Rare earth elements—those elusive metals with names like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—have quietly become the lifeblood of modern technology. From the batteries that power electric vehicles to the magnets inside smartphones and the guidance systems in military hardware, these elements are in just about everything high-tech. But as the world races toward a greener, more digital future, the question of who controls these critical resources has turned into a high-stakes geopolitical chess match.
As of 2025, the global landscape for rare earth metals is dominated by a handful of countries, with China firmly in the lead. According to reporting by Russpain.com, China holds an astonishing 44 million tons of known rare earth reserves—nearly half of the world’s total. That’s a figure that dwarfs its closest rival, Brazil, which comes in at 21 million tons. The United States, despite its vast economy and technological prowess, lags far behind with just 1.9 million tons, or about 2% of the global reserves. Rounding out the top six are India (6.9 million tons), Australia (5.7 million tons), Russia, and Vietnam. Together, these six countries control about 80% of all known reserves, leaving the rest of the world—especially Europe and North America—heavily reliant on imports.
This concentration of resources is more than just a quirk of geology; it’s a strategic vulnerability. As countries scramble to secure the raw materials needed for everything from green energy to national defense, the balance of power is shifting. The United States, for example, has been working overtime to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths. The Biden administration has poured money into domestic mining projects, streamlined permitting processes, and sought out new partners among allies like Australia and Canada. Still, as Russpain.com notes, these efforts have only begun to chip away at the overwhelming dominance of China.
“Our primary focus is the ability to process materials from a variety of different inputs, and so to somewhat become less tied to any single mine’s production,” explained Tim Johnston, strategic adviser for REalloys, a US-based rare earth firm, in an interview reported by the South China Morning Post. REalloys operates a downstream facility for permanent magnets and critical metals in Ohio, and on December 8, 2025, it announced a new partnership with Canada’s Saskatchewan Research Council. The two will invest $21 million in a processing plant for heavy rare earths, marking the latest in a string of private sector initiatives aimed at breaking China’s grip on the supply chain.
But building a truly China-free supply chain is easier said than done. REalloys’ strategy hinges on working with Canadian and Japanese partners to create a North American network for critical minerals. The goal is to process materials from various sources, reducing dependence on any single mine or country. Yet, as Johnston and other industry experts acknowledge, achieving a fully self-sufficient supply chain will take time and is fraught with risks. The infrastructure for refining rare earths simply doesn’t exist at scale in North America today, and building it up will require not just money, but also political will and technological know-how.
Washington is certainly paying attention. In October 2025, President Donald Trump (in a rare bipartisan continuation of policy focus) signed a series of deals during his trip to Asia, including a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia, which already boasts rare earth processing capacity. These moves are part of a broader, global hunt for critical minerals, as the US government seeks to insulate itself from supply shocks and geopolitical pressure. According to the South China Morning Post, the US has also been looking to Australia as a key partner, though relations with other resource-rich countries like Brazil, Canada, and India remain complex and sometimes contradictory.
Europe, meanwhile, finds itself in a bind. With limited domestic resources, European Union countries are scrambling to secure alternative sources, signing long-term contracts with suppliers in Asia and South America. But efforts to launch new mining projects within the EU are often stymied by environmental regulations and local protests. As Russpain.com points out, this leaves Europe vulnerable to market disruptions and at the mercy of a handful of exporting nations.
The urgency of the situation is only growing. Demand for rare earth elements is expected to double by 2030, fueled by the explosion of green technologies and the world’s shift toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced electronics all require these metals in increasing quantities. If even a small change occurs in the export policy of a major producer—or if domestic regulations tighten—global supply chains could be thrown into chaos.
China’s dominance isn’t just about having the biggest reserves; it’s also about controlling the processing and export of these materials. As the world’s largest producer and exporter, China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to use rare earths as a bargaining chip in trade disputes. In October 2024, the US and China reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs in exchange for guarantees of stable rare earth supplies. But as experts caution, such arrangements may be short-lived, subject to the shifting winds of geopolitics.
Brazil, despite its vast reserves, plays a surprisingly small role in global exports. The country has struggled to scale up production and navigate the complex environmental and regulatory hurdles that come with mining. Australia and India, on the other hand, are ramping up efforts to carve out a bigger share of the market, hoping to position themselves as reliable alternatives to China.
For Spain and most other European nations, the stakes are clear: ensuring stable supplies of rare earth elements is becoming an existential imperative. The stability of global technology supply chains—and by extension, economic security—now hinges on the policies of a handful of countries thousands of miles away. It’s a precarious position, one that has prompted urgent calls for diversification and innovation.
Yet, despite all the talk of new alliances and supply chain resilience, the road ahead is anything but smooth. Environmental concerns, community opposition, and the sheer complexity of rare earth extraction and processing mean that progress is likely to be incremental. As nations continue to jostle for position on this global chessboard, the world watches with bated breath, knowing that the next move could shape the future of technology for decades to come.
With demand only set to rise and supply chains stretched thin, the race for rare earth metals is far from over—and the outcome may well determine who leads the next wave of technological innovation.