Bolivia is on the cusp of a historic political transition as voters prepare to head to the polls on Sunday, October 19, 2025, for a presidential runoff that promises to end nearly two decades of socialist rule. The Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, founded by former President Evo Morales and long the dominant force in Bolivian politics, suffered a dramatic blow in the first round of voting on August 17, failing to secure an outright victory for the first time since 2005. The runoff will determine whether the country’s next chapter is steered by centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz or conservative former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, both of whom have pledged to move Bolivia away from the MAS-era state-led economic model.
The stakes could hardly be higher. According to Reuters, the fragile Bolivian economy is top of mind for voters. Once-flourishing natural gas exports have plummeted, inflation has soared to a multi-decade high, and fuel is in scarce supply. The new president, set to take office on November 8, will inherit a nation battered by its worst economic crisis in decades and an electorate eager for relief and reform. As Bloomberg notes, while there is giddiness among voters and investors about the prospect of change, the reality of a difficult economic turnaround looms large.
Whoever emerges victorious on Sunday will oversee not just a political sea change but also the end of an era. The MAS party’s dominance since 2005 has shaped almost every aspect of Bolivian life, from the economy to foreign policy. Under Morales and his successors, Bolivia aligned itself more closely with Russia, China, and Iran, often at the expense of relations with Washington. Now, both Paz and Quiroga have signaled their intention to improve ties with the United States, marking a potential realignment in Bolivia’s international posture after nearly two decades of socialist governance.
The runoff pits two distinct visions for Bolivia’s future against each other. Quiroga, 65, who briefly served as president from 2001 to 2002, is running slightly ahead in opinion polls, according to Reuters. His campaign, bolstered by tech executive running mate Juan Pablo Velasco, champions a pro-business message. Quiroga’s platform promises to expand free trade, cut government spending, and restore private property rights—clear signals to both domestic and foreign investors that Bolivia may be open for business in a way it hasn’t been for years.
Paz, 58, is the son of a former president and has managed to energize a new generation of voters, thanks in part to his running mate, Edman Lara, a former police captain turned social media activist. Paz’s first-round victory, with 32% of the vote in a crowded field, defied expectations and underscored the electorate’s appetite for change. His centrist platform focuses on decentralizing government, promoting private-sector growth, and, crucially, maintaining social programs that have become lifelines for many Bolivians during turbulent times.
Both candidates have made it clear that they intend to roll back key elements of the MAS-era, but they differ in how drastically those changes should be implemented. Quiroga’s approach is more radical, with a sharp pivot towards market liberalization and a retreat from state intervention. Paz, meanwhile, advocates a more measured transition, balancing the need for economic dynamism with the preservation of social safety nets. The race is expected to be close, and the outcome will shape not only Bolivia’s economic recovery but also its broader social contract.
The conduct of the election itself has drawn international attention. Bolivia’s electoral tribunal, responding to fraud claims that marred the 2019 presidential vote and led to widespread unrest and Morales’s resignation, has introduced a new voting system this year. Vote tally sheets will be photographed at polling stations and transmitted directly to counting centers, a move designed to increase transparency and restore faith in the electoral process. International observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States will be on hand to oversee the proceedings. Polls will be open from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. local time, with a goal of publishing 80% of preliminary results on election night and official results within seven days.
But the challenges facing the next president extend far beyond the ballot box. Bolivia’s economic woes are deep and multifaceted. The country’s once-plentiful natural gas exports, a cornerstone of government revenues, have sharply declined. Inflation, at a multi-decade high, has eroded household purchasing power, while fuel and dollar shortages have become commonplace. As Bloomberg aptly puts it, the euphoria surrounding the end of socialist rule will soon give way to the reality of a difficult turnaround.
One area where the international community is watching closely is Bolivia’s vast lithium reserves. The country’s salt flats hold the world’s largest resources of this key battery metal—an asset of enormous strategic importance in the global transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy. Yet, as Reuters reports, Bolivia has long struggled to ramp up lithium production or develop commercially viable reserves. Russian and Chinese companies have shown interest and even moved forward with development proposals, but political infighting has stalled progress in the legislature. Investors are hopeful that a new administration—regardless of who wins—will ease regulations and improve access to these largely untapped deposits, potentially transforming Bolivia into a major player in the global energy market.
The election’s significance is not lost on ordinary Bolivians, many of whom are weary after years of political turmoil and economic hardship. The MAS party, once the standard-bearer of Indigenous empowerment and leftist ideals, now faces the reality of an electorate ready for something new. Paz and Quiroga, despite their differences, both represent a break with the past and a promise—however uncertain—of a more prosperous future.
As the country braces for Sunday’s vote, questions abound. Will the new electoral system restore trust in Bolivia’s democracy? Can the next president navigate the twin challenges of economic recovery and political reconciliation? And, perhaps most pressingly, will Bolivia finally be able to harness its natural wealth for the benefit of its people?
Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: Bolivia stands at a crossroads, with the decisions made in the coming days likely to reverberate for years to come.