Bitcoin is roaring into 2026, shattering expectations and technical thresholds as it surges past $97,000, drawing both excitement and caution from investors and analysts alike. Over the past several days, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has demonstrated a clear uptrend, reaching a peak of $97,924.49 on January 14 with a 1.31% gain over 24 hours, according to Coinotag. This rally has not only reignited bullish sentiment in the spot market but is also sending ripples through the futures markets, where positioning has turned decisively positive for the first time since October. But with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashing overbought signals and some indicators hinting at potential turbulence ahead, market participants are left wondering: how long can this momentum last?
The current landscape is a dramatic shift from the choppy, uncertain trading that dominated late 2025. As reported by Bitcoinist, Bitcoin’s price action has gradually improved after a volatile November sell-off, which saw prices tumble into the low $80,000s. Since then, buyers have slowly regained control, pushing the cryptocurrency back into a range that once acted as stiff resistance. On January 15, Bitcoin confidently broke above the $95,000 mark, notching its highest daily close since mid-November and cementing a sense of renewed stability after weeks of consolidation.
Behind this price surge lies a fascinating interplay of technical and sentiment-driven factors. Trading volume over the last 24 hours soared to $29.80 billion, underscoring robust liquidity and the presence of both institutional and retail buyers. The 24-hour trading range, spanning from $94,559.28 to $97,924.49, confirms a clear dominance by buyers. Bitcoin is currently trading well above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20) of $91,497.85, a technical sign that the uptrend remains intact. In fact, the coin’s price is supported by a bullish golden cross formation between the EMA50 and EMA100, a classic chart pattern that traders often interpret as a signal of future gains.
Yet, it’s not all blue skies. The RSI, a widely watched momentum indicator, has climbed to 71.35—well into overbought territory. For seasoned crypto traders, this level rings alarm bells, recalling similar warnings before the peaks in 2021 and 2024. While the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) adds fuel to the bullish fire by confirming positive momentum, the Supertrend indicator throws a dash of cold water on the party. It remains bearish, with dynamic resistance set at $104,025.40, suggesting that a trend reversal could still be on the horizon. This resistance zone, highlighted by the Supertrend, is being closely watched as a potential trigger for a short-term pullback.
Support levels, meanwhile, are stacking up as crucial lines in the sand. The strongest support is identified at $97,486.82—an intersection of daily pivot and Fibonacci retracement levels, as detailed by Coinotag. Should Bitcoin retrace to this level, a swift recovery is expected, given the intense support clustered here on the daily timeframe. Further below, $95,505.40 and $90,982.34 serve as additional safety nets, with the latter overlapping the weekly EMA50 and acting as an accumulation zone tested repeatedly during late 2025’s consolidation. These supports, reinforced by multi-timeframe analysis, are seen as buffers that could absorb selling pressure and prevent panic-driven sell-offs.
On the resistance front, things look surprisingly sparse. No strong resistance levels above a score of 60 have been detected, which theoretically leaves the door open for further upside. However, traders are eyeing the psychological $100,000 threshold and the dynamic resistance at $104,025.40 as key hurdles. The absence of substantial resistance suggests that, barring unforeseen shocks, Bitcoin could continue its ascent—though the overbought RSI warns that a breather may be due.
What’s particularly intriguing is the shift in the futures market. According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler and reported by Bitcoinist, Bitcoin’s Positioning Index SMA-30d has climbed to 3.5, marking the first sustained breakout above 3.0 since October 6, 2025. That previous breakout preceded a rally to $125,000, making the current move especially notable. The positioning index, which aggregates futures market dynamics such as open interest, funding, and long-short activity, is often used to spot changes in trader sentiment. As Adler explains, "The key continuation trigger is the SMA holding above the 2.0 level for at least one week, which would validate that the shift is not a short-lived reaction."
Sentiment indices are also painting a bullish picture. The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index peaked at an eye-popping 93.15% when BTC hovered near $95,061, before cooling to around 70%. Importantly, this pullback did not coincide with a breakdown in price structure. The index remains well above the neutral 50% threshold and its 30-day average of 62.9%, indicating that optimism still dominates. Adler interprets the roughly 23-point drop in sentiment as "a healthy release of short-term overheating rather than a trend reversal." Historically, such resets have bolstered trend durability, provided sentiment doesn’t slip below 50% alongside a price drop under $92,000. If Bitcoin can maintain sentiment above 60% during brief consolidations, the path for further upside remains open.
Despite the bullish undertones, risks do linger. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward and sits above the current price, acting as a near-term dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average trends higher well below price, confirming that the broader market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. The recent advance toward $95,000 occurred without a significant volume spike, suggesting that the move was driven more by reduced selling pressure than by a wave of new buyers. This dynamic is consistent with a relief-driven rally—a market catching its breath after a period of stress, rather than a euphoric breakout fueled by FOMO.
For bullish traders, holding above the $93,000–$95,000 range is critical to sustain momentum and build a base for further gains. A failure to consolidate above this zone could see Bitcoin slip back into range-bound trading or even test the $90,000 support area. The risk/reward outlook is balanced: Coinotag calculates a bull target at $115,000 (an 18.4% upside) and a bear target at $80,000 (a 17.6% downside). Volatility remains subdued, with the ATR (Average True Range) declining, but sudden news—be it regulatory changes or ETF updates—could spark sharp moves in either direction.
As Bitcoin navigates this technically charged environment, both short-term traders and long-term holders are advised to keep a close eye on support confluences, resistance tests, and key sentiment indicators. A breakdown below $90,000 would signal a trend break for longer-term investors, while a psychological breakout above $100,000 could open the floodgates to $104,000 and beyond. For now, the overall outlook tilts bullish, but with the caveat that an overbought correction may loom just around the corner.
The coming days and weeks will be pivotal. Will Bitcoin’s bulls maintain their grip, or will caution prevail as technical signals flash yellow? One thing’s for certain: the crypto market is once again center stage, and all eyes are watching to see what happens next.
