The NFC South has been a wild ride all season, but on January 3, 2026, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive by squeaking past the Carolina Panthers 16-14 in a rain-soaked battle at Raymond James Stadium. It was a game defined by slippery turf, gritty defense, and just enough offensive fireworks to keep fans on the edge of their seats. Yet, despite the win, Tampa Bay’s postseason fate remains out of their hands, hinging on the outcome of the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints matchup set for Sunday. For the Panthers, the loss was a gut punch, leaving them hoping for a Falcons win to claim the division themselves.
Heading into the contest, the stakes could not have been higher. The Buccaneers, sitting at 7-9, needed not only a win but also a Saints victory over the Falcons to clinch the NFC South and secure the conference’s No. 4 playoff seed. Meanwhile, the Panthers, at 8-8, could punch their ticket to the postseason with a win or even a tie. The division title and a coveted home playoff game were on the line—something both franchises had been clawing toward through a season filled with ups and downs.
Rain poured down in Tampa, setting the tone for a sloppy, hard-fought first half. Neither offense looked particularly sharp in the opening quarters, but the Buccaneers managed to strike first. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay’s embattled quarterback, showed flashes of his early-season form, leading two scoring drives that put the Bucs up 10-0 late in the first quarter. Mayfield, who started the year as one of the league’s hottest quarterbacks before a midseason slump, completed 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on the night. His favorite target was tight end Cade Otton, who hauled in seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown, including a crucial third-down conversion late in the fourth quarter that effectively sealed the win.
The Panthers, meanwhile, struggled to get anything going offensively in the first half. Carolina ran just 18 plays for 79 yards through two quarters, hampered by the wet conditions and a Buccaneers defense that seemed determined to keep them in check. But a mistake by Mayfield kept Carolina in the hunt. He never saw Panthers linebacker Christian Rozeboom lurking underneath and threw an interception right to him, setting up a short field for Carolina. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young capitalized, hitting tight end Tommy Tremble for an 8-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to 10-7.
Young, who has had a rollercoaster season of his own, finished the game with 24 completions on 35 attempts for 266 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His connection with rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was a bright spot for Carolina, as McMillan caught four passes for 85 yards, including a crucial 40-yard grab on a desperate fourth-down play late in the game. Running back Rico Dowdle, though largely bottled up by Tampa’s front, managed to secure a $1 million incentive by surpassing seven rushing yards, finishing with 10 yards on six carries.
The Buccaneers entered halftime with a 13-7 lead, thanks to a late field goal set up by a 22-yard Mayfield-to-Otton pass. But the lead felt anything but secure, especially with the rain continuing to wreak havoc on both offenses. The third quarter saw both teams struggle to move the ball, with missed opportunities and questionable officiating adding to the chaos. The only scoring came early in the fourth quarter when Tampa Bay’s Chase McLaughlin nailed his third field goal of the day to put the Bucs up 16-7.
Just when it looked like the Buccaneers might cruise to a comfortable finish, the Panthers mounted a late charge. Young engineered Carolina’s longest drive of the game, highlighted by his fourth-down bomb to McMillan and capped off with a contested touchdown catch by Jalen Coker with 2:27 left on the clock. The extra point made it 16-14, setting up a tense finish. With time running out, Tampa Bay leaned on Mayfield and Otton once more, converting a pivotal first down at the two-minute warning that allowed them to bleed precious seconds off the clock before punting the ball away. Carolina, with only a few ticks left, couldn’t muster a miracle.
It was a game that perfectly encapsulated the NFC South’s tumultuous season. Both teams entered the contest with losing records, and the eventual division champion—be it Tampa Bay or Carolina—will become just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 record. The last to do so? The 2022 Buccaneers, who snuck in at 8-9 during Tom Brady’s final campaign. As one observer put it, "The Buccaneers or Panthers will be just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record."
For Tampa Bay, the win snapped a brutal stretch in which they had lost seven of their previous eight games. Running back Bucky Irving was a workhorse, grinding out 85 yards on 26 carries, while the receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. was largely held in check, combining for just two catches and 34 yards. Mayfield, asked about the pressure of the moment, didn’t mince words: "I never thought I’d see a day where I’m rooting for the Saints," longtime Bucs linebacker Lavonte David told reporters, highlighting the bizarre reality of Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes now resting on their rivals’ performance.
On the other side, the Panthers were left to rue missed opportunities and a bizarre failed flea flicker that resulted in a fumble and a crucial Buccaneers recovery. The loss also continued Carolina’s streak of alternating wins and losses—an odd pattern that has defined their season. Bryce Young, reflecting on the situation, admitted, "I might not even watch, to be honest with you. I might just see how it ends up. It’s on us for that being our reality. We had an opportunity to take it. Now we have to leave it in someone else’s hands."
Looking ahead, all eyes shift to Sunday’s matchup between the Falcons and Saints. If Atlanta prevails, the Panthers will back into the division title. If the Saints win or the game ends in a tie, Tampa Bay will claim the NFC South crown and host a playoff game next weekend. Notably, the Saints will be without star receiver Chris Olave, who was ruled out with a blood clot in his lung—a development that could tip the scales in the Falcons’ favor.
So, the NFC South drama is far from over. One way or another, a team with a losing record will emerge from this flawed but fiercely competitive division to host a playoff game. For now, the Buccaneers can only wait and hope, while the Panthers are left to wonder what might have been. The next chapter will be written soon, and every fan in Tampa and Carolina will be glued to their screens as the fate of their teams hangs in the balance.