On December 26, 2025, the United Kingdom’s high streets—once the vibrant heartbeat of Boxing Day shopping—are facing a moment of reckoning. The nation’s retailers, already battered by months of economic uncertainty, are bracing for a dramatic drop in Boxing Day sales, with some forecasts predicting a staggering £1 billion slump compared to last year. Yet, in a twist that captures the complexity of the times, other projections suggest overall spending could rise slightly, even as shoppers tighten their belts and shift their habits.
According to figures from Barclays, only 26% of Britons plan to hunt for bargains this Boxing Day, down from 28% in 2024. The bank estimates that high streets will net £3.6 billion from Boxing Day shoppers—a full £1 billion less than the previous year. The culprit? Soaring cost pressures, which 69% of respondents say will impact their spending this year, up sharply from 47% in 2024. These numbers paint a sobering picture for traditional retailers, many of whom depend on Boxing Day to recoup losses and clear stock before the new year.
But the story doesn’t end there. Research by GlobalData for Vouchercodes.co.uk, highlighted in The Guardian, offers a more optimistic headline: UK shoppers are expected to spend £3.8 billion on Boxing Day, a 2% increase from 2024. This apparent contradiction is explained by a dramatic shift in consumer behavior. While high street sales are only expected to grow by 1.5%, online sales are surging ahead, with a projected 3.4% increase over last year. In fact, Christmas Day itself has become a shopping bonanza, with more than £1 billion in sales and 23 million people expected to shop online shortly after unwrapping their gifts—half a million more than the previous year.
This digital pivot is not just about convenience. For many, it’s a necessity. Since Rachel Reeves became Chancellor last year, households and businesses have been hit with £66 billion in extra taxes, including a £25 billion raid on employers’ National Insurance contributions. The government’s reforms—ranging from a hike in the minimum wage to new business rates and extended stealth taxes on pay rises—are set to force over 8.9 million people into paying the higher rate of income tax by 2030. “With the Government presiding over a flatlining economy and collapsing consumer confidence, shoppers are tightening their belts and retailers are paying the price,” said Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith, as quoted by the Daily Mail.
Retailers aren’t the only ones feeling the pinch. Unemployment has climbed to a five-year high of 5.1%, and the Bank of England forecasts GDP growth will flatline in the last quarter of 2025. Sales in the lead-up to Christmas were already sluggish, with MRI Software reporting a 5.6% year-on-year drop in high street visits the week before Christmas. Even Black Friday, usually a reliable windfall, disappointed: the Office for National Statistics revealed sales fell by 0.1% in November compared to the previous year.
Despite these headwinds, Boxing Day remains a beloved tradition. “Boxing Day is still a pivotal moment for retailers, fueled by Christmas nostalgia, but it has evolved to reflect modern consumer demands,” explained Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays. “This year, we’re likely to see a balanced blend of online convenience, experiential retail and increasingly mindful purchasing.”
The numbers bear this out. Of those planning to shop on Boxing Day, half will brave the crowds in-store, while the other half will hunt for deals online. The average shopper’s budget stands at £253—up £17 from last year—suggesting that those who do spend are prepared to splash out, perhaps having held out for the best deals. Clothing, shoes, and accessories top the wish lists for 37% of shoppers, followed by food and drink, beauty, and homeware. Notably, a quarter of shoppers say they’ll buy only essentials, reflecting the new cost-conscious mindset.
Technology is playing an ever-larger role in this evolving landscape. According to Barclays, 37% of online shoppers now use artificial intelligence tools to hunt for deals, research products, and compare prices. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, that figure soars to 53%. Yet, half of these tech-savvy shoppers worry that AI tools might tempt them to overspend—a modern twist on the age-old struggle between thrift and temptation.
Retailers, for their part, are adapting as best they can. Many are offering deeper discounts or in-store-only perks to lure shoppers off their sofas and back onto the high street. Still, the challenges are formidable. Several major chains—including John Lewis, Aldi, Poundland, B&Q, Next, and large Marks & Spencer stores—remain closed on Boxing Day, further dampening footfall. Visitor numbers were down 4.5% on December 23 compared to the same day in 2024, though there was a slight recovery on Christmas Eve, up 0.4% year-on-year, according to MRI.
Moji Oshisanya, chief commercial officer of VoucherCodes.co.uk, offered a nuanced take on the numbers: “The uplift in sales over the Boxing Day sales period is driven by two key factors. We’re seeing a resurgence in appetite for the Boxing Day sales, with shopper numbers forecast to be at their highest level in four years—a healthy 105.2 million [over a week]. The Boxing Day sales are often a moment for consumers to treat themselves post-Christmas, and with finances tight, the deals and discounts available will be used to stretch budgets further.”
Yet, even as the value of sales is expected to grow by 3.2% over the six-week Christmas period, the volume of items sold is forecast to fall by 0.3%. In other words, people are spending more, but taking home fewer items—a telling sign of inflation’s bite. “For households, the cost of living still remains the biggest challenge. Although we’ve seen falling inflation over the last four years, we haven’t seen falling prices,” observed Richard Lim of Retail Economics.
The government insists it is working to revive the high street. “Breathing life back into our high streets is a vital part of bringing economic growth to every part of the UK, and we are committed to working in partnership with businesses and local communities to deliver this and back retail,” said a government spokesperson. Efforts include leveling the playing field between online and brick-and-mortar businesses, tackling late payments, stamping out retail crime, and creating a fairer business rate system to support entrepreneurship.
Looking ahead, January 2026 is forecast to be the weakest month for retail sales in four years, reminiscent of the pandemic lows of March 2021. Meanwhile, December 27—a Saturday this year—may even rival Boxing Day as the busiest post-Christmas shopping day, as many take advantage of the extended break and lingering discounts.
In sum, Boxing Day 2025 captures a nation at a crossroads. The British love affair with post-Christmas bargains endures, but the way people shop—and the reasons they do—are changing fast. Whether this signals the end of the high street or the dawn of a new retail era remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the retail sector, much like its customers, will need to keep adapting to survive.
