Brazil’s political stage is set for a dramatic weekend, as former president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters are called to the streets for a series of demonstrations just days before the Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether he is guilty of attempting a coup. The outcome could determine not only Bolsonaro’s future but also the direction of Brazil’s democracy, as tensions simmer between rival camps and the specter of political unrest looms large.
Bolsonaro, the far-right former army captain, has been under house arrest since August 2025. The Supreme Court verdict, due next week, could see him facing up to 43 years in prison if convicted of trying to cling to power after losing the highly contentious 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. According to AFP, the verdict comes amid a charged atmosphere, with Bolsonaro’s allies mobilizing supporters for nationwide rallies on Sunday, September 7, 2025—Brazil’s Independence Day.
These demonstrations, which will unfold in the country’s main cities, are being framed by Bolsonaro’s camp as a test of his enduring political strength. The rallies kick off in Rio de Janeiro and culminate with a major demonstration in São Paulo on Avenida Paulista, a symbolic thoroughfare for political activism. The events are sponsored by ultra-conservative evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia and will feature appearances by several right-wing presidential hopefuls, including São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, who many view as Bolsonaro’s potential successor and a leading proponent of amnesty for those convicted in connection to the unrest.
The timing of these rallies is no accident. They come as the Supreme Court prepares to deliver a verdict in a case that has gripped the nation and drawn international attention. The charges against Bolsonaro stem from allegations that he attempted to subvert Brazil’s democratic process, inciting supporters to reject the results of the 2022 election and calling for the military to intervene after his defeat. Notably, Bolsonaro was in the United States at the time of the January 8, 2023 storming of the Supreme Court, presidential palace, and Congress, but he is accused of inciting the rioters from afar.
Hundreds of Bolsonaro’s supporters, often called “Bolsonaristas,” have already been convicted for their roles in the January 8 attacks, which saw government buildings ransacked in scenes that shocked Brazil and the world. The Independence Day events this year are as much about Bolsonaro as they are about these convicted supporters. Rallies are being held under the slogan “Brazil Reacts,” with a central demand: amnesty for those prosecuted over the unrest. According to RFI, the Bolsonaristas hope that Congress will vote for a broad amnesty—one that could eventually extend to Bolsonaro himself, should he be convicted.
The possibility of amnesty has become a flashpoint in Brazil’s already polarized political environment. President Lula, who will lead the official Independence Day parade in Brasília under the motto “Sovereign Brazil,” has made his opposition to such an amnesty clear. Lula, now 79 and planning to seek reelection in 2026, warned this week, “It’s a battle that must also be fought by the people.” He has repeatedly cautioned that granting amnesty could undermine accountability and embolden future attacks on democratic institutions.
Security concerns have prompted authorities to bolster their presence for the official parade, with the Brasília Military Police confirming the deployment of 2,000 officers and additional troops on standby. The heightened alert reflects the deep anxieties lingering in the wake of the January 8 events, as well as the ongoing potential for unrest amid such high-stakes political drama.
While the left rallies behind Lula and the defense of democratic norms, the right is coalescing around Bolsonaro, despite his legal woes and political setbacks. Bolsonaro has been barred from running for office until 2030 for casting doubt on Brazil’s voting system without evidence—a decision that has only fueled claims among his supporters of political persecution. He maintains his innocence, insisting that the charges against him are unfounded and motivated by his opponents’ desire to silence him.
The international dimension of the case cannot be ignored. Former US President Donald Trump, a longstanding ally of Bolsonaro, has publicly denounced the proceedings, characterizing them as a “witch hunt.” Trump’s intervention has only added fuel to the fire, reinforcing the narrative among Bolsonaro’s base that their leader is the victim of a politically motivated campaign.
Inside Brazil, the debate over amnesty has reached a fever pitch. Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta acknowledged this week that “there is still no decision” on the matter but confirmed that negotiations have intensified in recent days to bring the issue before Congress. Supporters of amnesty argue that reconciliation is necessary to heal the country’s divisions and move forward, while opponents warn that it would set a dangerous precedent, signaling impunity for those who threaten democratic order.
For Bolsonaro, Sunday’s demonstrations represent a crucial opportunity to show that his movement remains a force to be reckoned with, even as he faces the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence. The absence of the former president himself—confined to house arrest—will not diminish the fervor of his backers, who see the rallies as both a show of strength and a plea for clemency.
Meanwhile, Lula and his allies are determined to hold the line, insisting that the rule of law must prevail and that Brazil’s democracy cannot afford to look the other way when faced with attempts to undermine it. The official parade in Brasília will proceed under tight security and a watchful eye, as the country holds its breath for the verdict that could reshape its political landscape for years to come.
As the Supreme Court prepares to rule and the streets fill with demonstrators, Brazil finds itself at a crossroads. The coming days will test not only the fate of Jair Bolsonaro but also the resilience of the nation’s democratic institutions. Whether the country emerges more united or further divided may hinge on what happens in the courts—and in the streets—this Independence Day weekend.