Brazil Faces Climate Crossroads After COP30 Oil Move

In the weeks leading up to the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, a flurry of activity both inside and outside government circles set the stage for one of the most contentious and dynamic climate conferences in recent memory. The Brazilian government’s decision to approve new oil exploration off its northern coast, just days before the conference began on December 1, 2025, sent a clear message: while Brazil wants to be seen as a climate leader, it is not ready to turn away from the economic promise of fossil fuels.

The license, granted by Brazil’s federal environmental agency Ibama to the state-owned oil giant Petrobras, allows for the drilling of an offshore well in Block 59, near the mouth of the Amazon River—one of the country’s most biodiverse regions. As reported by Dialogue Earth, this decision followed a protracted five-year environmental review, reflecting the deep concerns about the potential impact on local ecosystems. The approval, however, was not the end of the story. If Petrobras finds commercially viable reserves, it will need to secure additional permissions before production can begin, and any further drilling will also require new authorizations.

The timing of the license was not lost on environmentalists and Indigenous activists. As thousands of delegates, negotiators, and observers descended on Belém for COP30, the air was thick with both anticipation and protest. The conference, dubbed the “Indigenous COP” because of its Amazonian setting and efforts to boost Indigenous participation, quickly became a stage for both high-level diplomacy and grassroots activism.

On the second day of COP30, Indigenous activists—dressed in traditional regalia—stormed past security into zones typically reserved for diplomats and preapproved delegates. According to Grist, this bold move was emblematic of a broader shift: Indigenous voices were no longer content to remain on the sidelines. “This time you were seeing the amplification of Indigenous voices purely from an incredible organizing effort,” said Kaeden Watts, a climate and Indigenous rights policy expert from Aotearoa New Zealand. “That’s an outcome we very rarely see and it’s resulted in tangible change.”

Indeed, the presence of more than 5,000 Indigenous participants—about 900 of whom had accredited access to negotiation areas—marked a historic first for the 30-year-old conference. Their demands were clear: a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels and strong commitments to end deforestation, all while protecting Indigenous rights and territories. Yet, the realities of international climate diplomacy proved stubborn. Despite their efforts, the final Global Mutirão, a nonbinding agreement among U.N. members, failed to include most of the proposals put forward by Indigenous groups. “None of our proposals were taken into account for the Global Mutirão text,” said Emil Gualinga, a member of the Kichwa People of Sarayaku and participant in the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change. Still, he found solace in one accomplishment: the Just Transition Work Programme, a U.N. initiative, formally recognized the importance of protecting Indigenous rights—including the right to free, prior, and informed consent regarding activities on their lands.

The contrast between Brazil’s climate rhetoric and its actions was not lost on critics. In 2024, the country exported 52% of all oil extracted, with China as the largest buyer. Over the past decade, Brazilian crude oil exports soared by 132%, reaching nearly 90 million tonnes. According to Mahatma Ramos of the Institute for Strategic Studies on Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels, “This expansion is much more focused on the foreign market than on achieving self-sufficiency in production.” The country’s oil production now exceeds 4 million barrels a day—enough to meet domestic demand, though limited refinery capacity means some products still need to be imported.

The approval of new exploration in the Foz do Amazonas basin also signals Brazil’s ambition to move up the ranks of global oil producers. Currently sixth in the world, analysts say that further development in the equatorial margin could push Brazil to fourth place within the next decade. Foreign investment is also flowing in, with companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and China’s CNPC participating in recent auctions for exploration rights near the Amazon River mouth. Yet, as Ramos pointed out, “Much of the technology, employment and income generated from this exploration will not remain in Brazilian territory.”

Environmental groups were quick to challenge the government’s decision. Eight Brazilian civil society organizations, including the Climate Observatory, filed a lawsuit alleging failures in community consultation and outdated data in environmental assessments. Suely Araújo, public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory, criticized the reliance on old oil spill models: “If Ibama itself considers that there is a need for a new model, it should not have granted this licence.” Ibama, for its part, imposed 28 conditions on Petrobras, demanding further oil spill simulations and regular public reporting.

Meanwhile, the streets of Belém became a second front in the climate debate. On December 4, 2025, an estimated 70,000 people joined a Climate March, demanding an end to oil exploration in the Amazon. Indigenous activists, whose lands are often at the center of such projects, made their voices heard both inside and outside the conference halls. Their message was clear: decisions about the future of the Amazon—and the planet—cannot be made without their input.

Yet, the political and economic stakes are high. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has allocated 100 billion reais (USD 18.8 billion) more toward oil and gas than his predecessor, and in 2025 Brazil joined OPEC+, signaling a continued commitment to fossil fuel production. Lula himself has argued that “no country is ready” to give up oil, a stance echoed by many in the government who see oil as key to development and job creation. Clarissa Lins, a sustainability consultant, summarized the dilemma: “It is very difficult to ask a country considered by the World Bank to be middle-income to give up this economic resource. The oil produced here is highly competitive, and the industry has a relevance that cannot be ignored.”

At COP30, Petrobras kept a low profile, sending only second-tier employees despite the record number of fossil fuel lobbyists in attendance. The company’s CEO, Magda Chambriard, maintained that the new exploration would help unlock a “new global energy frontier.” Still, as Andrés Gómez of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative noted, there is a risk that massive investments in hard-to-reach oil reserves could become stranded assets as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

For many Indigenous leaders and climate advocates, the fight is far from over. Gualinga expects advocacy to continue at upcoming international meetings, while Watts believes the visibility of Indigenous resistance at COP30 marks a turning point. “Ever since Indigenous peoples have had to fight for their rights… their advocacy and their determination for self-determination has never stopped. And we’ll never see it stop.”

As Brazil strives to balance its economic ambitions with the urgent demands of climate justice, the world will be watching to see whether the country can truly lead the way toward a sustainable future—or whether the lure of oil will prove too strong to resist.