Bolivia stands on the brink of a political transformation, with the country’s first non-leftist president in two decades likely to emerge from a dramatic runoff election scheduled for October 19, 2025. The first round of voting, held on August 17, delivered a stunning result: centrist senator Rodrigo Paz, a political chameleon with roots in both leftist and neoliberal traditions, surged to the front with 32.8% of the vote. Trailing him is former right-wing president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who garnered 26.4%, setting the stage for a face-off that could reshape the nation’s future.
This election arrives at a moment of acute crisis for Bolivia. According to the BBC and Associated Press, inflation has soared from 2% less than two years ago to a staggering 25% as of July 2025, the highest in nearly four decades. Fuel shortages have paralyzed transportation, medicines and food staples like rice, bread, and cooking oil are increasingly scarce, and the U.S. dollar is difficult to obtain. A recent CAPTURA poll cited by EFE found that 59.1% of Bolivians rate the country’s situation as “very bad,” while another 33.8% say it is simply “bad.” Only a tiny sliver—0.4%—see anything positive in the current state of affairs.
Against this bleak backdrop, voters have made their frustrations clear, rejecting the dominant Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party that has ruled since Evo Morales’s rise during the early 2000s “pink tide.” The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished a distant sixth with just 3.2% of the vote, while Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, once considered the left’s best hope, garnered only 8%. The Associated Press notes that this election was the first since 2002 without Morales or a stand-in on the ballot, yet his influence remains palpable.
Morales, disqualified from running by a court ruling on term limits, called on his supporters to spoil their ballots in protest. Over 19% of votes cast were blank or spoiled, a figure Morales hailed as a “triumph,” according to media outlet erbol. “The fight continues,” Morales declared, organizing a meeting for his loyalists on August 20. President Luis Arce, meanwhile, applauded the electorate for “exercising their civic right and duty to our Homeland” and insisted the process was “peaceful and transparent.” Despite isolated incidents—such as an explosion near a polling station in Cochabamba, a Morales stronghold, and stones thrown at Rodríguez by Morales loyalists—international monitors reported no major disruptions.
Rodrigo Paz’s ascent is as remarkable as it is emblematic of Bolivia’s shifting political winds. The son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, who himself journeyed from Marxist radicalism to neoliberal pragmatism, Rodrigo Paz has spent two decades navigating the country’s turbulent ideological landscape. He began in the Revolutionary Left Movement, then joined Quiroga’s right-wing party before gradually edging toward the technocratic center. Screenshots of his Wikipedia page sparked wry jokes on Bolivian social media about his fluid allegiances, but as political analyst Veronica Rocha told the Associated Press, “Ambivalence is a political asset right now.”
Paz’s campaign style has been a study in contrast to the bombast of his rivals. Alongside his running mate, former police captain Edman Lara—known as “El Capitán”—Paz held modest rallies filled with cheap beer and grilled meat, often recording videos for TikTok to connect with younger voters. Lara, who gained national prominence by exposing police corruption on social media before being fired from the force, resonates with the millions working in Bolivia’s informal economy. According to the Associated Press, after his dismissal, Lara scraped by selling secondhand clothes while his wife drove for a ride-hailing app, making him a folk hero for many who feel left behind.
Paz’s platform, which he describes as “capitalism for all,” promises accessible loans for young entrepreneurs and tax breaks to stimulate the formal economy. He has rejected the idea of an International Monetary Fund bailout, instead pitching moderate reform and social democracy. “Rodrigo stands in the center, a refreshed version of social democracy,” said analyst and former lawmaker Carlos Borth. For many voters, as one snack vendor told the Associated Press, ideology matters less than honesty: “I just support the candidate who I think will steal the least.”
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, on the other hand, offers a sharp break from the past. A former vice president and briefly president after dictator Hugo Bánzer’s retirement, Quiroga is fluent in English, educated at Texas A&M, and has run for president three times before. He promises harsh austerity, an IMF bailout, and the privatization of state-run firms. Quiroga has also pledged to restore relations with the United States, claiming close ties with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and to steer Bolivia away from its recent alliances with China and Russia. “For years we lived in a time of darkness and lack of opportunities like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua,” engineer Jimmy Copa Vargas told the Associated Press. “With Tuto’s government, we’ll open ourselves to the world.”
Quiroga’s campaign has targeted young voters with flashy concerts and a wealthy entrepreneur running mate, but his reliance on macroeconomic jargon and stern, suited image fuels perceptions that he’s out of touch with rural and Indigenous Bolivians. As taxi driver Luis Quispe put it, “I can't trust that he's not going to be the first one out on a lifeboat when Bolivia starts sinking.”
The runoff is as much a referendum on Bolivia’s past as its future. Many see it as the final act of a cycle that began with Morales’s three-term transformation of the country—marked by economic growth, expanded rights for Indigenous people, and generous subsidies—only to end in economic turmoil and political fragmentation. The null-and-void vote, capturing third place, is a testament to the enduring influence of Morales and the deep disillusionment with politicians across the spectrum.
In a curious twist, the night of Paz’s first-round victory was marred by the theft of his mobile phone during a celebratory speech in La Paz, as reported by Euronews and local outlets. The incident, reminiscent of a similar theft suffered by Morales in 2022, became a talking point on social media and underscored the unpredictable, often chaotic nature of Bolivian politics.
As the campaign for the October runoff heats up, the stakes could hardly be higher. Bolivians are demanding solutions to a crisis that has left many struggling for basic necessities. The choice between Paz’s moderate reform and Quiroga’s radical overhaul reflects a nation at a crossroads, searching for stability after years of upheaval. As sociologist Renzo Abruzzese observed, “What is truly historic is that the old cycle is over. It has carried away classical leftist thinking that dominated much of the 20th century.”
The coming weeks will test whether Bolivia is ready to embrace a new political paradigm—or whether the ghosts of its past will continue to haunt its future.