On a rainy week in late November 2025, the streets outside Brazil’s federal police headquarters in Brasília were a far cry from the raucous, flag-waving crowds that once rallied for Jair Bolsonaro. Instead, a handful of loyalists, some holding umbrellas and others clutching signs, braved the drizzle to protest the former president’s incarceration. Their numbers were dwarfed by the magnitude of the moment: the once-dominant right-wing leader had begun serving a 27-year and three-month prison sentence for orchestrating a failed coup after losing the 2022 presidential election.
The scene was both somber and surreal. According to The Guardian, only about two dozen supporters gathered, a far cry from the thousands who used to flood Brazil’s largest cities in support of Bolsonaro. The mood, as one observer put it, matched the weather: subdued and uncertain. Some, like 21-year-old activist Arley Xavier, tried to put a brave face on the situation. “It’s not over. There’s still so much Jair Messias Bolsonaro needs to do here in Brazil … No, it’s not over,” Xavier insisted, urging conservatives to flock to Brasília in protest. But the call to arms went largely unanswered.
The former president’s legal troubles reached their climax on Tuesday, November 25, when Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes declared the case against Bolsonaro final, with no further appeals possible. As reported by BBC, Bolsonaro, now 70, was found guilty of leading a conspiracy to remain in power after his defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The conspiracy, according to court documents, included plans to assassinate both President Lula and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, as well as to arrest and execute Justice Moraes himself. However, the plot failed to gain the backing of senior military officials, and Lula was sworn in without incident on January 1, 2023.
Bolsonaro’s legal woes did not end with the coup conviction. The court also found him guilty of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, armed criminal organization, aggravated damage with serious threat or violence to state property, and damage to historical heritage, as detailed by Agência Brasil. Alongside Bolsonaro, five top allies—including former ministers Walter Braga Netto, Augusto Heleno, Paulo Sergio Nogueira, Anderson Torres, and former Navy commander Almir Garnier—were ordered to begin serving their sentences. Justice Moraes made clear that the arrests should be conducted with dignity, without handcuffs or media spectacle.
Bolsonaro’s downfall was partly self-inflicted. On Saturday, November 22, he was removed from house arrest and detained at the federal police complex after attempting to tamper with his electronic ankle monitor. At a hearing the next day, Bolsonaro admitted to trying to open the device with a soldering iron, blaming a recent change in medication for chronic hiccups for causing a nervous breakdown and hallucinations. “I came to my senses,” he told the court, as reported by BBC. The Supreme Court, citing the tampering as evidence of a potential flight risk, rejected his defense team’s request for house arrest and ordered that he remain in the federal police headquarters rather than being transferred to a maximum-security or military prison.
Confined to a 12-square-metre cell, Bolsonaro has received visits from his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and two of his sons. Michelle, who stayed for 30 minutes on November 27, posted on Instagram: “These are difficult times but my heart remains in peace because the Lord continues in control.” His youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, described his efforts to support his father emotionally: “We chat about soccer, about my life as his son. I try to distract him, always talking to him, trying to cheer him up and make him smile.” Outside the police facility, protesters held signs comparing Justice Moraes to notorious Nazi-era judge Roland Freisler, underscoring the bitterness among Bolsonaro’s most ardent supporters.
Yet, the reaction from the broader right-wing movement was unexpectedly muted. Political scientist Christian Lynch told The Guardian, “I’d say the Bolsonaro family’s leadership of the right is coming to an end and you could say Bolsonarismo is coming to an end.” Lynch contrasted Bolsonaro’s quiet surrender with the dramatic scenes that accompanied Lula’s 2018 arrest, when supporters hoisted him onto their shoulders in a moment of political theater. “Bolsonarismo is like foam that is washed away … The right will remain. But Bolsonarismo will pass.”
Others, however, cautioned against writing Bolsonaro’s political obituary just yet. Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, noted that Lula himself was counted out after his 2018 imprisonment, only to return and win the presidency in 2022. “It really did seem he was done and that he might die in prison – and, of course, history went in a different direction,” Winter observed. Bernardo Mello Franco, author of Architecture of Destruction, pointed to other Brazilian leaders who made improbable comebacks, though he considered Bolsonaro “a politically smaller figure, in every imaginable sense.”
Despite his conviction, Bolsonaro could be eligible for parole after six or seven years, potentially returning to politics before the end of his sentence. However, he has been barred from running for public office until 2060—eight years after his prison term is set to end. Some supporters hope for an amnesty or pardon, particularly if a conservative wins the next presidential election, but the prospects appear uncertain.
The muted public response to Bolsonaro’s imprisonment has led commentators like Octavio Guedes of GloboNews to declare the dawn of a “post-Bolsonaro” era. “Zero public reaction” to his jailing, Guedes argued, signals that while the movement may persist, its figurehead has lost his grip. “Bolsonaro dies, but these radical ideas and ideology are here to stay,” he said, echoing a sentiment that the Brazilian right will endure, even if its most controversial champion fades from the scene.
For now, Bolsonaro’s world has shrunk to a small cell in Brasília, his future uncertain, his supporters divided, and his legacy hotly debated. As history has shown, Brazilian politics is rarely predictable, and while Bolsonaro’s chapter may be closing, the story of Brazil’s right—and its democracy—continues to unfold.