On August 26, 2025, Brazil’s political landscape was jolted once again as Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered 24-hour police surveillance of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest at his residence in Brasília. The decision, approved by the Office of the Prosecutor General and carried out by the Federal Police, follows mounting concerns that Bolsonaro, facing a high-profile coup-plotting trial, might attempt to flee the country before his verdict is handed down early next month.
The surveillance order, as explained by the STF, was prompted by a formal request from leftist lawmaker Lindbergh Farias, leader of the ruling Workers’ Party (PT) in Congress. Farias raised alarms about a “real risk” that Bolsonaro could seek political asylum at the U.S. embassy in Brasília—just a ten-minute drive from his home. According to reporting from Metrópoles and AFP, police officers are now stationed in continuous shifts at both the main entrance and surrounding areas of Bolsonaro’s residence. They have access to the private security guardhouse, maintain direct contact with monitoring centers, and keep a close watch on the electronic system tracking Bolsonaro’s ankle bracelet.
Justice de Moraes, in his official ruling, underscored the “proximity of Bolsonaro’s trial” and called the monitoring measures “absolutely necessary and appropriate,” emphasizing that they should not aggravate the former president’s situation. The trial, scheduled between September 2 and September 12, 2025, could see Bolsonaro facing up to 40 years in prison if convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 presidential election results, which he narrowly lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The roots of this extraordinary surveillance stem from a draft document investigators claim to have found on Bolsonaro’s phone. The document allegedly outlined plans to request political asylum in Argentina from President Javier Milei in 2024. This revelation, cited by Farias in his plea to the police, led to a police raid on Bolsonaro’s home earlier this year, during which his passport was seized, effectively preventing any attempt to leave Brazil.
Bolsonaro’s legal troubles don’t end there. Alongside his son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, he faces fresh indictments. The charges include “coercion” in the ongoing “coup” trial and “abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law.” Eduardo Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is currently in the United States, having requested political asylum on the grounds of persecution. Justice de Moraes’ ruling, as cited by the STF, points to Eduardo’s actions abroad as further evidence of a potential flight risk for his father: “The incessant actions of Eduardo Nantes Bolsonaro, even while located in a foreign country, demonstrate the possibility of a risk of flight on the part of Jair Messias Bolsonaro, in order to evade the application of criminal law.”
Under the strict terms of his house arrest, Bolsonaro is prohibited from using phones or any social media platform, with violations carrying the threat of imprisonment. The Federal Police’s director-general, Andrei Rodrigues, has also requested that a police team be allowed inside Bolsonaro’s residence to ensure compliance with these conditions. According to Poder 360, the Federal Police have reached out to the National Secretariat for Penal Policy (Senappen) to coordinate efforts, describing the presence of agents inside the home as “essential” to prevent any escape attempt.
The political fallout from Bolsonaro’s legal woes has reverberated far beyond Brazil’s borders. The trial has deepened divisions between President Lula and former U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has denounced the indictment as a “witch hunt” and, in July 2025, imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods entering the United States. He cited the “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro and what he described as “numerous acts of persecution and censorship committed by de Moraes” as justification for the tariffs. The Trump administration also slapped U.S. human rights sanctions on Justice de Moraes under the Global Magnitsky Act, accusing him of a pattern of persecuting conservative political activity, including arbitrary detentions, denial of fair trial guarantees, censorship, and punishing free speech.
Brazil’s government, for its part, has pushed back against what it views as foreign interference. On August 26, President Lula announced that the United States had revoked the visa of his justice minister, Ricardo Lewandowski—one of several officials to be hit with a U.S. visa ban or asset freeze over the case. At a cabinet meeting, Lula called the move an “irresponsible gesture” and expressed solidarity with Lewandowski. In a symbolic protest, Lula and several ministers donned caps inscribed with “Brazil belongs to Brazilians.” Lula criticized the actions as “unacceptable, not only against the minister but against all Supreme Court justices, against any Brazilian figure.”
The U.S. sanctions, according to AFP, followed intense lobbying by Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, who has campaigned for punitive measures against Brazilian officials involved in his father’s case. Lula called Eduardo’s campaign “one of the worst betrayals the country has suffered.” Meanwhile, STF Justice Flávio Dino issued a ruling forbidding Brazilian entities from complying with foreign judicial or executive orders—a move that effectively shields de Moraes from enforcement of U.S. sanctions by Brazilian banks and institutions.
Bolsonaro, who earned the nickname “Trump of the Tropics” during his presidency, maintains that the trial is a politically motivated attempt by the judiciary and Lula’s government to block any comeback in the 2026 elections. Despite being barred from seeking re-election until 2030 for spreading misinformation about Brazil’s electoral system, Bolsonaro and his supporters have continued to claim that he is the victim of persecution.
While Bolsonaro is barred from public comment, his wife, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, took to Instagram on August 26 to express faith and resilience in the face of adversity. In her post, she wrote, “We will win,” adding, “You know … with each passing day, the challenge has been enormous: resisting persecution, dealing with uncertainty, and enduring humiliation. But it’s nothing. We will overcome. God is good all the time, and we have a promise. Father, I love You, regardless of the bad days. I praise You with all my heart. You have not lost control of anything at all. Today I declare: Brazil belongs to the Lord Jesus.”
As the trial date approaches and police stand guard around Bolsonaro’s home, the nation waits anxiously. The outcome will not only determine the fate of a former president but could also reshape Brazil’s political future and its relations with powerful allies and critics abroad. The next few weeks promise to be as tense as they are consequential.