Brazil has made history with the conviction of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for orchestrating a failed coup to remain in office after losing the 2022 presidential election. On September 11, 2025, the country’s Supreme Court found Bolsonaro guilty of plotting to overturn the election results, in a 4-1 ruling, and sentenced him to 27 years and three months in prison. This landmark case marks the first time in Brazil’s modern history that a former leader has been held criminally accountable for attempting to subvert the nation’s democracy—no small feat in a country that has lived through 15 coups.
The details of the conspiracy are chilling. According to Reuters and The Associated Press, the coup plan involved dissolving the Supreme Court, granting sweeping powers to the military, and even plotting the assassination of President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as Justice Alexandre de Moraes and other top officials. The two-year police investigation that unraveled the plot uncovered printed assassination plans brought to the presidential palace and damaging testimony from Bolsonaro’s own personal secretary.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the trial, did not mince words before casting his guilty vote. “Brazil almost returned to its 20-year dictatorship because a criminal organization, comprised of a political group, doesn’t know how to lose elections,” he declared, emphasizing the gravity of the evidence. The verdict not only targeted Bolsonaro but also handed down long sentences to four of his seven co-conspirators, including two former defense ministers and a former spy chief, according to The Week.
Bolsonaro, a 70-year-old former army captain who has never hidden his admiration for the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985, has maintained his innocence throughout the proceedings. He accused Justice Moraes of unfairly targeting him and his right-wing movement, calling the process a political persecution. “The ruling was a mistake and the punishment far too harsh,” his lawyers said, vowing to appeal the decision, potentially even in international courts, as reported by Reuters.
The legal path ahead for Bolsonaro is narrow. Brazilian law stipulates that, with only one of the five Supreme Court justices dissenting, he cannot directly appeal the verdict to the full 11-justice bench. His defense team can, however, file two rounds of legal motions with the same five-justice panel, which could result in a reduced sentence or changes to how the sentence is applied. Given his age and health issues—he’s been under house arrest, fitted with an ankle monitor, and is considered a flight risk—Bolsonaro’s lawyers are expected to request that he serve his sentence at home rather than in prison. He has been repeatedly hospitalized due to complications from a 2018 stabbing attack, which may further support his bid for house arrest.
Despite the severity of the sentence, it remains uncertain whether Bolsonaro will spend many years behind bars. Under Brazil’s penal system, convicts may eventually serve part of their sentences outside prison, depending on the crime’s gravity and their behavior. For now, Bolsonaro’s fate lies in the hands of the Supreme Court panel, which will review any legal challenges his team brings forward once the official decision is published.
The repercussions of the verdict extend far beyond Brazil’s borders. Bolsonaro, often compared to and closely allied with former U.S. President Donald Trump, found himself at the center of an international tug-of-war as the trial progressed. Trump, in a highly unusual move, attempted to pressure Brazil into dropping the case by imposing steep 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods and slapping harsh sanctions on Justice Moraes. According to The New York Times, these efforts failed to sway the court but did strain U.S.-Brazil relations, with the tariffs hurting key industries in both countries and raising prices for American consumers of Brazilian coffee and beef.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quick to denounce the Supreme Court’s decision, labeling the trial a “witch hunt” and promising a forceful American response. “The United States will respond accordingly to this witch hunt,” Rubio stated on social media, signaling possible sanctions against the justices who voted to convict. Brazilian President Lula, for his part, stood firm. “One country can’t be interfering in the sovereign decisions of another country,” he told a Brazilian news outlet, adding that Brazil was prepared to retaliate if necessary. The government has already begun to expand trade ties with India, Mexico, and China to offset any fallout from U.S. punitive measures.
The conviction has also deepened Brazil’s already pronounced political polarization. Polls cited by GZERO Media show that public opinion is split, with 43% of Brazilians viewing the trial as unfair and 51% backing the conviction. Silvio Cascione, an analyst with Eurasia Group, warned that the ruling “crystallizes Brazil’s deep polarization rather than resolving it,” and expressed concern that the real danger lies in the ongoing erosion of institutional trust. Courts, media, and political parties all suffer from a credibility deficit, he noted, and this case is unlikely to heal those wounds.
Bolsonaro’s influence on Brazilian politics is far from over. Despite being banned from seeking public office, he remains a kingmaker on the right. Polls indicate he would be the strongest challenger to President Lula in the next election, making his endorsement a coveted prize for conservative candidates. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has already positioned himself as a potential heir to Bolsonaro’s movement, courting his base and floating an amnesty bill in Congress.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian public is watching closely as the legal and political drama unfolds. Some celebrated the verdict, seeing it as a long-overdue reckoning for a leader who tried to subvert democracy. Others worry about the precedent it sets and the risk of further instability. As Reuters reported, Bolsonaro’s lawyers called the case a “mistake” and an “absurdly excessive and disproportionate” punishment, and they are determined to keep fighting, both at home and abroad.
Brazil’s Supreme Court has sent a powerful message about the rule of law and the resilience of its democratic institutions. Yet the nation remains on edge, bracing for whatever comes next—be it appeals, further political polarization, or international fallout. As the dust settles, one thing is clear: the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro is a watershed moment for Brazil, and its impact will be felt for years to come.