California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and closely watched contests in the state’s recent history. With Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited and unable to seek reelection, the scramble to succeed him has exposed deep fissures and anxieties within the Democratic Party, while Republicans eye a rare opening in the country’s largest blue state. The drama is heightened by California’s unique “jungle primary” system, which advances the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party, raising the real—if still unlikely—specter that Democrats could be shut out of the November ballot altogether.
According to Politico, as of mid-December 2025, the Democratic field is more crowded than ever. Eight major candidates have declared: Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former state lawmaker Ian Calderon. With four months remaining until the filing deadline, Attorney General Rob Bonta is mulling a run, Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso is still undecided, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan hasn’t closed the door on a late entry. In the last month alone, Swalwell and Steyer have jumped into the fray, further complicating the picture.
Meanwhile, the Republican field, though smaller, is not without intrigue. Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco and businessperson and TV personality Steve Hilton are the main contenders, joined recently by entrepreneur and podcaster Jon Slavet. Their presence is amplified by the possibility that, if Democratic votes splinter among too many candidates, two Republicans could slip through the primary and face off in the general election—a scenario that, while estimated by political data expert Paul Mitchell to be only about a 10% chance, is causing sleepless nights among Democratic strategists. As Mitchell told Politico, “It’s a parlor game in Sacramento now,” but warned that if Democrats remain clustered together in the spring, “then pandemonium should strike.”
These fears are not unfounded. Party registration numbers, reported on December 16, 2025, show that California is projected to be about 40% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 35% Independent or decline to state by Election Day in November 2026. While this breakdown has remained relatively stable since the late 1900s—when a surge of Latino voters shifted Democratic after the 1994 Proposition 187, which sought to deny services to undocumented immigrants—the current political turbulence is less about demographics and more about the mechanics of the race and the personalities involved.
The problem for Democrats isn’t just the number of candidates, but the lack of a clear, charismatic front-runner. As former Assembly Speaker and San Francisco mayor Willie Brown put it, “The field is not considered of a quality that you as a Democrat would expect in California. We’re still pretty much carried away with stardom, with individuals who have some impact … We don’t have any candidates like that at the moment.” Brown’s lament echoes a broader sense of unease among party insiders who recall the days when figures like Newsom, Jerry Brown, and Nancy Pelosi dominated the political landscape, shaping both state and national agendas.
That vacuum of star power has had real consequences. Donors have not coalesced around a single contender, major endorsements are on hold, and most interest groups are hedging their bets. Even the influential Service Employees International Union has tweaked its endorsement process to allow members to hear from all candidates, including those who might enter late. “The Democratic bench is filled with candidates who have dedicated themselves to improving the lives of all Californians. Republicans can’t say the same,” insisted Rusty Hicks, chair of the state Democratic Party, in comments reported by Politico. Still, the absence of a galvanizing favorite has left the race as open as ever, with polls showing a plurality of voters still undecided.
Complicating matters further are a string of controversies that have dogged the campaign. Katie Porter has faced viral videos showing her in heated exchanges with a reporter and a staffer. Xavier Becerra’s campaign has been rocked by a federal investigation into two of his top aides for allegedly stealing campaign funds. Attorney General Rob Bonta, himself a potential candidate, has been linked to a separate federal probe involving a Bay Area waste hauler with longstanding ties to his office. For longshot candidates like Tony Thurmond, who has consistently polled in the low single digits, these twists are reason enough to stay in the race and hope for a game-changing development. As Dave Jacobson, a consultant for Thurmond, told Politico, “Other candidates have come and gone, but Tony will be on the ballot in June, and we plan to win.”
Typically, by this point in the cycle—six months before the June primary—the field would have narrowed considerably. But with lackluster fundraising across the board (Steyer’s ability to self-fund being a notable exception), there’s little incentive for anyone to bow out. As former Rep. Katie Porter quipped, “It’s raining men.” Sacramento veterans like Toni Atkins, who ended her own gubernatorial bid in September, predict a “very painful process” of field-winnowing ahead, requiring blunt conversations with candidates who aren’t viable. “Who steps up and plays that role? That will be interesting,” Atkins said. “I think it’s going to be a lot messier than when we had John Burton.”
Indeed, the absence of a political kingmaker like the late John Burton, who could strong-arm candidates into unity, is acutely felt. While some hope for outside players—labor unions, business groups, tribes—to play air traffic controller, others note that even legendary figures like Burton knew the limits of such influence, often quipping, “You can’t tell someone who to marry and you can’t tell someone when to run.”
Governor Newsom, looking ahead to possible White House ambitions, has signaled he will not intervene. Nancy Pelosi, though still wielding influence behind the scenes, is thought less likely to get involved as she approaches retirement. Jerry Brown, now enjoying life on his rural ranch, has shown little appetite for political wrangling.
For Republicans, the opportunity is tantalizing. The combination of Democratic divisions, lack of a breakout star, and the quirks of California’s primary system has created a once-in-a-generation opening. Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, in particular, has been highlighted as a strong contender. If Democratic infighting continues, the GOP could find itself in a position to capture the governor’s mansion for the first time in decades—a remarkable reversal in a state where, since the late 1900s, Republican fortunes have been hamstrung by demographic and political shifts.
As the filing deadline approaches, the pressure on Democrats to unite—or at least narrow the field—will only intensify. Whether they can avoid a historic embarrassment and maintain their grip on California’s highest office may well depend on their ability to find not just a candidate, but a unifying vision that can rally a fractious party and a restless electorate.
