Celtics Dominate Pacers In High-Scoring Boston Showdown

The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers squared off on January 21, 2026, at TD Garden in Boston in a matchup that carried weight for both teams, albeit for very different reasons. The Celtics, sitting atop the Atlantic Division with a 26-16 record, were looking to bounce back from a narrow 104-103 loss to Detroit just two days earlier. The Pacers, meanwhile, entered the night with a 10-34 record and were fifth in the Central Division, still searching for answers as their challenging season continued.

The contest tipped off at 7:30 p.m. ET, broadcast nationally on FDSIN, NBCS-BOS, and WTHR-13. Heading into the game, Boston was a hefty 10.5-point favorite according to DraftKings, with some outlets setting the spread as high as 11 points. The over/under for total points was pegged at 226.5, reflecting the offensive firepower both teams were expected to bring to the court.

Indiana faced a significant setback before the game even began: Benedict Mathurin, a promising young guard, was ruled out with a thumb injury. Images from pregame warmups showed Mathurin on the court but not in uniform, hinting at the Pacers’ limited depth in the backcourt. That absence loomed large as the Pacers tried to find production from elsewhere on their roster.

The Celtics, meanwhile, were eager to capitalize on their home-court advantage, boasting a 12-7 record at TD Garden this season. Boston’s recent form had been solid, going 6-4 in their last ten games and covering the spread in six of those contests. They had also covered the point spread in their previous three games, a trend that gave bettors plenty of confidence heading into this one.

From the opening tip, the Celtics looked to assert themselves. Key images from the first quarter showed Jaylen Brown, Boston’s dynamic guard, driving aggressively past Pacers defenders. Brown was double-teamed early by Aaron Nesmith and Jay Huff, but that didn’t slow him down. According to projections from the SportsLine model, Brown was expected to score an average of 29.8 points, and he played with the confidence of a man determined to hit that mark.

On the other side, Indiana’s offense revolved around Pascal Siakam, who was projected to notch 22.1 points on average by the SportsLine model. Siakam entered the game averaging 23.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4 assists per contest, and the Pacers needed every bit of his production if they were going to keep pace with Boston’s high-powered attack. The Pacers’ recent form against the spread was respectable—5-5 in their last ten games—but their 2-18 road record spoke volumes about their struggles away from Indianapolis.

As the action unfolded, the Celtics’ depth began to show. Derrick White, averaging 17.7 points and 5.4 assists per game, provided steady playmaking, while Payton Pritchard and Anfernee Simons chipped in with scoring of their own. Boston’s ability to get six players into double figures was a key storyline, as projected by the SportsLine model, which had predicted that six Celtics would score at least ten points.

Defensively, Boston was as stingy as ever. The Celtics allowed just 110 points per game on average—good for second in the league—and their ability to rotate and contest shots was evident in the second quarter. Neemias Queta, Boston’s center, was active on both ends, grabbing rebounds and providing interior defense. One memorable sequence showed Queta shooting over Aaron Nesmith, while Sam Hauser and Jaylen Brown combined to force a turnover from Jay Huff. The hustle plays and defensive stops kept the Pacers from finding a rhythm.

Indiana, for its part, tried to push the pace and find open looks. Andrew Nembhard, averaging 17.6 points and 7.1 assists, orchestrated the offense, while Jay Huff and Jarace Walker contributed with timely buckets. The Pacers’ shooting percentage hovered around 44.3% on the season, just a hair below Boston’s defensive average against opponents. Still, the Pacers struggled to consistently break through Boston’s defense, especially without Mathurin’s scoring punch.

Despite the odds, Indiana showed flashes of resilience. The Pacers had a 2-1 record against the spread in their previous three meetings with the Celtics and had covered the spread in four of six games this season when underdogs by 11 points or more. That fighting spirit was evident as Pascal Siakam boxed out Queta for a tough rebound and as Quenton Jackson tried to contain Anfernee Simons on the perimeter.

Statistically, the game lived up to its billing as a high-scoring affair. Boston entered the night averaging 116.7 points per game, while Indiana was putting up 110.1 points per contest. The teams’ combined averages were just above the over/under line, and both squads had a history of games going over the total—22 of Boston’s 42 games and 22 of Indiana’s 44 had eclipsed the 226.5-point threshold this season.

Betting models and analysts leaned heavily toward Boston not just to win, but to cover the spread. As FOX Sports noted, “Boston has been the favorite in 28 games this season and has come away with the win 19 times (67.9%) in those contests.” The Pacers, by contrast, had managed just seven wins in 37 games as underdogs (18.9%). Projections from multiple outlets—including a predicted final score of 122-106 in favor of the Celtics—reflected the prevailing expectation that Boston would control the game from start to finish.

Yet, as any seasoned NBA fan knows, nothing is guaranteed until the final buzzer. The Pacers had managed to beat the spread in 22 of their 44 games this season, and Boston’s home record against the spread (9-10) suggested there was at least some room for a surprise. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulated the game 10,000 times, revealed that its against-the-spread pick hit in 60% of simulations—a tantalizing statistic for those looking for an edge.

As the second half unfolded, both teams continued to trade baskets, with the Celtics’ balanced attack keeping them in control. Jaylen Brown continued to drive hard, drawing fouls and creating opportunities for his teammates. Pascal Siakam answered with mid-range jumpers and tough finishes at the rim, but Indiana’s lack of depth and road woes made it difficult to mount a sustained comeback.

With the action ongoing and both teams fighting for every possession, fans at TD Garden were treated to a classic Eastern Conference battle. The Celtics, determined to secure the season series, leaned on their stars and depth, while the Pacers, shorthanded but gritty, looked to defy the odds and steal a win on the road.

As the clock ticked down, the Celtics maintained their edge, but the Pacers refused to go quietly. The final outcome remained undecided as the game entered its closing minutes, leaving fans and bettors alike glued to the action. With both teams showcasing their strengths—and a few surprises along the way—this matchup delivered the kind of excitement only NBA basketball can provide.