1%. Key growth items included computers and parts, precious stones and jewelry (excluding gold), phones and components, printed circuit boards, transformers, and control panels. The strength of these sectors helped Thailand maintain its export momentum, even as agricultural exports lagged behind. Nantapong noted, "Export growth in November was driven by industrial products, which have seen 20 consecutive months of expansion."
Looking at trade partners, shipments to the United States remained robust, providing essential support to Thailand’s export engine. However, exports to China, Japan, and the CLMV countries slowed, reflecting broader regional economic headwinds. Exports to secondary markets grew by 7.6%, led by South Asia, Australia, and the United Kingdom, while shipments to the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Russia, and the CIS declined.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.1% for 2025, slipping to 1.6% in 2026. These figures highlight the challenges facing Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which continues to grapple with global uncertainties, shifting demand, and the lingering effects of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions.
Looking ahead, the Thai Ministry of Commerce expects December 2025 exports to fall between $25.0 and $26.5 billion. If these forecasts hold, the full-year export value will reach between $335 and $337 billion, representing an annual growth rate of 11.6% to 12.1%. But the outlook for 2026 is less optimistic: preliminary forecasts suggest export growth could range from -3.3% to 1.1%, a reflection of weaker global conditions and subdued demand from key trading partners. Nantapong explained that the slowdown is expected due to “weaker global conditions and reduced demand from major trading partners, the clearer impact of US tariff measures, pricing pressures, a stronger baht affecting competitiveness, persistent geopolitical risks, and extreme weather impacting agricultural output.”
To address these headwinds, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce is sharpening its focus for 2026. The strategy includes accelerating negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, tightening enforcement of rules of origin, cracking down on foreign companies misusing Thai names, and promoting greater use of free trade agreements. The ministry also plans to work closely with the private sector to support exports amid weak demand and persistent uncertainty.
Back in China, the expansion of the digital RMB and CIPS is seen as a calculated move to future-proof the country’s trade and financial systems. By offering a digital alternative to the dollar and SWIFT, China hopes to provide its partners—especially those in ASEAN and the Middle East—with more choices in how they settle payments and finance trade. This could, in turn, help shield regional economies from external shocks and currency fluctuations.
For Thailand and its neighbors, the growing availability of digital RMB payments and China’s push for regional financial integration present both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, businesses could benefit from faster, cheaper cross-border transactions and less exposure to dollar volatility. On the other, the shift could complicate existing trade relationships and require significant adjustments to financial infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
As 2025 draws to a close, both China and Thailand find themselves at pivotal moments. China is betting big on digital currency and regional payment systems to reshape the future of trade, while Thailand is navigating a complex export landscape marked by strong industrial growth and persistent agricultural woes. The coming year promises to test the resilience and adaptability of both economies as they respond to shifting global tides and the inexorable march of technological change.
