Bolivia’s political landscape has been dramatically upended following the country’s presidential elections on August 18, 2025. In a contest marked by surprises, shifting allegiances, and a surge of grassroots energy, Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and his unlikely vice presidential pick, Edman Lara, emerged as front-runners, securing 32% of the vote. This result has propelled them into a high-stakes runoff set for October 19 against right-wing former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Alianza Libre party, who garnered 27% of the vote, according to preliminary results reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and cited by multiple media outlets including CubaSí and Ruido Blanco.
The numbers, drawn from the Preliminary Results System (Sirepre), reflect the processing of over 91% of ballots, with 4,851,667 valid votes cast—representing 78.57% of the total—while an unprecedented 19.04% of ballots were spoiled. This spike in spoiled votes, amounting to 1,175,519 ballots, was largely attributed to a campaign led by former president Evo Morales, who called on his supporters to reject all candidates by spoiling their votes. For context, the previous election saw only 3.5% of ballots spoiled, underscoring the impact of Morales’s influence and the deep divisions within the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), the party that had governed Bolivia for nearly two decades.
The election itself unfolded peacefully, with no major incidents reported. Óscar Hassenteufel, president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, praised the civic integrity of Bolivian voters and highlighted the crucial role of international observers in ensuring a transparent process. He stated, “The preliminary results of the counts attest to this,” reaffirming the credibility of the electoral body’s work.
But the real story of the night was the rise of Edman Lara, a 39-year-old former police captain who was dismissed from the force in 2024 after exposing corruption within the Bolivian police. Lara, now a market trader in Santa Cruz, leveraged his massive TikTok following and grassroots live streams to connect with everyday Bolivians—a stark contrast to the elite-focused campaigns of his rivals. “From vertigo to surprise” is how journalist Gerson Rivero of Ruido Blanco described the public’s reaction to Lara’s ascent. Lara’s authenticity and direct engagement with issues of justice resonated powerfully, especially among younger voters and the working class. His promise to enact sweeping reforms to tackle police corruption, and his admiration for El Salvador’s security-focused president Nayib Bukele, have further fueled his popularity.
The PDC’s campaign strategy was as unconventional as its candidates. When Paz’s original vice presidential running mate abandoned him just before the deadline, he turned to Lara in a last-minute move that proved decisive. According to political scientist Cristián León, “The calculation wasn’t being done with the right tools. It was thought that this hidden popular vote was inevitably ideological, that it was MAS-supporting, and that it would end with Andrónico.” Instead, the PDC tapped into a widespread desire for political renewal, bridging traditional divides and appealing to voters weary of the old left-right dichotomy.
Paz Pereira, a 57-year-old senator from Tarija and son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (who led Bolivia from 1989 to 1993), has championed a blend of religious, nationalist, and integrationist rhetoric. Sociologist Luciana Jauregui described his platform as “a renewal between the traditional left and right,” even though Paz himself hails from the political establishment. The PDC’s message of “popular capitalism” stood in stark contrast to Quiroga’s elite-oriented campaign, which included proposals to abolish communal lands—alarming many Indigenous communities—and to seek financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
The election’s outcome also reshaped Bolivia’s legislative branch. The PDC captured 16 Senate seats and 46 deputies, while Quiroga’s Alianza Libre secured 12 senators and 37 deputies. Unidad, led by Samuel Doria Medina, took 6 senators and 28 deputies; Manfred Reyes Villa’s APB-Súmate party claimed 1 senator and 6 deputies; and the MAS, once dominant, saw its representation shrink to a single deputy. The new Congress is notably fragmented and plural, lacking any clear majority and forcing political factions to negotiate constantly. Rivero noted, “For better or worse, there are few actors with parliamentary experience.” This pluralism, while promising less polarization, also portends legislative gridlock and complex coalition-building.
Despite the high-profile campaigns and significant spending by some candidates—Doria Medina and Quiroga both invested heavily in social media advertising—Paz Pereira and Lara’s campaign was remarkable for its thrift. Fact-checking organization Bolivia Verifica reported that Paz’s Facebook campaign spent just 200 bolivianos (about US$29), relying almost entirely on the organic virality of their content. León remarked, “The virality of organic content is what actually converts into votes. The rest is fictitious.”
The context of the election was shaped by economic uncertainty and a weakened MAS, beset by internal strife and unable to present a unified front. This fragmentation within the left, combined with Morales’s call for spoiled ballots, paved the way for a runoff between two right-wing candidates—an outcome that would have seemed improbable only months before. Morales, meanwhile, is consolidating his role as a leader of street-level opposition, warning that the next government “will not last long due to social pressure,” as Jauregui explained. Yet, his base remains concentrated among Chapare-region coca growers, and he has struggled to broaden his movement’s appeal.
Looking ahead, whoever wins the October runoff will inherit a country facing economic crisis and the prospect of unpopular austerity measures, including cuts to government subsidies. Many Bolivians, as Jauregui observed, are hoping for a resolution to the crisis through new leadership, but some studies predict a rise in fragmented sectoral conflicts as the situation worsens before it improves. The citizen vote—a mix of rejection of old political structures and a search for fresh alternatives—signals an end to the era defined by support for or opposition to MAS, though the left’s influence is far from extinguished.
In the end, the 2025 Bolivian election has rewritten the rules of engagement, showing the power of digital grassroots movements and the volatility of a political landscape in flux. As Paz Pereira and Lara prepare for the runoff, and Quiroga readies his constitutional reforms, Bolivia stands at a crossroads, its future uncertain but undeniably transformed by the will of its people.