The 2026 Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open is heating up, and Thursday’s action promises some electric matchups as the tournament’s Round of 16 unfolds. All eyes are on the anticipated clash between No. 2 seed Alexander Bublik, currently ranked 11th in the world, and Botic Van de Zandschulp, the Dutchman holding the 75th spot in the ATP rankings. For tennis fans and punters alike, this duel isn’t just about rankings—it’s a test of history, momentum, and nerves on the hard courts of Hong Kong.
Bublik enters the match as the betting favorite, with odds of -210 reflecting his recent surge in form and higher ATP status. Van de Zandschulp, meanwhile, comes in as the underdog at +160, but don’t count him out just yet. Based on the implied probability from the moneyline, Van de Zandschulp boasts a 67.7% chance to win—numbers that might surprise those only glancing at the rankings.
This encounter marks the fourth career meeting between Bublik and Van de Zandschulp. The Dutchman leads the head-to-head 2-1, although both of his victories came in grueling three-setters, including one win by retirement. However, Bublik had the upper hand in their most recent battle, cruising to a 6-3, 6-4 victory in last summer’s Kitzbuhel semifinals—part of a red-hot stretch that saw the Kazakh capture four ATP titles and reach the French Open quarterfinals. That run propelled Bublik to his career-high ranking and even earned him a spot as an alternate at the prestigious Nitto ATP Finals.
Van de Zandschulp’s journey to this stage has been a bit rockier. Last season, he compiled a 16-21 record on the main tour, but he’s shown flashes of resilience. In the opening round at Hong Kong, he overcame Jan-Lennard Struff with a 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 victory, demonstrating both grit and the ability to bounce back after a tough second set. Yet, facing Bublik represents a significant step up in competition—a fact not lost on fans or analysts.
Drilling down into the stats, Van de Zandschulp has posted a 17-18 record across 16 hard-court tournaments over the past year. His serve has been a weapon, winning 73.7% of his service games, while he’s managed to break opponents 27.1% of the time. His break-point conversion rate on hard courts sits at an impressive 41.4% (87 of 210 opportunities). Still, his last tournament outing ended in disappointment, falling to Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 32 at the Belgrade Open (6-2, 6-7, 5-7).
Bublik, for his part, has gone 16-14 in hard-court tournaments over the last year, capturing one tournament title along the way. He’s held serve in 82.2% of his service games (309-for-376) and has a 19.6% success rate in return games (71-for-362). His break-point conversion on hard courts is a solid 36.5% (57 out of 156), ranking him 68th on tour in that department. However, his momentum was checked at the Moselle Open, where he was ousted in the Round of 16 by Vitaliy Sachko in a tight three-setter (5-7, 6-3, 5-7).
Interestingly, this will be the first time Bublik and Van de Zandschulp face off on hard courts in a major tournament, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the proceedings. Van de Zandschulp’s career record on hard courts stands at 75-54 over the last 12 years, while Bublik’s recent hard-court form has been strong enough to keep him in the ATP’s upper echelon. The Dutchman did not participate in last year’s Hong Kong Open, making this a fresh opportunity to make his mark in the city.
Elsewhere in the draw, Thursday’s schedule features another compelling showdown as No. 5 seed Lorenzo Sonego takes on local favorite Jerry Shang. Shang, a 20-year-old wildcard from China, is no stranger to the Hong Kong crowd—he won his only ATP title at Chengdu in 2024 and has reached the semifinals in both of his previous appearances at this event. Shang is off to another strong start, having dispatched Francisco Comesana 6-4, 6-4 in the first round. Sonego, meanwhile, opened his campaign with a 6-2, 7-6(4) win over Rei Sakamoto, but his overall record last season (25-29) and a second-round exit in last year’s Hong Kong debut suggest he’s got something to prove.
The winner of the Bublik-Van de Zandschulp clash could potentially face Sonego or Shang in the quarterfinals, depending on how the draw unfolds. That’s not all—other notable names in the tournament include Karen Khachanov and Lorenzo Musetti, both of whom bring their own storylines and head-to-head histories into the mix. Khachanov, for instance, lost in the second round of last year’s Hong Kong Open to Kei Nishikori, while Musetti was knocked out in the quarterfinals by Jaume Antoni Munar Clar.
For Alexander Bublik, the Hong Kong Open represents not just another tournament, but a chance to build on the momentum that’s seen him rise to No. 11 in the world. "I’ve worked hard to get to this point, and every match is an opportunity to grow," Bublik noted in a recent interview, reflecting the hunger that’s fueled his recent surge. Van de Zandschulp, meanwhile, remains undaunted by the underdog tag. After his first-round win, he remarked, "Every match is a new challenge. I’m just focused on playing my game and seeing where it takes me."
With so much on the line and both players bringing distinct strengths to the court, Thursday’s match promises to be a fascinating battle of wills, tactics, and raw talent. Will Bublik’s booming serve and recent run of form carry him through, or can Van de Zandschulp’s consistency and head-to-head edge tip the scales in his favor? Only time will tell, and with the match still to be played, the excitement among fans is palpable.
As the Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open advances toward the business end, the spotlight will remain firmly fixed on these key matchups. Tennis enthusiasts can expect high drama, powerful rallies, and perhaps a few surprises as the tournament’s next quarterfinalists are decided. Stay tuned for all the action—because in Hong Kong this week, every point counts and every match could be the story of the tournament.