Bitcoin’s remarkable journey over the past week has been nothing short of a rollercoaster, with investors, analysts, and traders all glued to their screens as the world’s largest cryptocurrency staged a recovery after flirting with multi-month lows. On Monday, October 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) not only stabilized after a turbulent weekend but managed to break decisively above the $111,000 threshold, rekindling hopes for a renewed bull run—though not without lingering doubts and technical warning signs.
According to 99Bitcoins, Bitcoin’s price action over the weekend was unusually steady, with a slight bullish tilt that had market participants cautiously optimistic. This stability came after a dramatic fall to $103,500 on Friday, a level not seen in nearly four months. The bounce from this low was sharp—a classic "V-shaped" recovery, as noted by DailyForex—with BTC/USD regaining the $111,000 handle in the process. Technical analysts have been quick to point out, however, that the charts are sending mixed messages, with low timeframes hinting at bullishness while higher timeframes suggest potential trouble ahead.
One of the more concerning signals comes from CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which recently dipped below its 365-day moving average. This, as flagged by Coin Bureau on X (formerly Twitter), could be a harbinger of a bearish phase for Bitcoin. "CryptoQuant chart hints that #Bitcoin may be entering a bearish phase, signaling potential trouble ahead. So much for #Uptober…" the account posted. Yet, as 99Bitcoins cautions, this is just one indicator among many, and price can still surprise to the upside.
Looking at the broader context, Bitcoin’s journey from a low of $15,440 in 2022 to a high of $126,150 in early October 2025 represents a staggering 717% increase over 1,050 days—a nearly sevenfold return that would make even the most conservative investors take notice. Still, the technicals are somewhat conflicted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing divergence, indicating weakening buyer momentum, but moving averages continue to provide robust support, sustaining the long-term uptrend.
Zooming in on the daily chart, however, reveals a more cautious picture. After a bearish engulfing candle, Bitcoin’s price fell below its 200-day moving average, only to be rejected at the 100-day moving average on a retest. The crucial $110,000 support level failed to hold, prompting a retest of the broken uptrend support and a key order block between $107,000 and $110,000. Whether bulls can reclaim this level will likely determine the direction of the next major move.
On the four-hour chart, the story is similar. Bitcoin faced resistance at the MA200, pushing the price down to $103,000 before bulls managed a recovery. The RSI has reset, giving the bulls some breathing room, but all major moving averages need to be reclaimed for a sustained upward push. As 99Bitcoins puts it, "At this point price is at resistance and could head back down to make a Lower Low. Let’s see what the week brings."
Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors are playing an outsized role in shaping market sentiment. Cointelegraph reports that the recent rally above $111,000 was driven by improving global conditions, particularly the announcement of a summit between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping scheduled for October 31. The prospect of easing trade tensions has buoyed not only Bitcoin but the entire crypto market, with top altcoins like Ether, XRP, Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin all posting gains of 3% to 5% over the past 24 hours. The global crypto market capitalization has swelled to $3.78 trillion, up 4.6% in a single day.
Interest rate expectations are also fueling optimism. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants are pricing in a 99% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28-29, which could lower rates to 3.75%-4%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at an end to quantitative tightening by January 2026, potentially unleashing a wave of liquidity reminiscent of the 2021 crypto surge.
From a technical analysis standpoint, there are reasons for both caution and hope. Cointelegraph notes that Bitcoin’s recent rebound was accompanied by a bullish RSI divergence on the four-hour chart, signaling that sell-side pressure may be waning as traders buy the dips. Multiple bull flags are forming on higher timeframes, with measured targets ranging from $186,000 to $192,000 in the coming weeks and months. Analyst Mags even suggests that Bitcoin could continue rising within an ascending channel, potentially peaking between $250,000 and $290,000, though Aksel Kibar offers a more conservative target of $141,300 based on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
Still, the path upward is anything but guaranteed. FXStreet warns that daily technical indicators remain predominantly bearish, with strong negative momentum and moving averages in a bearish setup. The daily Ichimoku cloud, spanning between $112,960 and $115,900, presents a formidable resistance barrier. A sustained daily close above $110,000 would keep the near-term action biased higher, but breaking through the cloud is necessary for bulls to truly take control. Conversely, a dip below $107,000-$106,000 would signal a potential stall in the recovery and could open the door for a retest of the $103,000 lows—or even the psychologically significant $100,000 mark.
Institutional activity is also making headlines. 99Bitcoins highlights the launch of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) by BlackRock in the UK on October 20, a move that could attract new waves of capital and further legitimize Bitcoin as an asset class. Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha reports that despite a 4% month-over-month decline in Bitcoin’s price, treasury entities have increased their holdings by 8.4% to 4.04 million coins over the past 30 days, suggesting that long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains strong even as short-term volatility persists.
Trading strategies in this environment are understandably cautious. As outlined by DailyForex, the best approach may be to wait for a bearish retracement to support levels around $109,730 before entering new long positions, while watching for resistance near $111,899. There are no major Bitcoin or US Dollar events expected on October 20, so technical factors and macro headlines are likely to dominate trading decisions in the immediate term.
All told, Bitcoin’s latest surge above $111,000 is a testament to the cryptocurrency’s resilience in the face of volatility, shifting macroeconomic winds, and technical uncertainty. Whether this marks the start of a new leg higher or simply a pause before another test of support remains to be seen. For now, traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on key levels, ready to react as the next chapter in Bitcoin’s story unfolds.
