Brazil’s Supreme Court has entered a pivotal week, as five justices deliberate the fate of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who stands accused of orchestrating a coup to cling to power after his defeat in the 2022 presidential election. The trial, which began its final phase on September 9, 2025, marks an unprecedented moment in Latin American history: never before has a former Brazilian head of state faced coup charges in court.
The stakes could hardly be higher. If convicted, Bolsonaro, a 70-year-old former army officer and far-right leader, faces more than four decades behind bars. Seven co-defendants, including former ministers and army generals, face similar sentences. The outcome, expected by the end of the week, could not only determine Bolsonaro’s personal future but also test the resilience of Brazil’s democracy, four decades after the end of military rule.
According to Reuters, the five-member panel began voting on Tuesday, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes casting the first, and most consequential, vote. Moraes, who presides over the proceedings, left little room for doubt about his stance. “There is no doubt … there was an attempt to abolish the democratic rule of law, that there was an attempted coup, and that there was a criminal organisation that caused damage to public property,” Moraes declared in court. He further cited "excessive evidence," including a document found at government headquarters that detailed plans to assassinate President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the leftist politician who defeated Bolsonaro in 2022.
Justice Flavio Dino is expected to cast the next vote, followed by Justices Luiz Fux, Carmen Lucia, and Cristiano Zanin, who rounds out the panel. A simple majority—three out of five—is all that’s required for a guilty verdict. But even if convicted, Bolsonaro retains the right to appeal, potentially extending the legal saga for months or even years.
Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro led a “criminal organization” bent on overturning the election results. According to the Bangkok Post, the former president is accused of plotting to declare a state of emergency and force new elections, though he ultimately failed to secure the backing of Brazil’s military leadership. The charges go beyond mere political maneuvering. Bolsonaro is formally accused of taking part in an armed criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish democracy, organizing a coup d’état, damaging government property, and damaging protected cultural assets. The combined charges could result in a sentence of up to 43 years in prison.
Bolsonaro has consistently denied all allegations. His legal team, in arguments presented last month, insisted on his innocence across all five counts. Yet, the evidence presented by the prosecution—especially the alleged assassination plans—has cast a long shadow over his defense.
The trial has polarized the nation. For many Brazilians, it is a reckoning with the country’s authoritarian past and a crucial test of democratic institutions. For others, especially Bolsonaro’s fervent base, the proceedings are nothing more than a political show trial. This divide was on full display on September 7, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets in several cities. They denounced the trial as a “disgrace” and offered thanks to U.S. President Donald Trump for his vocal support of Bolsonaro.
Trump, who himself faces legal battles over his attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. election, has repeatedly denounced the Brazilian proceedings as a “witch hunt.” According to AFP, Trump’s administration has gone so far as to impose financial sanctions on Justice Alexandre de Moraes and slap a 50% tariff on many Brazilian imports, moves widely seen as attempts to influence the outcome of the trial. Moraes, undeterred, responded firmly: the court, he vowed, would not bow to “internal or external threats and coercion” and would remain “absolutely inflexible in defending national sovereignty.”
Amid the judicial drama, political maneuvering is in full swing. Fearing that a conviction is imminent, Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress are pushing for an amnesty law that would shield the former president from prison. Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a prominent Bolsonaro ally and a likely contender in the 2026 presidential race, told AFP that there are “more than enough votes” in Congress for the amnesty to pass. Such a move could ignite fierce debate over the rule of law and the limits of political forgiveness in Brazil’s young democracy.
Bolsonaro’s personal circumstances add another layer of complexity. Since August 2025, he has been under house arrest at his residence in Brasilia, where he plans to follow the court’s deliberations closely. His lawyers have cited ongoing health issues stemming from a stabbing attack he suffered at a campaign rally in 2018, arguing that his medical condition should be taken into account during the proceedings.
The trial is not just about one man’s fate. A guilty verdict could effectively end Bolsonaro’s hopes of staging a political comeback, à la Trump, after a criminal conviction. It would also send a powerful message about the strength and independence of Brazil’s judiciary at a time when democratic norms are under strain worldwide.
The proceedings have also underscored the tense relationship between Brazil and the United States. The U.S. government’s sanctions and tariffs have been widely interpreted as efforts to exert pressure on the Brazilian judiciary. While some in Brazil see Trump’s intervention as a defense of conservative values and a bulwark against what they perceive as judicial overreach, others view it as an unacceptable intrusion into the country’s sovereign affairs.
For the Brazilian public, the trial is a moment of soul-searching. Forty years after the end of military dictatorship, the nation finds itself grappling with fundamental questions about democracy, accountability, and the rule of law. Is this trial a necessary reckoning with the past, or a dangerous politicization of justice? The answer may depend as much on the court’s verdict as on the reaction of Brazil’s deeply divided society.
As the justices prepare to render their decision, all eyes are on the Supreme Court in Brasilia. The outcome will reverberate far beyond the courtroom, shaping the future of Brazilian politics and serving as a bellwether for the health of democracy in the region.
Whatever the verdict, Brazil’s democracy is being tested in full view of the world. The coming days will reveal whether its institutions are strong enough to withstand the strain—or whether, as some fear, the wounds of the past are yet to heal.