In the heart of the Welsh Valleys, the town of Caerphilly is preparing for a by-election that could upend a century-old political tradition. On October 23, 2025, voters will head to the polls to select a new Member of the Senedd (MS), following the sudden death of Hefin David, who had represented the constituency for nearly a decade. The contest, which might once have seemed a foregone conclusion in Labour’s favor, has become a battleground featuring eight candidates and a swirl of national and local anxieties.
At Bedwas Workmen’s Hall on October 16, six of the eight candidates took the stage for a live televised debate, broadcast by BBC Wales. The atmosphere was charged, the exchanges often feisty, and the issues on the table—public services, the NHS, immigration, and the controversial expansion of the Senedd—cut to the heart of voters’ concerns. The candidates—Richard Tunnicliffe (Welsh Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Gareth Hughes (Wales Green Party), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK), Gareth Potter (Welsh Conservative Party), and Steve Aicheler (Welsh Liberal Democrats)—each sought to convince the crowd and viewers at home that they were the right choice to lead Caerphilly through a period of uncertainty.
For Labour, the stakes could hardly be higher. Caerphilly has never backed any party but Labour in a general or Senedd election since the end of World War I, as reported by LabourList. The town, nestled just a short drive from Cardiff and steeped in the party’s history, has long been considered the “ruby-red jewel” in Labour’s crown. Yet recent polling paints a stark picture: a constituency poll released just days before the debate suggested Labour could plummet to third place, trailing behind both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, with only 12% of the vote—down from the 46% majority secured four years ago. Welsh Labour has downplayed these numbers, dismissing constituency-level polling as unreliable, but even party insiders concede that the campaign has been “difficult, with frustrations on the doorsteps.”
The debate itself was a microcosm of these wider tensions. On the issue of public services, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle pledged to demand more funding from central government to halt “cut after cut,” while Green candidate Gareth Hughes advocated for taxing the rich to protect vital community resources. The fate of local libraries, including the Bedwas site adjacent to the debate venue, became a flashpoint. The Labour-controlled council’s proposal to close ten libraries drew criticism from all sides. Richard Tunnicliffe, Labour’s candidate and a publisher by trade, called libraries the “heart and soul of our communities” and suggested that UK Government Pride of Place funding could be used to keep them open. Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell, however, pointed out the irony: “a Labour council cutting services,” he said, highlighting the complexity of local governance versus party politics.
Pressed on whether his stance was hypocritical, given Labour’s role in the closures, Tunnicliffe rejected the suggestion, instead emphasizing his commitment to community needs. “People want to see their communities respected and flourish again,” he told LabourList. “When you go around listening and you hear their stories, you can see how much it means to people.”
The debate over the NHS was equally heated. Tunnicliffe defended Labour’s record, noting that the Welsh Government had invested an extra £600 million in health this year—“the first year we’ve been able to invest properly,” he said, attributing the change to Labour’s victory at Westminster. Reform UK’s Powell declared there was “not a quick fix” and firmly stated, “I will not vote in any way to privatise the NHS.” Meanwhile, Conservative Gareth Potter criticized spending on “foreign embassies and empty government buildings,” arguing that funds should be redirected to frontline services. Both Whittle and Aicheler, representing Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats respectively, called for better integration of health and social care and for increased investment, ideally with more support from Westminster.
Immigration, though less statistically significant in Caerphilly than in many other parts of the UK (the borough’s immigration rate stands at 2.9%), nonetheless proved a divisive topic. Reform UK’s Powell bluntly asserted that immigration was a problem, although he could not provide more recent figures than the 2021 census. Other candidates and audience members pushed back. “Immigration is being weaponised,” said Tunnicliffe, accusing Reform of seeking to sow division rather than offer solutions. Hughes warned against policies that “demonise” newcomers, while Whittle expressed pride in Wales’ Nation of Sanctuary policy. The real-world impact of the debate was brought home when an audience member, herself part of the 2.9%, told Powell, “I have never felt so unwelcome in my own home town as I do since your party came into Caerphilly with all the rhetoric you bring in.” Powell insisted he was discussing policy, but the audience member replied, “We are human beings.”
Trust in politics, battered by years of shifting allegiances and unmet promises, emerged as a final, unifying concern. Tunnicliffe promised not to “overpromise” and to “work with anybody if it helps effect change.” Hughes, however, accused Labour of squandering 25 years in power: “If you ask people if they feel better off now than they did before, the answer is no.” Whittle pointed to his nearly 50 years in local government as evidence of his trustworthiness, while Powell and Potter both criticized the Welsh Government for pursuing unpopular policies, such as Senedd expansion and the 20mph speed limit. Aicheler, for his part, noted that the new speed limit had reduced road injuries, offering a rare note of optimism.
Behind the scenes, Labour activists acknowledged the scale of the challenge. One party source, speaking to LabourList on condition of anonymity, described the campaign as an “absolute mountain.” National frustrations, unpopular council decisions, and what they called an “anti-Welsh government mood” have all contributed to a “perfect storm.” The resignation of the Labour council leader in Caerphilly, who then endorsed Plaid Cymru, only deepened the sense of crisis. “After 26 years in power, the incumbency penalty is on steroids,” the source said, referencing unpopular policies and the growing appeal of Reform UK among disaffected voters. “We can no longer rely on people voting for us because it’s what was expected of them.”
For Tunnicliffe, the campaign is both a personal and political mission. Inspired by Hefin David’s example, he aims to carry on his predecessor’s legacy, particularly around additional learning needs and community support. “It’s an honour – it’s a daunting honour,” he said. “If you’re not daunted about doing this, I don’t think you’re looking at it right.” Backed by the likes of former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, Tunnicliffe insists that Labour’s roots remain strong in Caerphilly, but he acknowledges the threat posed by Reform UK and the risk of a divided progressive vote.
As the by-election approaches, the outcome is far from certain. With campaign offices for Labour, Reform UK, and Plaid Cymru all within a stone’s throw of each other, the contest has become a vivid symbol of shifting political ground in Wales. The result in Caerphilly will not only decide who represents the town in the Senedd but may also signal the future direction of Welsh—and perhaps even UK—politics.
In a place where the castle’s walls have stood for centuries, the walls of political certainty have rarely looked so fragile.
