In the wake of a shifting political landscape and evolving trade dynamics between Canada and the United States, both nations are bracing for what could be a pivotal chapter in their longstanding relationship. On December 10, 2025, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra downplayed mounting concerns that America’s newly released national security strategy could pave the way for direct U.S. government support for political movements north of the border. Yet, as the ink dries on that strategy document, Canadian officials and observers are sounding the alarm about the risk of interference—and the future of trade remains uncertain.
The U.S. national security strategy, as reported by CBC News, explicitly states that the government will “reward and encourage” governments, political parties, and movements that are “broadly aligned” with its principles and strategy. That language, critics warn, is open-ended enough to be interpreted as a green light for influencing domestic politics in allied nations—including Canada. Hoekstra, however, sought to reassure Canadians by emphasizing that the wording could be read in multiple ways. “Let’s just kind of see how this plays out, OK,” he told The Canadian Press. “It can be interpreted in a bunch of different ways.”
Despite Hoekstra’s attempt to tamp down fears, he did not offer a categorical denial that the U.S. might get involved in Canadian domestic politics. Instead, he pointed the finger at Ontario’s government for its own foray into American political discourse. Ontario, he noted, ran an ad campaign on U.S. television networks quoting former President Ronald Reagan’s criticism of tariffs—a move Hoekstra described as “a specifically targeted political intervention against the president.” He added, “I don’t remember many Canadians expressing much concern about the political engagement of a Canadian government into U.S. politics.”
Former Canadian diplomats and policy experts, however, are not convinced by Hoekstra’s reassurances. Bob Rae, Canada’s former ambassador to the United Nations, wrote in Policy Magazine that Canada has been “put on notice that the current United States government will be actively supporting political parties and movements in our country that align themselves with Trumpian policies.” Artur Wilczynski, another former diplomat, called the strategy “deeply problematic,” warning that it may signal U.S. support for actors aligned with Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, or even those “overtly hostile to Canada.”
Wilczynski elaborated that the U.S. could use “various instruments of trade craft of their broader national security apparatus to achieve their objectives in the hemisphere.” This, he suggested, could manifest in a range of ways—from undermining Canada’s immigration and refugee system to providing support for separatist groups advocating for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. “They will take advantage of whatever tools they have, whether it’s funding, whether it’s overt or covert. They’re basically hinting that they’ll do it,” Wilczynski told CBC News.
Hoekstra, for his part, insisted that the Canada-U.S. relationship has moved beyond the era of jokes about Canada becoming the 51st state. He cited a recent episode at an October meeting in Egypt, where President Trump accidentally referred to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as “president.” Carney responded with humor—“I’m glad you upgraded me to president”—to which Trump replied, “at least I didn’t say governor.” Hoekstra offered this as evidence that both leaders are now “joking about it” and that the notion no longer holds serious weight.
Still, the specter of interference looms large for many. Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor of international relations at Carleton University, described the new national security strategy as “a disturbing read for America’s allies, including Canada.” She cautioned that the pursuit of U.S. objectives might not always involve official state instruments. Instead, the Trump administration could leverage segments of its political coalition—such as large technology firms or the religious right—to mount influence campaigns in Canada. Carvin pointed to the significant amount of donations to the Freedom Convoy that originated from the United States, as well as Donald Trump Jr.’s public endorsement of the movement that paralyzed Ottawa for weeks in 2022. “What is concerning to me is that there’s a number of other ways to achieve these objectives that may not even use the instruments of state,” she explained.
Amid these tensions, Canada is also preparing for a major transition in its diplomatic presence in Washington. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada’s next ambassador to the United States will soon be appointed, with a window of opportunity to lay the groundwork for the next phase of trade relations. As reported by The Canadian Press, Carney noted that Canada has already completed its domestic consultations on renewing the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), while the United States is just beginning its own review. “The review process will gather force in the new year, so there’s a window,” Carney said, signaling that early 2026 will be a critical period for trilateral trade negotiations.
The current ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, revealed she will end her tenure early in 2026, believing it is the right time for a new team to see the CUSMA review “through to its conclusion.” Carney praised Hillman as “an exceptional public servant,” expressing gratitude for her dedication and service. Speculation is swirling that business executive Mark Wiseman may be in line for the ambassadorship, but Carney declined to comment, promising an official announcement in the coming weeks.
The backdrop to these diplomatic shifts is a U.S. administration that has grown increasingly vocal about its grievances with Canada. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. election, the White House cited the flow of fentanyl and irregular migrants from Canada as justification for slapping tariffs on Canadian goods—a move that has further strained bilateral ties. In October 2025, Trump abruptly halted trade talks with Canada in response to the Ontario government’s anti-tariff ad aired in U.S. markets.
Despite these headwinds, Canadian officials remain committed to maintaining a robust relationship with their southern neighbor. Liberal Member of Parliament Ben Carr described Canada-U.S. relations as “of critical importance,” emphasizing the need to continue making progress. While he acknowledged the ambassador’s central role in trade negotiations, Carr cautioned against placing the entire burden of a future agreement on one individual. “Key ministers, department officials and trade negotiators also play roles,” he said, underscoring the collaborative nature of Canada’s approach.
As the review of the trilateral trade deal approaches and both nations grapple with questions of sovereignty and influence, the coming months will test the resilience of the Canada-U.S. partnership. With new strategies, new faces, and old anxieties in play, the stakes for both countries have rarely been higher.