The stage is set for a high-stakes NBA showdown as the surging Cleveland Cavaliers travel to the Paycom Center to face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, February 22, 2026. With tipoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and the game airing nationally on ABC, this matchup has all the makings of a potential NBA Finals preview, as both squads sit near the top of their respective conferences.
The Cavaliers, boasting a 36-21 record, are riding a wave of momentum. They’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and are currently on a seven-game winning streak, including five consecutive road victories. Since acquiring James Harden, Cleveland has looked like a new team, going undefeated in the five games he’s played. Their recent form has not gone unnoticed by oddsmakers, who have installed the Cavs as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Cleveland enters as a -180 favorite on the moneyline, while Oklahoma City sits at +150 to pull off the upset.
On the other side, the Thunder (43-14) have maintained their grip atop the Western Conference but are facing adversity. Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen) and versatile forward Jalen Williams (hamstring) remain sidelined, leaving Oklahoma City shorthanded. Without SGA, the Thunder’s offense has taken a significant hit, dropping by 11.8 points per 100 possessions. The absence of both SGA and Williams has further exposed their depth, and the team is just 1-3 in games missing both players, with Ajay Mitchell also unavailable during this stretch.
Despite these setbacks, Oklahoma City has managed to stay competitive, going 6-6 in their last 12 games. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder’s standout rookie, has stepped up, and projections indicate he could be the only Thunder player to eclipse the 20-point mark in this contest. Still, the Thunder’s offense has become more perimeter-oriented without SGA, with their three-point shooting percentage actually climbing to 38.6% (up from 35.8% with SGA). However, their points in the paint have dropped by 7.2 per game, and they’ve been more vulnerable on the defensive glass.
For Cleveland, the formula for success has revolved around a balanced attack and improved defense. The Cavaliers rank eighth in offensive rebound rate, and the addition of Jaylon Tyson has added size and shooting to the rotation. Tyson has been particularly deadly from the corners, hitting 47% of his attempts and leading the team in corner threes. “Jaylon Tyson leads the Cavs in 3-point attempts from the corner and shoots 47% on them,” according to recent analysis.
The Cavaliers’ defense has also turned a corner, especially since Keon Ellis joined the squad. With Ellis on the floor since the trade deadline, Cleveland has posted an impressive 98 defensive rating over 100 minutes. This defensive uptick could prove crucial against a Thunder side that now relies more heavily on outside shooting. The Cavs, however, have shown some vulnerability on the perimeter, ranking 20th in opponent three-point rate and 27th in opponent three-point percentage—an area the Thunder may look to exploit.
Betting trends and models have been buzzing about this matchup. SportsLine’s projection model simulated the game 10,000 times and projects the Under (226.5) to hit 55.5% of the time, with an expected total of 224 points. The model also suggests that the Cavaliers’ defense and the Thunder’s depleted offense could keep the score lower than expected. “The Thunder, who have gone Under in two straight games, simply don’t have the same kind of offensive upside when Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams are out, and the model projects that Chet Holmgren will be the only player to put up more than 20 points for OKC,” reports SportsLine.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers are a popular pick to cover the 4.5-point spread, while the Over/Under has generated debate. Some experts favor the Over due to both teams’ efficiency and three-point volume, while others side with the Under, citing the Thunder’s recent scoring struggles and Cleveland’s improved defense. Notably, the Cavaliers have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games, yielding a 25% return on investment for backers.
Key individual matchups will be worth watching. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form one of the league’s most dynamic backcourts, and with the Thunder missing key perimeter defenders, Cleveland may have the edge. Harden’s playmaking has steadied the offense, dishing at least nine assists in two of his five games with the Cavs. Evan Mobley, meanwhile, remains a force inside, routinely clearing his points, rebounds, and assists props.
On the Thunder’s side, rookie Jared McCain has emerged as a potential X-factor, knocking down two or more triples in four of his last seven games. With the Cavs’ tendency to allow three-point looks, McCain’s shooting could be a wild card for Oklahoma City. Still, the Thunder’s success may hinge on their ability to control the boards and generate enough offense without their stars.
There are also strategic wrinkles to consider. The Cavaliers’ pick-and-roll coverage is among the league’s best, but it sometimes leaves shooters open beyond the arc—a risk against a Thunder team shooting well from deep. Conversely, Oklahoma City’s defense has given up a high volume of threes, ranking 25th in opponent three-point percentage. This could open the door for Cleveland’s shooters, especially Tyson, to make a significant impact.
With both teams eyeing deep playoff runs, Sunday’s clash offers a valuable measuring stick. The Cavaliers look to extend their winning streak and continue their ascent in the Eastern Conference, while the Thunder hope to weather the storm of injuries and prove they can hang with the league’s elite even when shorthanded. The betting market and advanced models slightly favor Cleveland, but Oklahoma City’s resilience and home-court advantage can’t be discounted.
As the action unfolds in Oklahoma City, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if the Cavaliers can keep their red-hot form going or if the Thunder can pull off an upset despite missing their stars. With playoff implications and potential Finals preview hype, this Sunday matinee promises plenty of drama and intrigue—don’t blink, because anything can happen in the NBA.