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Brazil Supreme Court Nears Historic Bolsonaro Coup Verdict

The final phase of Jair Bolsonaro’s trial for alleged coup plotting begins, dividing Brazil and drawing global attention as Supreme Court justices weigh a verdict that could reshape the nation’s political future.

6 min read

Brazil’s Supreme Court commenced the final phase of a historic trial on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, as former President Jair Bolsonaro faced judgment on charges of orchestrating a coup to remain in power after his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election. The trial, which has riveted the nation and drawn global scrutiny, marks the first time a former Brazilian president has stood accused of such grave crimes against the country’s democracy.

Bolsonaro, who served as Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022, is charged with five serious offenses: taking part in an armed criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish democracy, coup d’état, damage to government property, and damage to protected cultural assets. These allegations stem from a tumultuous period in Brazilian politics, culminating in the January 8, 2023 riots, when thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed and vandalized the Congress, presidential palace, and Supreme Court in Brasília. According to Reuters, prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro not only incited these events but also led a broader conspiracy to prevent his rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from assuming office.

The Supreme Court’s five-justice panel—comprised of justices including Cristiano Zanin, a former attorney for Lula, and Alexandre de Moraes, a frequent Bolsonaro adversary—will deliver verdicts and sentences between September 2 and September 12. A simple majority of three votes is sufficient for conviction, and each judge may recommend sentences for those found guilty. If convicted on all five counts, Bolsonaro faces a potential sentence exceeding 40 years, though Brazilian law caps any single prison term at 40 years. As BBC notes, criminal convicts in Brazil often serve reduced sentences, but the stakes for Bolsonaro’s political future are immense.

Bolsonaro’s legal troubles are not limited to the current trial. In 2023, Brazil’s federal electoral court disqualified him from running for public office until 2030, citing abuse of political power and his use of social media and state television to undermine trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system. Despite these setbacks, Bolsonaro has repeatedly denied all charges, insisting that he is the victim of political persecution. “The charges are politically motivated,” he has claimed, echoing the sentiments of his supporters.

The allegations against Bolsonaro are extensive and severe. Police and prosecutors say he began sowing doubt about Brazil’s electoral process as early as 2019, well before the 2022 election. Investigators allege that after losing to Lula, Bolsonaro convened meetings with top military commanders, presenting them with a proposed coup plan and urging them to join his effort to overturn the election results. According to BBC, while the army and air force commanders refused, Navy Commander Almir Garnier Santos—one of Bolsonaro’s co-defendants—expressed support for the plan, though he has denied the allegations.

Perhaps most alarming are the claims that Bolsonaro and his associates discussed plans to assassinate Lula, his running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Prosecutors allege that these plans were ultimately abandoned, but their existence underscores the gravity of the charges. As reported by Agence France-Presse, investigators cited intercepted communications and meetings at the presidential residence as evidence supporting these allegations.

The trial itself has become a flashpoint in Brazil’s ongoing struggle between democratic institutions and populist movements. Supporters of the former president view the proceedings as a political show trial designed to eliminate Bolsonaro as a future political contender. Detractors, however, see the trial as a crucial test of Brazil’s democratic resilience, especially forty years after the end of military dictatorship. Security has been heightened around the Supreme Court in Brasília, reflecting fears of potential unrest as the verdict approaches.

The international response has been equally dramatic. U.S. President Donald Trump, a close ally of Bolsonaro, has denounced the trial as a “witch hunt” and retaliated by imposing a 50% tariff on a range of Brazilian exports. The U.S. Treasury also sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is presiding over the case, further straining relations between the two countries. According to AFP, Bolsonaro’s supporters have welcomed Trump’s intervention, with one rally participant stating, “Thanks to these measures, they see that they are not alone, that there is someone above them who can make a difference.”

Bolsonaro’s current circumstances are a far cry from his days as president. He remains under house arrest in a gated community in Brasília, monitored by an ankle tag and restricted from contacting foreign officials, using social media, or approaching embassies. Authorities have expressed concerns that he might attempt to flee the country or seek political asylum—rumors fueled by the discovery of a document suggesting he considered seeking refuge in Argentina, a claim his lawyers deny. As Reuters reports, Bolsonaro is not expected to attend the court sessions in person, a decision confirmed by his lawyer Celso Vilardi.

Legal proceedings began at 09:00 local time on September 2, with Justice Cristiano Zanin opening the session. Justice Alexandre de Moraes then summarized the evidence, after which the prosecutor general, Paulo Gonet, formally read the charges against Bolsonaro and his seven co-defendants, a group that includes several former ministers and generals. Notably, one of the accused, Bolsonaro’s former aide Mauro Cid, has entered a plea deal in exchange for providing evidence, making his lawyer the first to speak during closing arguments.

The defense maintains that Bolsonaro is innocent on all counts, asserting that he neither orchestrated nor supported any attempt to overthrow the democratic order. Still, the prosecution’s case is buttressed by extensive police investigations, intercepted communications, and testimony from insiders. After closing arguments, the justices will cast their votes individually, with the outcome expected by September 12.

Should Bolsonaro be convicted, he has the right to appeal the verdict to the full chamber of the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, some of his allies in Congress are already advocating for an amnesty law that could potentially shield him from prison, a move that would likely deepen the country’s political divisions.

As Brazil awaits the verdict, the trial has become more than just a legal reckoning for a former president—it stands as a defining moment for Brazilian democracy itself, with consequences that will echo throughout the nation’s political landscape for years to come.

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