Bolivia, a country long governed by the leftist Movement Towards Socialism (MAS-IPSP), has entered a new political era after the general elections held on August 17, 2025. For the first time in two decades, right-wing forces have swept the polls, signaling a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape and setting the stage for a high-stakes runoff that could reshape Bolivia’s economic and social trajectory.
The results, as reported by Morning Star and AFP, were nothing short of historic. Christian Democrat Rodrigo Paz Pereira emerged as the surprise frontrunner, capturing 31.32 percent of the votes. Close behind was Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a hard-right former president, with 27.35 percent. Samuel Doria (Unity) took third place with 20.63 percent, and Manfred Reyes Villa (APB) followed in fifth with 6.31 percent. Collectively, right-wing candidates amassed over 85 percent of the votes, effectively ending the MAS-IPSP’s 20-year reign.
The left, once the dominant force in Bolivian politics, found itself in disarray. Andronico Rodriguez, representing the Alianza Popular (AP) and a former ally-turned-rival of Evo Morales, managed only 7.76 percent. Eduardo del Castillo, the candidate backed by outgoing President Luis Arce, garnered a mere 3.18 percent. Morales himself, barred from running after a contentious disqualification, called on supporters to spoil their ballots—an act that accounted for a staggering 19 percent of the total.
The parliamentary results were equally devastating for the left. The MAS-IPSP lost all 36 seats in the Senate and retained just six of the 130 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The right-wing parties now control the entire Senate and a commanding majority in the Chamber, with 123 seats. This seismic shift in political power marks the end of an era and the beginning of a new chapter for Bolivia.
A runoff between Paz and Quiroga is scheduled for October 19, 2025. Doria has already pledged his support to Paz, consolidating the right’s position. The outcome of this duel will determine not just the presidency, but the direction of Bolivia’s economic and foreign policies for years to come.
To understand how Bolivia reached this turning point, it’s essential to revisit the events that led to the MAS-IPSP’s downfall. Evo Morales, a towering figure in Bolivian and Latin American politics, first took office in 2005 and was re-elected in 2009 and 2014. His controversial decision to run again in 2019, despite constitutional limits, sparked widespread opposition. Morales lost a 2016 referendum that would have allowed him to seek another term, but a Constitutional Court ruling later nullified the results, permitting his candidacy.
The 2019 election, observed and audited by the Organisation of American States (OAS), was marred by allegations of irregularities. The OAS’s report, presented before the final vote count, fueled accusations of fraud and ultimately led to Morales’s ouster in a violent coup. What followed was a year of turmoil, repression, and exile for many MAS supporters.
In 2020, Luis Arce, Morales’s former finance minister, won the presidency with 55 percent of the vote, restoring MAS to power. By 2023, Arce had steered the economy to a record GDP of $45 billion, and Bolivia enjoyed one of the region’s highest growth rates. However, cracks within the party soon appeared. In October 2023, Morales was controversially declared the sole MAS candidate for the 2025 election at a disputed congress, prompting a split between his faction and that of President Arce. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal eventually disqualified Morales, deepening the rift.
The infighting reached fever pitch in 2024, with both factions trading accusations and mobilizing supporters in disruptive protests. The Morales camp, dominant in the Senate, blocked government initiatives, while the Arce administration resorted to austerity measures in a desperate bid to stabilize a faltering economy.
Bolivia’s economic woes proved decisive in the election. As reported by AFP, the country’s export revenues plummeted from $2.175 billion in 2022 to $1.256 billion in 2024, transforming Bolivia from a net exporter to a net importer of petrol and diesel. State subsidies for fuel ballooned to $2 billion by 2025. International reserves, once robust at $11 billion in 2017, dwindled to just $1.98 billion by 2024. Public debt soared to 95 percent of GDP. Shortages of dollars, fuel, and basic goods became commonplace, and food inflation hit 25 percent, the highest since 2008.
As the crisis deepened, both the right-wing opposition and Morales’s supporters blamed Arce’s government for the economic collapse. The electorate, battered by inflation and scarcity, turned away from the left in droves.
The campaign for the upcoming runoff has highlighted sharp policy contrasts. Rodrigo Paz has promised to liberalize the economy, moving away from the MAS’s "statist" model. Quiroga, meanwhile, has pledged a radical overhaul: scrapping billion-dollar lithium extraction deals with Russia and China, pursuing free trade agreements with Europe and Asia, and severing ties with leftist governments in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. In an interview with AFP, Quiroga was unequivocal: “We don’t recognize (outgoing President Luis) Arce’s contracts... Let’s stop them, they won’t be approved.”
Lithium, a key resource for the global transition to electric vehicles, has become a central issue. Bolivia boasts some of the world’s largest reserves, located in the Salar de Uyuni salt flats. The Arce government’s $2 billion deals with Russia’s Uranium One and China’s CBC (a CATL subsidiary) were intended to jumpstart extraction, but internal MAS divisions and legal challenges from indigenous groups stalled the projects. Quiroga has criticized the selection process for these contracts, claiming they were made “behind the back” of local authorities and vowing to introduce new legislation to prevent favoritism.
The MAS split has not only weakened the party electorally but also fractured the broad coalition of social organizations that once formed its backbone. The party’s unique structure—a fusion of indigenous, peasant, women’s, miners’, and workers’ organizations—has been undermined by infighting, making unity on the left increasingly elusive. Both the Arce and Morales factions still profess commitment to the principles of national sovereignty, public ownership of natural resources, and indigenous rights, but personal ambitions and strategic miscalculations have overshadowed these shared values.
With the right now holding the presidency, both chambers of parliament, and a demoralized opposition, Bolivia’s powerful oligarchy is poised to attempt a rollback of the social gains achieved under MAS rule. Yet, as history has shown, the Bolivian people have a deep tradition of resistance and struggle. The coming months will test not only the resilience of the left but also the resolve of the new government as it confronts a nation in crisis and a society divided.
The outcome of the October 19 runoff will determine whether Bolivia continues down the path of liberalization and international realignment or if a new chapter of social mobilization and contestation awaits. For now, the country stands at a crossroads, its future uncertain but its political stakes higher than ever.