The NBA’s Sunday matinee at the Paycom Center set the stage for a cross-conference clash that many are calling a potential NBA Finals preview. The Cleveland Cavaliers, boasting a 36-21 record and riding a blistering seven-game win streak, traveled to Oklahoma City to take on the Western Conference-leading Thunder, who stood at 43-14. With tipoff at 1:00 p.m. ET, the anticipation was palpable—the kind of matchup that has fans and analysts alike buzzing about what June might bring.
Heading into the contest, oddsmakers gave the Cavaliers a slight edge. Cleveland was pegged as a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Moneyline bettors saw the Cavs at -180, while those looking for an upset found the Thunder at +150. It’s worth noting that this was just the second time all season that Oklahoma City entered a game as an underdog, a testament to their dominance despite recent adversity.
The Thunder’s recent adversity? Injuries—specifically to their superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen) and Jalen Williams (hamstring). Both were ruled out for this high-profile matchup, and the Thunder’s offense has suffered in their absence. Without SGA, Oklahoma City’s offense has been 11.8 points per 100 possessions worse, their offensive rating dipping to 114.1. They’ve also given up 7.1 more points per game in the paint, a vulnerability that has not gone unnoticed by opposing coaches.
Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder’s third-best on-ball creator, has also missed this stretch, further complicating matters for Oklahoma City. The team has gone 5-3 without SGA, but just 1-3 when both SGA and Jalen Williams are sidelined. The Thunder’s defensive numbers haven’t fared much better, with their defensive rating slipping to 110.1 in games without their stars.
Despite these challenges, Oklahoma City has managed to keep its head above water, thanks in part to a favorable schedule—their recent opponents had a combined 49.3% win percentage. But the absence of SGA has forced the Thunder to adjust their offensive approach. Points in the paint have plummeted, but their three-point rate has surged. Interestingly, the Thunder have actually shot better from beyond the arc without SGA, hitting 38.6% of their threes compared to 35.8% with him on the floor. That’s a wrinkle the Cavaliers couldn’t ignore, given their own struggles defending the perimeter. Cleveland ranks 20th in opponent three-point rate and 27th in opponent three-point percentage, a byproduct of their aggressive pick-and-roll coverage that sometimes leaves shooters open.
But the Cavaliers have been a revelation since acquiring James Harden. They’d already turned a corner, but Harden’s arrival has supercharged their offense. Cleveland has now won 12 of its last 13 games, and the team’s size advantage has become even more pronounced with Evan Mobley back in the fold and Jaylon Tyson earning significant minutes. The Cavs rank 8th in offensive rebound rate, a key factor against a Thunder frontcourt that, while anchored by Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, can be vulnerable on the glass.
Defensively, Cleveland has also made strides. The addition of Keon Ellis has paid immediate dividends; in over 100 minutes since the trade deadline, the Cavs have posted a stingy 98 defensive rating with him on the court. That kind of defensive tenacity is exactly what’s needed against a Thunder team that, even shorthanded, can get hot from deep.
Jaylon Tyson’s emergence as a corner-three specialist has added another dimension to Cleveland’s attack. Tyson leads the Cavs in corner threes, shooting a blistering 47% from that spot. With the Thunder giving up the most corner threes in the league, Tyson’s three-point prop became one of the hottest bets of the afternoon. As one analyst put it, "Jaylon Tyson leads the Cavs in 3-point attempts from the corner and shoots 47% on them." Bettors flocked to his over 1.5 three-pointers made, with odds sitting at +110.
On the betting front, the consensus best bets were clear: Cavaliers -4.5 on the spread, the Over at 226.5 total points, and Tyson to hit at least two triples. Yet, not everyone was convinced the game would turn into a shootout. The SportsLine Projection Model, after simulating the game 10,000 times, projected a total of 224 points and gave the Under a 55.5% chance of hitting. The model also predicted Chet Holmgren would be the only Thunder player to eclipse 20 points, underscoring just how much the team misses its stars.
Looking at the broader trends, Cleveland has been on fire against the spread, going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games and 11-2-1 ATS in February. The Cavaliers have also been road warriors, winning five straight away from home. However, Oklahoma City has been a thorn in their side—the Cavs were just 1-5 ATS and 1-5 straight up in their last six meetings against the Thunder. The total has gone over in four of Cleveland’s last five road games against Oklahoma City, suggesting a high-scoring affair might still be in the cards.
Statistically, the matchup is fascinating. Cleveland enters with the NBA’s third-ranked offense (119.81 points per game), while Oklahoma City boasts the league’s stingiest defense (107.65 points allowed). The Cavs shoot 47.74% from the field (9th), but the Thunder’s defense holds opponents to just 43.40% shooting (1st). On the boards, Cleveland’s 44.70 rebounds per game (12th) will be tested by OKC’s 45.35 (24th), especially with Max Strus sidelined due to a Jones fracture surgery.
Recent form also favors Cleveland. In their last ten games, the Cavs have racked up impressive wins over teams like Denver, Sacramento, and the Clippers. Their offense has been humming, with multiple outings over 120 points and a consistent barrage of made threes. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, has cooled off, going 6-6 in their last twelve games—a far cry from their early-season dominance.
So, what does it all mean as the action unfolds in Oklahoma City? With the Thunder shorthanded and the Cavaliers surging, all eyes are on whether Cleveland can finally solve its OKC puzzle and keep its hot streak alive. The game remains ongoing, with both teams fighting for every possession and fans on the edge of their seats. One thing’s for sure: if this is a preview of June basketball, we’re in for a treat.