As the NBA tips off its 2025-26 season, fantasy basketball enthusiasts are abuzz with talk of breakout guards and shifting draft strategies. With Yahoo’s new High Score format and a fresh set of rankings, the focus is squarely on which guards will make the leap and provide league-winning value for fantasy managers. The spotlight this year is brighter than ever on a mix of established superstars and up-and-coming talents, each poised to shape the fantasy landscape in unique ways.
Let’s start at the very top: Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the undisputed fantasy pillars for this campaign. Dončić, now donning the Los Angeles Lakers jersey, enters his first full season in purple and gold fully healthy and in prime condition. Last season’s “down year” still saw him post an eye-popping 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Now, with LeBron James sidelined by injury, Dončić’s usage rate is set to soar. Analysts predict he’ll flirt with a nightly 30-point triple-double—music to the ears of fantasy owners everywhere. “He’s going to smash,” one analyst declared, highlighting Dončić’s blend of shot volume, all-around production, and improved efficiency as a recipe for a top-three finish across all formats.
On the other side of the fantasy coin, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder stands tall after a legendary previous season. As the reigning scoring leader, MVP, Finals MVP, and champion, SGA’s floor is a top-five ranking in every fantasy format. He and Dončić were the only guards to average over 50 fantasy points per game last year, setting a high bar for anyone hoping to join their elite company.
But the excitement doesn’t stop at the top. The next tier of guards—Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, Trae Young, and James Harden—are all primed to anchor fantasy lineups. Cunningham, in particular, is drawing attention after averaging 48 fantasy points per game last season. With the Detroit Pistons facing a weaker Eastern Conference, there’s hope he could push into the 50 FPPG territory. Anthony Edwards, the offensive engine for the Minnesota Timberwolves, continues his ascent with growing numbers in scoring, rebounds, and assists. “With another leap in efficiency, Edwards could join Tier 1 next season,” analysts suggest, hinting at a potentially seismic shift in the guard hierarchy.
Devin Booker remains a steady source of points and assists for the Phoenix Suns, while Trae Young’s combination of elite assists and scoring keeps him among the best options for points leagues. Even James Harden, now with the Los Angeles Clippers, is expected to remain a high-floor fantasy contributor.
As we move through the tiers, the conversation shifts to established stars like Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey, and Jalen Brunson. Curry, always a threat from beyond the arc, is projected as a top-10 scorer who also contributes across the stat sheet. Maxey’s numbers are expected to rise with Joel Embiid and Paul George likely to miss games, and Brunson remains the engine for the Knicks—though a new head coach may trim his minutes.
Injuries, as always, play a pivotal role in shaping fantasy fortunes. De’Aaron Fox, now with the San Antonio Spurs, finished in the top 10 among guards in FPPG last season but is dealing with a hamstring injury that will keep him out early. Ja Morant, the explosive Memphis Grizzlies guard, sprained his ankle in a workout and is considered week-to-week. Tyler Herro’s ankle surgery will sideline him for 8-12 weeks, and Jalen Green is nursing a hamstring injury as well. These setbacks open the door for others to step up and claim larger roles.
That’s where the breakout candidates come in. Fantasy analysts have identified five guards with the potential to vault into the spotlight this season, especially in Yahoo’s High Score format. Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics is a prime example. With Jayson Tatum sidelined, Pritchard is expected to average 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists—numbers that could make him a nightly fixture in fantasy lineups. Bennedict Mathurin of the Indiana Pacers is set to thrive as a starter, boasting career averages of 20.3 points and 5.9 rebounds in 30 minutes. When Tyrese Haliburton was out, Mathurin’s usage rate spiked to 25%, and he averaged 21 points per game.
Jaden Ivey, returning from injury for the Detroit Pistons, is another name to watch. He posted a solid 17/4/4 line last season and even peaked at 40-50+ fantasy points in five games. Some analysts believe Ivey could contend for Most Improved Player if he continues this trajectory. Andrew Nembhard, also with the Pacers, is poised for a larger role with Haliburton ruled out for the season. He averaged 11 points and 6 assists without Haliburton, and his minutes are expected to climb.
Reed Sheppard, a rookie with the Houston Rockets, could be the surprise package. He averaged 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists on 53% shooting in the preseason, and analysts are bullish about his scoring and defensive impact. “He could surprise with his scoring and defensive impact for the Houston Rockets,” one summary noted, making Sheppard a savvy late-round pick in deeper leagues.
Of course, with upside comes risk. The evolving nature of NBA rotations, potential injuries, and coaching decisions can quickly alter a player’s fantasy outlook. Trades, too, could shake up established roles and open new opportunities. For example, CJ McCollum is expected to play significant minutes for the Washington Wizards until a likely mid-season trade sends him to a contender. Cam Thomas of the Brooklyn Nets remains unsigned, and his contract saga could impact his fantasy value.
Beyond the breakout watch, there are plenty of reliable options in the lower tiers. Immanuel Quickley, Andrew Nembhard, Shaedon Sharpe, and Bennedict Mathurin offer steady production as every-night starters, while rotational assets like Kevin Porter Jr., Keyonte George, and Stephon Castle present upside for those willing to gamble. Even deeper down the list, rookies like Tre Johnson and Rob Dillingham are worth monitoring for their potential to make a splash as the season unfolds.
With so many moving pieces, fantasy managers are advised to keep a close eye on injury reports, lineup announcements, and trade rumors. The start of the NBA season always brings surprises, and this year promises plenty of twists and turns. Will Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander maintain their dominance? Which breakout guard will seize the moment and become a household fantasy name? Only time will tell, but one thing’s certain: the 2025-26 season is shaping up to be a wild ride for fantasy basketball fans everywhere.
As the games begin and the stats start rolling in, managers who stay agile and capitalize on emerging opportunities will have the inside track to fantasy glory. Let the season—and the breakout performances—begin!
