The annual winter migration of Canadian “snowbirds”—retirees and vacationers escaping the icy grip of northern winters—has long been a defining ritual for both Canada and the United States. Each year, hundreds of thousands of Canadians typically pack up and head south, flocking to sun-soaked states like Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California. Their presence is more than just a seasonal spectacle; it’s a vital economic engine, pumping billions into the U.S. economy and supporting countless jobs in hospitality, real estate, and retail.
This year, however, the snowbird tide is ebbing. According to a November 9, 2025, report from The Guardian, the familiar migration is expected to thin noticeably, with many Canadians opting to stay home or seek warmer weather elsewhere. The reasons are as complex as they are compelling: heightened political tensions, new and confusing immigration rules, and the chilling effects of President Donald Trump’s second term and his administration’s policies.
“There’s some resistance. There’s always someone calls in [from Canada] and says, ‘No, no more US! Before we were friends, and now enemies,’” said Richard Clavet, a Fort Lauderdale motel and apartment rental owner who has catered to Canadian snowbirds for over three decades. Clavet told The Guardian that bookings have declined, rates have been lowered to attract guests, and, perhaps most alarming, “in the summer, what was bad was they also didn’t book for the following year, and that hurt us financially.”
The numbers back up Clavet’s observations. The Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada found that only 26% of Canadians intend to take a U.S. vacation this winter, down sharply from 41% the year before. Among those aged 61 and older—the heart of the snowbird demographic—just 10% plan to visit, compared to one in three the previous year. These findings echo data from Statistics Canada, which revealed a roughly one-third drop in Canadians returning from the U.S. by car and plane in September 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. It marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
Why the sudden chill? Political friction is a major culprit. President Trump’s imposition of trade tariffs and his frequent barbs at Canadian leaders have soured cross-border relations. The rhetoric—sometimes dismissive, sometimes outright antagonistic—has left many Canadians feeling unwelcome. “Growing aversion to America can be chalked up to political tensions over Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state rhetoric as well as rising costs and exchange rates—the loonie is worth about 71 cents US,” Will McAleer, executive director of the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada, told The Canadian Press.
But the impact isn’t just psychological. From December 2025, all non-American visitors to the U.S. will be photographed on both arrival and departure, and Canadians staying more than 30 days must register their whereabouts with the U.S. government. Enforcement of these rules has been inconsistent, leading to confusion and anxiety. Ryan Rachkovsky, director of research and communications at the Canadian Snowbird Association, noted, “There is so much inconsistency right now, based on the border officer that you get, based on the port of entry that you’re entering the US from, and because of that we’re providing our members with a warning and letting them know that this might be a possibility.” Some travelers have faced secondary screening, including biometric data collection, while others have experienced smooth entries.
For many Canadians, these changes are more than an inconvenience—they’re a deterrent. “With my father being Haitian, there’s a certain fear around being able to go to the United States,” said Nathalie Morisseau, who opted for a vacation in the Dominican Republic with her daughter instead of the U.S. “It’s not attractive. And it’s scary,” she told The Canadian Press at Montreal airport.
The economic consequences are already being felt. The snowbird economy has traditionally contributed an estimated $20.5 billion annually to the U.S., supporting jobs and generating tax revenue. The U.S. Travel Association has warned that even a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could mean two million fewer trips and $2.1 billion in lost spending. In California alone, Canadian visitor spending is projected to fall from $3.7 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025. “That’s a gut punch to the industry,” said Ryan Becker, a senior vice-president at Visit California, which has launched a “California Loves Canada” campaign to woo back travelers.
Meanwhile, Canada’s own tourism industry is thriving. From May to August 2025, the sector reported record revenue of CA$59 billion ($42 billion), a 6% increase over 2014, as more Canadians chose to vacation at home. American visitors to Canada, on the other hand, dropped by 1.7% during the same period.
For some, the decision to avoid the U.S. is driven by economics as much as politics. The weak Canadian dollar, higher travel costs, and rising insurance premiums in Florida are making the snowbird lifestyle less attainable. “Economic and political headwinds are making the snowbird lifestyle more difficult,” Rachkovsky said. “In Florida, prices are going up, particularly for things like insurance coverage, and the Canadian dollar isn’t helping as well, so it’s a much more complex picture than just looking at it from a political standpoint.”
Some Canadians are even considering selling their U.S. properties. More than half (54%) of Canadians with homes in the U.S. are contemplating a sale within the next year, with 62% citing political tensions as their primary motivation. Real estate agents in popular snowbird destinations report a surge in listings and a drop in rental bookings.
Still, the migration isn’t grinding to a halt. Nearly 1.8 million Canadians returned from the U.S. by land or air in September 2025, according to Statistics Canada. Many snowbirds, especially those who own property or have strong social ties, remain committed to their annual southern sojourns. “They’re unlikely to leave their condo or their house empty for the winter,” said Stephen Fine, founder of Snowbird Advisor Insurance. About 70% of snowbirds travel by car, making the U.S. their only practical option if they want to bring their vehicles.
Others are quietly continuing their visits, engaging in what Will McAleer calls “quiet travelling”—taking trips south but keeping a low profile, avoiding social media posts and openly discussing their plans only with close friends.
For those who do cross the border, the motivations are varied. Some, like Alanni Duenas, travel for family events despite concerns over U.S. immigration enforcement. “ICE just coming out of nowhere, taking them, they don’t hear from them,” Duenas said, recounting the experience of relatives in Chicago. Others, like business traveler Catherine Paquin, say, “Business is business. We don’t have a choice.”
With airlines like Air Canada ramping up flights to the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe while cutting U.S.-bound capacity, and with alternative destinations like Mexico growing in popularity, the snowbird landscape is shifting. “There are countries all over the world looking to attract people to come and stay for winter seasons, and they’re going to look even more attractive when an established destination like the southern part of the US is no longer somewhere Americans and many Canadians feel comfortable going,” said Valorie Crooks of Simon Fraser University.
Still, some believe the allure of sunshine will prove irresistible once the first Canadian snowstorm hits. “We haven’t even had the first snowstorm yet,” said Jill Wykes, editor of Snowbird Advisor. “That normally makes people want to go.”
This winter, the snowbird tradition stands at a crossroads, buffeted by politics, policy, and the unpredictable winds of change. Whether the migration rebounds or continues to dwindle remains to be seen, but for now, the warmth of the American South feels just a little farther away for many Canadians.