Brazil’s political landscape has been thrown into fresh turmoil after the Senate passed a controversial bill that could sharply reduce the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro, convicted last month of plotting a coup. The legislation, which sped through both chambers of Congress, now awaits the signature—or veto—of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation between Brazil’s institutions and political factions.
The Senate approved the bill on December 18, 2025, by a vote of 48 to 25, following its passage in the lower house the previous week. According to AP News, the bill would not only shorten Bolsonaro’s time behind bars to just over two years, but also offer significant sentence reductions to hundreds of others convicted for their roles in the January 2023 riots in Brasília, where government buildings were stormed by Bolsonaro supporters. The move has ignited passionate debate across the country, with supporters heralding it as a step toward national reconciliation and critics warning it could undermine Brazil’s hard-won democratic institutions.
Bolsonaro, 70, began serving his sentence in November after being found guilty of orchestrating a plot to overturn his razor-thin 2022 election loss to Lula. The former president’s conviction was not just for the attempted coup, but also for allegedly plotting to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—a plan prosecutors say failed due to lack of support from top military brass. Under existing rules, Bolsonaro would have to serve at least seven to eight years before becoming eligible for a less restrictive prison regime. But as The Guardian and France 24 report, the new bill could see him transferred to a more lenient system in just over two years.
The legislation’s rapid progress through the conservative-controlled lower chamber and the more balanced Senate has left many observers stunned. For months, Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress had lobbied for some form of amnesty, but few expected such a sweeping measure to pass so quickly. "There shouldn’t even be a debate about amnesty, but about annulling the farce that the entire process was," declared Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son and a likely candidate in the 2026 presidential race, according to AP News. After the Senate vote, Flávio called the bill’s passage a “first step,” even as he acknowledged it was not the ideal outcome for his family or their supporters.
Supporters of the bill, such as Senator Esperidião Amin and the bill’s author, Paulinho da Força, have framed it as a gesture of unity for a country still reeling from the deep polarization of the last election cycle. "It is part of our path to peace," Amin said after the vote, echoing the sentiment that the legislation could help heal Brazil’s political wounds. Sergio Moro, a senator and former justice minister under Bolsonaro, also welcomed the bill, saying, "to get those people out of prison, which is the most important thing right now." The bill specifically limits cumulative punishments for multiple offenses arising from the same episode and allows sentence reductions of up to two-thirds for crimes committed in a crowd. Those who did not finance or lead the actions could receive reductions ranging from one-third to two-thirds, potentially benefiting more than 100 Bolsonaro supporters still imprisoned for their roles in the Brasília riots.
Yet the backlash has been fierce and immediate. On December 14, tens of thousands of Brazilians poured into the streets of Brasília, São Paulo, Florianópolis, Salvador, Recife, and other major cities, chanting “no amnesty” and waving banners denouncing Congress as the "enemy of the people." Centrist Senator Renan Calheiros slammed the vote as a “farce,” walking out of the Senate session and accusing government allies of striking backroom deals to allow the measure to pass in exchange for support on unrelated budget initiatives. Critics argue that the bill undermines accountability for attacks on democracy and could embolden future attempts to subvert the rule of law. As France 24 notes, around 2,000 people were arrested after the January 2023 riots, with many convicted of serious crimes by the Supreme Court.
President Lula and his government have made their opposition crystal clear. Institutional Relations Minister Gleisi Hoffmann stated flatly, "Those convicted of attacking democracy must pay for their crimes," adding that the bill represented a "sign of disrespect for the Supreme Court’s decision and a serious setback to legislation that protects democracy." Lula has vowed to veto the bill, and his Workers’ Party is already signaling a willingness to challenge the law in the Supreme Court if it somehow survives his rejection. Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, a Lula ally, was unequivocal: “This bill is destined to be vetoed.”
The legal and political wrangling is far from over. Even if Lula vetoes the bill, Congress has the power to override his decision with a three-fifths majority in both chambers—a scenario that remains plausible given the measure’s strong support among conservatives and some centrists. The Supreme Court could also be asked to rule on the constitutionality of the bill, especially as it pertains to the reduction of sentences for crimes against democracy.
Bolsonaro’s personal circumstances have only added to the drama. He is currently serving his sentence in a special room at a police facility in Brasília, after an incident early in his jail term when he reportedly used a soldering iron to tamper with his ankle monitoring bracelet while under house arrest. The symbolism of his imprisonment—coming just three years after the January 2023 insurrection that many compare to the January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol—has not been lost on Brazilians or international observers.
The stakes are high not just for Bolsonaro and his supporters, but for Brazil’s broader democratic project. The country remains deeply divided, with Lula’s leftist Workers’ Party and Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party both preparing for a bruising rematch in the 2026 presidential election. Flávio Bolsonaro’s likely candidacy ensures that the former president’s legacy will remain at the center of national debate, regardless of how much time he ultimately spends behind bars.
As Brazil waits to see whether Lula will sign or veto the bill—and whether Congress or the courts will have the final say—the nation stands at a crossroads. The outcome could shape not only Bolsonaro’s fate, but also the future of accountability, reconciliation, and democracy in Latin America’s largest country.
