Brazil stands on a political precipice this week as its Supreme Court prepares to deliver a potentially historic verdict in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The case, which centers on Bolsonaro’s alleged orchestration of a coup attempt following his defeat in the October 2022 presidential elections, has gripped the nation and sent diplomatic shockwaves as far as Washington, D.C.
Bolsonaro, once dubbed the “Trump of the tropics” for his populist style and combative rhetoric, faces five serious charges: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and two counts related to the destruction of state property during the violent protests that erupted on January 8, 2023. If convicted, the former president could face up to 40 years in prison, with the coup plot charge alone carrying a 12-year sentence, as reported by AP and Reuters.
Since August 2025, Bolsonaro has been under house arrest in a heavily guarded building in Brasilia, forbidden from using social media and with sharply restricted communications. The country’s electoral commission had already barred him from running for office until 2030, citing abuse of power. Despite these measures, Bolsonaro remains a potent political force, with tens of thousands of supporters rallying in his defense and decrying the trial as a politically motivated effort by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government to sideline him ahead of the 2026 elections.
The trial, which began deliberations on September 9, has already seen three of the five Supreme Court justices cast their votes. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, overseeing the case and viewed by Bolsonaro loyalists as a key adversary, was the first to vote for conviction. In a marathon five-hour statement, Moraes declared, “Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship,” referencing the country’s military rule from 1964 to 1985. He cited evidence of a Bolsonaro-led plot, codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger, which allegedly targeted Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Moraes himself for assassination. According to Moraes, these efforts culminated in the January 8, 2023, storming of Congress, the Presidential Palace, and the Supreme Court by Bolsonaro supporters.
Justice Flavio Dino also voted for conviction, while Justice Luiz Fux broke ranks, calling for the case to be annulled due to what he described as an “absolute lack of jurisdiction.” Fux argued that the Supreme Court should not have heard the case as Bolsonaro and his co-defendants were no longer political appointees, and that the full 11-member panel, not a five-member one, should have presided. He also criticized the process, saying the defense was not given enough time to prepare, while prosecutors had access to what he called a “tsunami of data.” Nevertheless, Fux did vote against two Bolsonaro allies on separate charges.
The final two votes, from Justices Carmen Lucia and Cristiano Zanin—both appointed by Lula—are expected imminently. A conviction requires only one more vote in favor. Sentencing could follow as early as September 12, thrusting Brazil into uncharted political territory. The trial is already being hailed by some as “historic,” marking the first time the country has sought to hold a leader accountable for an attempted coup.
The trial has exposed and deepened bitter divides in Brazilian society. In recent days, Bolsonaro’s supporters have staged massive protests, including a particularly charged rally on September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day. Many demand amnesty for Bolsonaro and his allies and insist he should be allowed to run again in 2026. At one such rally, Bolsonaro’s wife Michelle, visibly emotional, told the crowd the trial had brought “humiliation” to her family. Meanwhile, counterprotests have called for Bolsonaro’s conviction and denounced what they see as undue interference from the United States, especially under President Donald Trump’s administration.
The international dimension of the trial cannot be overstated. Trump, who has repeatedly expressed solidarity with Bolsonaro, imposed a 50% trade tariff on Brazil on August 1, 2025, citing the prosecution of his ally as part of the justification. Trump wrote to President Lula, calling the trial an “international disgrace” and accusing him of mistreating Bolsonaro. The U.S. Department of State also sanctioned Justice de Moraes, barring him and certain family members from obtaining U.S. visas and ordering the confiscation of any U.S. properties.
Tensions escalated further on September 9, when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, responding to a question about the trial, stated that the administration was “unafraid to use the economic might, the military might, of the United States to protect free speech around the world.” While Leavitt offered no specifics, the remark sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles and raised fears of U.S. intervention. Brazilian lawmaker Gleisi Hoffman fired back, accusing the U.S. of threatening to “invade Brazil to free Jair Bolsonaro from prison,” and labeling the statement “utterly unacceptable.” She added, “And yet [the US] claims to be defending ‘freedom of expression’. Only if it’s the freedom to lie, to coerce the Justice system, and to plot a coup d’etat; those are indeed the crimes for which Bolsonaro and his accomplices are being tried in due legal process.”
The possibility of U.S. military action, while remote, cannot be entirely discounted. The U.S. recently deployed naval forces to the Caribbean, officially to combat drug trafficking, but the move coincided with threats against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and a U.S. missile strike on a Venezuelan boat. President Lula has criticized the American military presence in the region as a “factor of tension.”
Bolsonaro’s defense, led by lawyer Celso Vilardi, maintains that the former president is innocent. Vilardi argues that while Bolsonaro did convene top officials to discuss an emergency decree to suspend the elections, the decree was never issued and Bolsonaro ultimately ordered a peaceful transition of power to Lula. The defense also contends that the trial is being used to keep Bolsonaro out of politics, a claim echoed by Trump and his allies.
Among those standing trial with Bolsonaro are several high-profile former officials and military figures, including Walter Braga Netto, Paulo Sergio Nogueira, Mauro Cid, Augusto Heleno Ribeiro, Anderson Torres, Almir Garnier Santos, and Alexandre Ramagem. The outcome of the trial will not only determine Bolsonaro’s fate but could also set a precedent for how Brazil handles future threats to its democracy.
As the Supreme Court prepares to render its verdict, Brazil remains on edge. The nation’s streets are alive with protest and counterprotest, reflecting the profound divisions that have only deepened since the fraught 2022 election. The world is watching closely, as the verdict will shape not only Brazil’s future but also its standing on the global stage, especially in its increasingly tense relationship with the United States.
For now, all eyes are on the Supreme Court, where the final votes will decide whether Brazil’s democracy emerges strengthened or further fractured by this unprecedented moment.