Brazil stands at a pivotal moment as former President Jair Bolsonaro faces the looming reality of a lengthy prison sentence for his role in the January 8, 2023, attempted coup d’état. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in jail, marking one of the most consequential legal reckonings for a former head of state in the nation’s history. As the court moves into the final stages of deliberation over Bolsonaro’s appeals, the political and legal drama continues to grip the country—and draw attention from around the globe.
According to AP, the STF panel reviewing Bolsonaro’s appeal unanimously rejected his request on November 7, 2025. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the rapporteur for the case, dismissed all defense arguments as “unfeasible,” insisting there were no omissions in the sentencing. He was soon joined by Justices Flávio Dino, Cristiano Zanin, and Cármen Lúcia, solidifying the court’s stance. Although the panel has until November 14 to formally submit their votes—and, in theory, could change their minds—such a reversal is considered highly unlikely.
Bolsonaro’s legal troubles stem from his conviction in September 2025 for masterminding the attempted coup following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election. Prosecutors alleged that the plot included plans to kill President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who ultimately prevailed in the contentious race. The STF found Bolsonaro guilty not only of attempting a coup, but also of participating in an armed criminal organization and attempting the violent abolition of Brazil’s democratic rule of law. He has been under house arrest since August 2025, detained on separate obstruction of justice charges as well.
Bolsonaro and his legal team have vigorously denied any wrongdoing. In their appeal, filed on October 28, 2025, they argued that the charges of organizing a coup and attempting to violently abolish democracy overlapped, making the cumulative penalties unjust. They also referenced Justice Luiz Fux, who was the sole dissenting vote during the original conviction, pointing out that Fux believed Bolsonaro had “deliberately interrupted the course of events” and thus did not follow through with the coup. However, Fux has since left the panel and did not participate in the appeals review.
Justice De Moraes was unequivocal in his response. He asserted there was ample evidence that Bolsonaro was fully aware of the coup plot, which aimed to keep him in power. As De Moraes put it, “It was also demonstrated that the appellant acted freely and knowingly to spread false information about the electronic voting system and to draft a coup decree, which constituted the practice of a coup d’état and a violent attempt to abolish the rule of law.”
With the STF expected to uphold the sentence, attention has turned to where Bolsonaro will serve his time. Following the virtual plenary session’s deadline on November 14, Justice De Moraes is anticipated to decide between the Papuda Penitentiary and the Federal Police Headquarters in Brasília. According to BBC, De Moraes’ chief of staff has already inspected three sectors of the Papuda complex, including its maximum security block and a Military Police Battalion known as Papudinha—where former Justice Minister Anderson Torres was held in 2023. The decision is fraught with logistical and political challenges, with Bolsonaro’s allies expressing deep apprehension about the former president’s fate.
Federal District Deputy Governor Celina Leão, a close political ally, has argued that Papuda Prison Complex is ill-equipped to meet Bolsonaro’s medical needs and special dietary requirements, given his history of surgeries. “The Papuda Prison Complex is not equipped to receive the former President because it lacks the infrastructure and resources to meet his medical needs and special diet following his past surgeries,” she stated. Despite these concerns, De Moraes has previously dismissed requests for a medical evaluation related to the Papuda facilities.
Behind the scenes, Bolsonaro’s legal team is reportedly preparing a medical defense strategy reminiscent of that used by former President Fernando Collor de Mello, who was granted house arrest on medical grounds just a week after his own imprisonment earlier in 2025. Sources close to Bolsonaro believe that, if he is indeed sent to prison, he might only be held in an isolated facility like Papudinha for a few weeks before being returned to house arrest—a pattern seen in other high-profile cases.
The political landscape surrounding Bolsonaro has shifted dramatically since his conviction. According to reports from O Globo, the right wing’s mobilization capabilities have significantly weakened, and efforts to push for legislative amnesty in Congress have lost momentum. Lawmakers who previously rallied in Bolsonaro’s defense are now encountering resistance and a notable lack of popular engagement. The former president’s support base, once a formidable force in Brazilian politics, appears to be fracturing under the weight of these legal and political setbacks.
The international ramifications of the trial have been substantial. As reported by AP, U.S. President Donald Trump responded to the conviction by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian imported goods, citing Bolsonaro’s case as a “witch hunt.” This move led to a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Brazil relations, described by experts as the lowest point in their more than 200-year shared history. However, there have been recent signs of improvement: Lula and Trump spoke by phone and met in person at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia in October 2025, signaling a tentative thaw in diplomatic tensions.
Bolsonaro’s journey through Brazil’s legal system has captivated both national and international audiences. The trial has been closely watched, not just for its legal implications, but for the broader questions it raises about the resilience of Brazil’s democracy and the accountability of its leaders. For many, the case serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions in the face of political upheaval and misinformation campaigns.
As the STF prepares to finalize its decision, the atmosphere remains tense. Bolsonaro will only begin serving his sentence once all avenues for appeal have been exhausted. Until then, the country—and the world—waits to see where the former president will be sent, and whether his legal team’s last-ditch medical defense will succeed in keeping him out of prison. Whatever the outcome, the reverberations of this case are likely to be felt in Brazil’s political landscape for years to come.
For now, the fate of Jair Bolsonaro hangs in the balance, a symbol of both the power and the limits of Brazil’s judicial system in the face of extraordinary political crisis.
