On December 8, 2025, two of the world’s largest economies—China and Russia—found themselves at pivotal junctures. While China celebrated a record-breaking trade surplus, Russia’s banking sector faced mounting troubles, with both stories reflecting the shifting tides of global commerce and finance. The contrast couldn’t be sharper: China’s export engine roared ahead, even as Russian analysts sounded alarms over deepening cracks in their financial system. But, as always, the details reveal a far more nuanced global picture.
According to recent data published by the General Administration of Customs and reported by AFP, China’s annual trade surplus soared past $1 trillion for the first time in history. This milestone came despite a dramatic 28.6 percent plunge in exports to the United States in November 2025, totaling just $33.8 billion for that month. How did China pull this off? The answer, it seems, lies in a clever rerouting of trade flows and a surge in shipments to other major global markets. "Weakness in exports to the United States was more than offset by shipments to other markets," wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of Chinese exporters.
China’s export growth, up 5.9 percent year-on-year in November, not only reversed a slight decline from October but also exceeded Bloomberg’s forecast of 4 percent. This performance pushed the country’s trade surplus for the first eleven months of the year to a staggering $1.08 trillion. As Zichun Huang noted, "Exports are likely to remain resilient, thanks to trade rerouting and rising price competitiveness as deflation pushes down China's real effective exchange rate." In other words, Chinese goods are becoming cheaper on the world market, making them more attractive to buyers outside the United States.
Yet, not everything in China’s economic garden is rosy. Imports rose just 1.9 percent year-on-year in November, falling short of Bloomberg’s predicted 3 percent increase. The sluggish pace of import growth points to weak domestic demand, a problem exacerbated by a prolonged debt crisis in the property sector and sluggish consumer spending. "The rebound of export growth in November helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand," observed Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. He added, "The economic momentum slowed in the fourth quarter partly driven by the continued weakness in the property sector."
Geopolitics, meanwhile, looms large over China’s trade story. In late October, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met in South Korea, reaching a tentative truce in their ongoing trade war. The two leaders agreed to scale back tariffs and ease export controls, providing temporary relief for global industries rattled by years of tit-for-tat measures. However, as Lynn Song, ING chief economist for Greater China, warned, "There’s no guarantee this uneasy truce will last that long... A lot needs to go right for the agreement to hold for the full year." The detente is set to expire late next year, leaving open the possibility of renewed tensions if a permanent deal isn’t struck.
Europe, too, is watching China’s trade juggernaut with growing unease. French President Emmanuel Macron, fresh off a state visit to China, issued a pointed warning on December 7, 2025: if Beijing fails to reduce its massive trade surplus with the European Union, Europe may have no choice but to impose tariffs. In remarks published in Les Echos, Macron stated, "Europeans will be forced to take strong measures in the coming months." The message was clear—China’s ballooning surplus, while a boon at home, is raising hackles abroad and could trigger a new round of trade disputes.
As China’s leaders prepared for a key economic planning meeting, the world’s attention turned eastward. Would Beijing double down on exports, or pivot to stimulate domestic demand? The stakes are high, not just for China, but for the entire global economy.
Meanwhile, the view from Moscow was far less optimistic. For the first time, pro-Kremlin analysts publicly acknowledged what many outside observers have suspected: Russia’s banking sector is facing serious, even systemic, challenges. As reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation and summarized by macroeconomic experts, the country’s financial stability is under threat from rising debt risks and a sluggish economy.
The numbers are stark. The volume of so-called "bad" loans to Russian households hit approximately 2.3 trillion rubles—about $27 billion—representing a 1.6-fold increase over just nine months. Even more concerning, more than 2.4 trillion rubles worth of loans were forcibly restructured, a move that allows banks to mask the true extent of defaults. In the words of one expert group, these trends point to "worsening lending conditions and problems in the financial system as a whole."
The pain is widespread. Tensions are growing in Russia’s mortgage and consumer lending markets, especially for loans issued at high rates during 2023 and 2024. Small and medium-sized businesses are also feeling the squeeze: one in five business loans now requires review due to declining profits. The dual pressures of falling exports and lower real incomes are hitting both companies and ordinary citizens, driving up debt burdens and eroding financial stability. According to official assessments from leading economic centers, "Russia’s financial stability is gradually weakening."
What’s driving this downward spiral? Analysts point to the country’s massive spending on military needs and government policies that, in their words, are "draining the economy." The ongoing war and international sanctions have hamstrung key sectors, notably the metallurgical industry. Export restrictions, high policy rates, and fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers—who are flooding global markets with cheap steel and other products—have only intensified the pressure on Russian banks and businesses.
In a particularly telling sign of the times, the accumulation of bad debts in Russia is now seen as a direct result of the country’s wartime priorities. As the Center for Countering Disinformation put it, "The accumulation of bad debts was attributed as a direct result of military spending and government policies draining the economy." It’s a sobering admission from a government that, until recently, insisted its financial system was resilient in the face of sanctions and external shocks.
So, what does all this mean for the global economic landscape? On one side, China’s export-fueled growth continues to reshape trade balances and provoke policy responses from the West. On the other, Russia’s financial woes highlight the risks of prolonged conflict and economic isolation. As both countries navigate their respective crossroads, the rest of the world is left to watch—and wonder—how these twin stories will unfold in the months ahead.
For now, the numbers speak volumes. China’s trade surplus may be breaking records, but the warning lights are flashing in Moscow. The coming year will test the resilience of both economies—and, by extension, the stability of the global financial system they help anchor.