After nearly two decades of single-party dominance under the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), Bolivia stands on the precipice of profound political change. The country’s presidential runoff election, scheduled for Sunday, October 19, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s modern history—one shaped by economic turmoil, political fatigue, and a widespread hunger for something, anything, different.
For the first time since MAS swept to power in 2005 under the leadership of Evo Morales, two conservative, business-friendly candidates are vying for the presidency. According to FRANCE 24, MAS performed so poorly in the August 17 elections that it nearly lost its legal status, a stark indication of the public’s prevailing desire for change. But as Bolivians prepare to cast their votes, the question lingers: How much change do they want, and how quickly?
The stakes could hardly be higher. Over the past three years, Bolivia has endured an accelerating currency crisis, months of debilitating fuel shortages, and what many describe as the worst economic crisis in four decades. The boliviano’s official exchange rate has all but collapsed, and inflation has soared to its highest level since 1991. Food scarcity and empty shelves have become the norm, with queues snaking outside subsidized bakeries and shoppers embarking on scavenger hunts for staples like oil and rice.
Smuggling has become a lifeline—and a symptom—of the crisis. On the shores of Lake Titicaca, rafts loaded with bread, fuel, and eggs slip across the border to Peru, where state-subsidized Bolivian goods fetch triple the price. Smugglers in Desaguadero, a border town two hours from La Paz, operate openly as border guards look the other way. With Peruvian soles worth nearly four bolivianos on the black market, it’s become lucrative for Bolivians to sell in Peru and stash the proceeds under their mattresses. "Crises are opportunities," Ronald Vallejos, a frequent cross-border trader, told FRANCE 24. "Dollars are sold at a steep premium," he added, describing how he exchanges stacks of bolivianos for soles and hoards the cash at home.
Authorities blame smugglers for the scarcity and soaring prices—sometimes up to 300% higher than normal—of basic staples. "Gratuitous spending, speculation, and smuggling are worsening the situation, increasing prices by up to 300% in some cases," Jorge Silva, Bolivia’s deputy minister of consumer protection, told FRANCE 24. Yet, as many point out, the black market is as much a result of economic dysfunction as it is a cause.
Against this backdrop, the two runoff candidates offer sharply divergent visions for Bolivia’s future. Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, a 65-year-old former president who has run and lost three times before, is pitching a radical break with the past. Quiroga’s platform centers on a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a shock fiscal adjustment, and a wholesale realignment of Bolivia’s geopolitical alliances. Last month, Quiroga traveled to Washington to meet with what he described as "people who can get us out of this rut," promising progress on a $12 billion bailout package from the IMF, Inter-American Development Bank, and World Bank. He’s also touting the potential windfalls from foreign investment in Bolivia’s gas and lithium sectors—though this is a contentious issue, given Indigenous communities’ opposition to water-intensive extraction on their lands.
"We will change all the laws," Quiroga declared at his final campaign rally, according to FRANCE 24. "We will change Bolivia." If elected, he would steer Bolivia away from its two-decade embrace of China and Russia, and toward closer ties with the United States. This prospect excites some, but unnerves others who remain wary of American intervention, recalling the bloody U.S.-led war on drugs that left deep scars in the country.
Quiroga’s main rival, 58-year-old centrist senator Rodrigo Paz, offers a different prescription. Rather than seeking salvation from foreign investors, Paz wants to root out corruption, legalize the black market, and lure Bolivians’ hoarded dollars back into the banking system. He’s promised to phase out wasteful subsidies and allow cross-border smugglers to register as legitimate vendors. "There will be no more smuggling, everything will be legal," Paz declared at his closing campaign rally, as reported by FRANCE 24.
Paz’s running mate, Edman Lara, has injected an element of populist energy into the race. Known as "Captain Lara," the former police officer gained fame for denouncing corruption in viral TikTok videos. Despite having no political experience—and a knack for making grand promises like universal income for women—Lara has become something of a folk hero. His popularity helped Paz pull off a surprise first-place finish in the initial round of voting, even though he had been polling well behind Quiroga. Still, Paz has had to walk back some of Lara’s more expensive proposals, such as massive pension increases, insisting that tough, free-market reforms will be balanced with social protections reminiscent of MAS-era policies.
For many Bolivians, the choice is fraught with uncertainty. In El Alto, a sprawling city overlooking La Paz, several ambivalent voters expressed doubts that either candidate could deliver the rapid turnaround the country needs. "It's not going to be solved quickly, it’s going to take time," said Luisa Vega, a 63-year-old vendor interviewed by FRANCE 24. "Almost no one had confidence in the previous politicians. Who is going to have confidence now?"
Some voters are drawn to Paz and Lara’s promises of inclusivity and anti-corruption, especially among the working class and disillusioned MAS supporters. "Paz and Lara are visiting places that other presidents haven't, they're reaching the poorest people who need their help the most," said José Torres Gómez, a 28-year-old student in El Alto. Others, however, see Quiroga as the only candidate capable of delivering the "180-degree change" they believe is necessary to break with the past. "There are big differences between the candidates," said Antonio, a struggling textile importer. "With Paz and Lara, we’ll continue the past 20 years of economic disaster."
As Sunday’s runoff approaches, opinion polls suggest Quiroga is again in the lead, though Paz’s underdog status and Lara’s populist appeal have kept the race unpredictable. The mainstream media and pollsters have been accused by some voters of bias against Paz, fueling a sense of outsider solidarity. "Everyone is against him, the mainstream media, the pollsters, they want him to lose," Salomé Ramírez, a 37-year-old in downtown La Paz, told FRANCE 24. "That means he gets my vote."
Whoever wins will inherit a country in crisis and a public desperate for relief. The next president’s first order of business will be to draw dollars into the economy and secure enough fuel to ease the shortages. But as Bolivia stands at this crossroads, the only certainty is that the era of MAS dominance is over—and the path forward remains as uncertain as ever.