Brazil and the United States, two of the Western Hemisphere’s largest democracies, now find themselves locked in a diplomatic and economic standoff that’s sending ripples across global markets and raising alarms about the future of international norms. The conflict erupted after Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro on charges linked to an attempted coup, sentencing him to more than 27 years in prison—a decision that has drawn fierce condemnation from Washington and triggered a tit-for-tat escalation between the two nations.
It all began on September 12, 2025, when a panel of Brazil’s highest court found Bolsonaro guilty of trying to overturn the results of the 2022 election. The court cited his repeated claims that the voting system was unreliable, evidence of discussions with aides about invoking an emergency decree to block the results, and the violent unrest that erupted in Brazil’s capital after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s inauguration. Prosecutors argued that Bolsonaro’s actions fueled a crisis that posed a grave threat to Brazil’s democracy. His defense team, however, countered that even if such discussions took place, no emergency decree was ever issued and that Bolsonaro ultimately allowed the peaceful transfer of power.
But the conviction didn’t just stay within Brazil’s borders. Instead, it set off a firestorm in Washington. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has maintained close ties with Bolsonaro, denounced the ruling, saying he was "very unhappy" with the outcome and warning of consequences. Trump’s administration, still in office, quickly followed up with a series of punitive measures: a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a trade investigation, and, most notably, sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw Bolsonaro’s case. These sanctions, imposed under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, are typically reserved for those accused of egregious human rights abuses, making their use in this context especially provocative.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn’t mince words either, calling the conviction a "witch hunt" and promising that the American government "would respond accordingly." White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added fuel to the fire, declaring, "The president is unafraid to use the economic might, the military might of the United States of America to protect free speech around the world." According to The Associated Press, these statements were met with swift rebuttal from Brazil’s Foreign Ministry, which described them as "inappropriate threats" and emphasized the independence of Brazil’s judiciary. "Threats like the one made today by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement that attacks Brazilian authority and ignores the facts and compelling evidence in the case files, will not intimidate our democracy," the Foreign Ministry wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Brazilian officials say they were not caught off guard. Senator Rogério Carvalho, leader of the government in the Senate, explained that the administration of President Lula had long anticipated possible retaliation from the United States and had prepared contingency plans to cushion the blow for Brazilian businesses. "The government already has a plan to support affected companies and mitigate losses from the tariffs. Brazil is aggressively seeking new markets to make up for a potential drop in exports to the United States," Carvalho told The Associated Press in a phone interview. Indeed, Brazil has accelerated efforts to diversify its trading partners, with China emerging as an increasingly important ally. When the U.S. tariffs kicked in, China ramped up its purchases from Brazil by 31% in August 2025 compared to the previous year, while Brazil’s exports to the U.S. dropped 18.5% over the same period, according to The New York Times.
Public sentiment in Brazil has shifted alongside these economic changes. A recent survey found that the percentage of Brazilians with a positive view of the United States fell from 58% in February 2024 to 44% in August 2025. Meanwhile, favorable opinions of China jumped from 38% to 49%. While Bolsonaro’s supporters have been waving American flags at protests to thank Trump, the broader Brazilian public seems to be cooling on the U.S.—and warming to China. President Lula himself has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping at least twice since the tariffs took effect, but not once with Trump, highlighting the growing importance of Beijing in Brazil’s foreign policy calculus.
The U.S. campaign against Brazil has not been without controversy at home or abroad. Some American officials, like Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, have described the current crisis as the lowest point in U.S.-Brazil relations in two centuries. "As long as Brazil leaves the fate of our relationship in Justice Moraes’ hands, I see no resolution to this crisis," Landau wrote online. On the other hand, many in Brazil’s political left recall the U.S. support for the 1964 military coup that ushered in a 21-year dictatorship, arguing that the present moment is yet another example of Washington meddling in Brazil’s internal affairs. U.S. officials, for their part, insist they are defending democracy, not undermining it.
Within Brazil, the conviction of Bolsonaro has united the country’s democratic institutions in support of the judiciary. Justice Flávio Dino, as he cast his vote to convict Bolsonaro, challenged the notion that foreign pressure could sway the court: "Does anyone believe that a tweet from a foreign government official will change a ruling in the Supreme Court?" Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, targeted by U.S. sanctions, has also received strong backing from his peers and the broader political establishment. Still, the U.S. Treasury Department’s willingness to sanction Brazilian justices has shocked many in Brasília, who see it as a direct affront to their judicial independence.
President Lula has not shied away from confronting the U.S. threats head on. In a television interview, he called Trump’s actions "an arrogant denial of Brazil’s right to judge its own crimes," adding, "A president of one country cannot interfere in the sovereign decisions of another country. If he chooses to take further action, that’s his problem. We will respond as measures are taken." Lula’s defiance appears to have paid off politically, with his approval ratings rising as he stands up to Washington.
Looking ahead, analysts warn that the standoff could escalate further. Christopher Garman of Eurasia Group told The Associated Press that the White House may extend sanctions to other justices who convicted Bolsonaro—and possibly their families. He also noted that more tariffs could be imposed, particularly given Brazil’s ongoing energy ties with Russia. For now, Brazil’s strategy is to weather the storm by strengthening ties with other global players and supporting its domestic industries in the face of American pressure.
As the dust settles, the episode serves as a stark reminder of how quickly international alliances can shift—and how the actions of a few individuals can reverberate far beyond their own borders. For Brazil and the U.S., the road ahead looks uncertain, with both nations standing firm and the world watching closely to see who will blink first.