Brazil has reached a dramatic turning point in its modern political history. On September 11, 2025, a panel of Supreme Court justices handed down a sentence that will reverberate for years to come: former president Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting a coup to remain in power after his 2022 electoral defeat, and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison. The verdict, reached by a majority of four out of five justices on the panel, marks the first time a former Brazilian head of state has been convicted for trying to overthrow the government, according to reporting from the Associated Press and NPR.
Bolsonaro, a deeply polarizing figure who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, was found guilty on five counts, including plotting a coup, being part of an armed criminal organization, and attempting the violent abolition of democratic rule of law. The charges stemmed from Bolsonaro’s efforts to cling to power after losing the 2022 election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors presented evidence that included video footage of Bolsonaro urging supporters to reject the authority of the Supreme Court between 2021 and 2023, as well as a chilling document dubbed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger, which outlined plans to assassinate then-President-elect Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. As NPR reported, this document was not some fringe plot—it was discovered inside the presidential palace itself.
Justice de Moraes, who led the case and has long been seen as a nemesis of Bolsonaro, did not mince words in his ruling. He described Bolsonaro as “the leader of a criminal organization” and accused him of orchestrating efforts to undermine Brazil’s democracy. “This wasn’t drafted in secret by terrorists,” Moraes told the court, “It was written in Brazil’s government headquarters, while Bolsonaro was in office.” The evidence, he said, was “overwhelming.”
Bolsonaro, 70, has been under house arrest in Brasília since August and did not attend the court proceedings. He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, and his lawyers, led by Celso Villardi, have argued that there is no concrete evidence linking him to a coup plot. “No one can be punished for cogitation,” argued Justice Luiz Fux in a lengthy dissent, emphasizing that a coup requires coordination and organizational capacity, not just isolated acts or rhetoric. Fux called for Bolsonaro’s acquittal and suggested the case should be heard by the full 11-member Supreme Court—a point Bolsonaro’s legal team is now expected to use in their appeal.
Despite the verdict, the former president’s influence in Brazilian politics remains strong. He was previously barred from holding public office until 2030 for spreading disinformation about Brazil’s voting system, but still commands a fiercely loyal base. In 2022, he captured 49% of the vote, and even now, tens of thousands have taken to the streets in his defense. Some of his supporters see the conviction as political persecution and have called for his amnesty through Congress. Lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, took to social media to urge lawmakers to “do nothing less than what is correct, just.”
Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, also weighed in on social media, writing, “There is a God in heaven who sees everything, who loves justice and hates iniquity.” The trial has left Brazilian society sharply divided, with some celebrating the conviction as a long-overdue reckoning with authoritarianism, and others decrying it as an attack on democracy itself.
The international response has been swift and, in some quarters, severe. U.S. President Donald Trump, a close ally of Bolsonaro, expressed his dismay just hours after the verdict. “I was very unhappy with the conviction,” Trump told reporters outside the White House, adding, “I always found Bolsonaro to be outstanding.” He went further, likening the situation to his own legal troubles, saying, “It’s very much like what they tried to do with me, but they didn’t get away with it at all.”
The conviction has added fuel to already tense diplomatic relations between Brazil and the United States. The Trump administration responded to earlier developments in the case by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and sanctioning Justice de Moraes, stripping him of his U.S. visa. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized the administration’s commitment to protecting free speech globally, stating, “This president is unafraid to use the economic might, the military might of the United States to protect free speech around the world.” Observers warn that further sanctions could be on the horizon, potentially straining the fragile ties between the two countries even more.
Bolsonaro’s legal woes are far from over. In addition to the coup conviction, he faces charges related to the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília, when his supporters stormed government buildings, causing widespread property damage and destroying historical artifacts. The chaos was a direct outgrowth of the disinformation campaign Bolsonaro waged against Brazil’s electronic voting system, which prosecutors say laid the groundwork for the attempted coup. The Supreme Court trial featured video evidence of Bolsonaro’s speeches to supporters, urging them to reject the authority of the court and, by extension, the democratic process itself.
The trial is a watershed moment for Brazil, a country with a long and troubled history of military coups—most notably the 1964 takeover that led to two decades of dictatorship. Now, as the Supreme Court seeks to hold a former president accountable for allegedly steering the nation back toward authoritarianism, the stakes could hardly be higher. The ruling is expected to embolden Bolsonaro’s political rivals and may prompt his allies to push even harder for his amnesty or for the selection of a political heir to challenge Lula in the 2026 general elections. As NPR reported, Bolsonaro’s allies are already jockeying for position, betting that his influence will continue to shape the country’s political landscape.
Yet, for all the drama and division, the verdict sends a clear message: Brazil’s democracy, though battered and deeply polarized, is determined to hold even its most powerful leaders accountable. As the country braces for the next chapter, the world watches closely—wondering what comes next for the “Trump of the Tropics” and for Brazil itself.