Canada’s defense and trade ambitions converged in Tokyo this week, as the country’s officials signaled a possible new chapter for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) and secured a record-breaking haul of commercial agreements. On June 26, 2026, Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty met with his Japanese counterpart, Shinjiro Koizumi, and publicly expressed interest in the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP)—a multinational initiative to develop the next-generation Tempest fighter jet, currently spearheaded by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan.
“We are interested in learning more about it. I’ll take it back to my team and see what it looks like,” McGuinty told Reuters after the meeting, marking the first time a senior Canadian official has openly discussed the possibility of joining GCAP. According to Breaking Defense, McGuinty described the project as a “promising initiative” and indicated Canada is considering observer status, which would grant access to critical program data before any deeper commitment is made.
GCAP’s centerpiece, the Tempest fighter, is envisioned as a sixth-generation aircraft with stealth, extreme range, and payload capabilities designed to address both Indo-Pacific and Arctic security challenges. BAE Systems is currently developing a demonstrator in the UK, targeting a first flight by the end of 2027. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto welcomed the prospect of Canadian involvement, stating, “We would be completely willing, because the more there are, the greater the chances of creating something and bringing down costs.” Crosetto further identified Canada as “the country most interested [in GCAP] at the moment.”
This overture comes as Canada reconsiders its long-term fighter procurement plans amid escalating costs and diplomatic friction with the United States. The government had previously committed to buying 88 F-35As to replace its aging CF-18 Hornets, but a review launched by Prime Minister Mark Carney in 2025—triggered by a cost surge from $19 billion to $27.7 billion—has cast doubt over the full order. “The review of the purchase of the F-35s is continuing… We are taking the necessary time to study very, very closely the question of the fighter fleet,” McGuinty said to the Senate’s defense committee in April 2026.
Canada has already committed to purchasing 16 F-35As, with four paid in full and parts for eight more secured. The first deliveries are expected in 2026 for pilot training at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. Meanwhile, the RCAF maintains a fleet of about 75 CF-18A/B+ jets and has supplemented its ranks with 18 upgraded F/A-18s acquired from Australia, plus seven spares.
The split-buy concept—acquiring both the F-35 and another advanced fighter—has been floated as a way to hedge against unforeseen operational demands and political risks. Former Defense Minister Bill Blair voiced support for such an approach, asking, “What happens if you have to persist in that space for months and months and years? The tool that you use, is it the right tool to do that job?” He added, “We need to have a whole wide range of capability sets to deal with all the eventualities that we could face.”
Canada’s interest in GCAP complicates its previous consideration of the Swedish Saab Gripen E, which had been touted as a candidate for a dual-fleet strategy alongside the F-35. Saab, eager to secure Canadian support, even offered domestic assembly of the jet and remains a contender for Canada’s future airborne early warning and control needs via its GlobalEye platform.
Should Ottawa pursue the Tempest, however, it would likely face delivery delays beyond the GCAP’s 2035 target, as Canada would be fourth in line behind the founding partners. This would necessitate further investment in maintaining the aging CF-18 fleet, which is already being stretched to its operational limits. As The War Zone notes, “Supporting them will become increasingly problematic.”
The Tempest’s design, with its extraordinary range and payload—reportedly twice that of the F-35A—and the possibility of flying across the Atlantic without refueling, is particularly attractive for a country with Canada’s vast and remote territories. The jet’s planned arsenal includes air-to-air missiles with greater range than those used by current GCAP partners. Given the increasing capabilities of Chinese and Russian fifth-generation aircraft and missiles, such features are not just luxuries but necessities for safeguarding Canadian sovereignty, especially in the strategically sensitive Arctic region.
As Lt. Gen. Jamie Speiser-Blanchet, commander of the RCAF, previously explained, “Both China and Russia have fifth-generation fighter aircraft and fifth-generation missiles that are able to go at much greater speeds and with much more that are holding Western allies at risk at this moment in time.”
Yet, joining GCAP at this stage presents its own hurdles. The lion’s share of industrial work and program direction has already been divided among the UK, Italy, and Japan. Canada would likely have to accept a more limited role, perhaps buying the Tempest “off the shelf” rather than reaping significant industrial benefits. Similar challenges have faced other prospective partners, including India, Saudi Arabia, and Poland, each expressing varying degrees of interest in GCAP.
Even as Canada weighs its fighter options, the Tokyo visit yielded more than defense headlines. In parallel with GCAP discussions, the Team Canada trade mission delivered a landmark $1.7 billion in commercial deals with Japanese partners—the largest sum ever secured during such a mission. Over 300 delegates from 175 Canadian organizations participated in the three-day event, which followed a strategic partnership announced during Prime Minister Carney’s March 2026 visit to Tokyo.
Federal Minister of International Trade Maninder Sidhu, who witnessed 14 agreement signings, called the outcome “trade diversification in action: Canadian businesses signing real agreements, opening new markets, and deepening our partnership with Japan, one of our most important partners in the Indo-Pacific.”
The deals spanned sectors from defense technology to climate innovation. Notably, Mitsubishi Electric selected MDA Space Ltd. to support defense satellite communications for Japan’s Ministry of Defence. MDA Space will manufacture and test advanced antenna solutions in Montreal, with its UK operations supporting core technology. In the realm of climate solutions, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. invested an eight-figure sum—over $10 million—in Deep Sky, a Canadian company specializing in direct air capture carbon removal, to support the emerging Japan–Canada carbon removal corridor. Megan Shay, Deep Sky’s vice-president of communications, described the investment as “significant” and “the first of its kind for the bank.”
Sidhu underscored the broader significance: “Investments like this help strengthen commercial ties between Canada and Japan while supporting the growth of innovative climate solutions developed in Canada and deployed globally.” The agreements, he noted, are concrete outcomes, not mere promises of future cooperation.
As Ottawa re-evaluates its defense posture and expands its commercial presence in Asia, the events in Tokyo illustrate a Canada that is both diversifying its alliances and seeking greater strategic autonomy. Whether the Tempest will ultimately join the RCAF remains an open question, but the country’s willingness to explore new partnerships—military and economic alike—signals a pragmatic shift in how it navigates a rapidly changing world.