Brazil is standing at a historic crossroads as its Supreme Court edges closer to a verdict that could reshape the nation’s political landscape for years to come. On Tuesday, September 9, 2025, the five-judge panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court began the final phase of deliberations on whether former President Jair Bolsonaro orchestrated a criminal conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election. The proceedings have captured global attention, not least because of their implications for democracy in Latin America’s largest country and the international ripple effects already being felt.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has presided over the case and is widely regarded as a central figure in Brazil’s efforts to safeguard its democratic institutions, set the tone early in the session. In a marathon five-hour statement, he laid out in painstaking detail the evidence that, in his view, pointed to Bolsonaro as the “leader of a criminal organization” intent on subverting democracy. According to The Independent, de Moraes did not mince words: “We can't forget that little by little Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship that lasted 20 years,” he said, referencing the country’s military rule from 1964 to 1985. “That was because of a criminal organization built by a political group that doesn't know how to lose elections.”
De Moraes’ vote to convict was quickly echoed by Justice Flávio Dino, who also found Bolsonaro guilty on all counts. Dino, a former justice minister under current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, solidified the momentum toward a conviction. With two votes now in favor, only one more is needed from the remaining three justices—Luiz Fux, Cármen Lúcia, and Cristiano Zanin—to secure a majority that would send the former president to prison for as many as 43 years. Court sessions are scheduled to continue daily through Friday, September 12, raising the prospect of a verdict by week’s end.
Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, faces five serious charges: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and two counts involving the destruction of state property and protected cultural assets. The most severe charge—plotting a coup—alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years. According to Reuters, the charges stem from a federal police investigation that uncovered not only the alleged coup plot, but also chilling plans to poison President Lula and his running mate.
The prosecution’s case rests on a series of “executory acts” that de Moraes argued constituted a coordinated assault on Brazil’s democracy. These include Bolsonaro’s repeated efforts to undermine public confidence in the country’s electoral system, the drafting of a decree to suspend the 2022 election results, and the infamous riots of January 8, 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed and ransacked the Congress, presidential palace, and Supreme Court in Brasília. De Moraes dismissed Bolsonaro’s claim that he was merely exploring legal avenues to remain in power, stating unequivocally, “Call it whatever you want: this was a draft decree for a coup d’état.”
Bolsonaro himself was absent from the courtroom on September 9, remaining under house arrest and wearing an ankle monitor. His legal team, led by Celso Vilardi, has maintained his innocence, arguing that “the planning is not the execution. No matter how detailed the planning may be, it is the act of violence that actually consummates the crime.” Vilardi insisted that Bolsonaro “did not act against the democratic rule of law” and had, in fact, ordered a transition of power after the election. Nevertheless, de Moraes countered that “the mere attempt—especially because the completion will not allow anyone to be held responsible—consummates the crime” of a coup.
The stakes extend far beyond Bolsonaro himself. Seven close allies, including former defense ministers Walter Braga Netto and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, are also on trial. For the first time in Brazil’s history, a former president and high-ranking military officers are being tried for allegedly plotting against democratic rule. “Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship that lasted 20 years (...) because a criminal organization made up of a political group, led by Jair Bolsonaro, doesn’t understand that the democratic and republican principle is the alternation of power,” de Moraes emphasized, as reported by The Independent.
The political reverberations have been swift and intense. On Sunday, September 7, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters flooded the streets of São Paulo in protest, with his wife Michelle Bolsonaro delivering a passionate speech affirming his love for the country. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s political allies have begun maneuvering for his potential absence. São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former member of Bolsonaro’s cabinet, has urged Congress to grant the ex-president amnesty—a move widely interpreted as positioning himself to inherit Bolsonaro’s political mantle in the next election.
The trial has also drawn the attention—and ire—of international actors, most notably the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of Bolsonaro, has denounced the proceedings as a “witch hunt,” echoing his own language from domestic legal battles. Trump’s administration has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, explicitly linking the measure to Bolsonaro’s judicial predicament. The U.S. embassy in Brazil, for its part, reposted a message on September 8 indicating that the Trump administration would “continue to take appropriate action” against individuals like Justice de Moraes, whom they accuse of abusing their authority.
Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has responded with characteristic defiance. Delivering a national address on September 7, ahead of Brazil’s Independence Day celebrations, Lula declared that Brazil “will not be anyone’s colony,” a thinly veiled rebuke of foreign interference. According to The Independent, the trial’s outcome could further strain the already fragile diplomatic relationship between Brazil and the United States, with experts warning that additional sanctions or visa restrictions on government officials could follow.
Despite the high drama, legal experts caution that the proceedings are not yet over. If one of the remaining justices requests a longer review, the verdict could be delayed by up to 90 days, though court observers believe this is unlikely. Should the panel convict Bolsonaro, each justice will recommend a sentence, with the final prison term and any fines determined by averaging the recommendations.
As the nation waits with bated breath, the sense of unpredictability is palpable. “It’s quite unpredictable,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, when asked about the possible U.S. response. The outcome of the trial will not only determine Bolsonaro’s fate but will also test the resilience of Brazil’s democracy at a moment when the world is watching—and waiting.