Bitcoin Rally Stalls Near 98000 Amid Investor Shifts

Bitcoin’s relentless march toward the $100,000 milestone has captured the world’s attention, but as the cryptocurrency approached this psychological threshold in mid-January 2026, the rally ran into formidable resistance. According to reporting by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a local high near $98,000 on Wednesday, January 14, only to retreat over the next two sessions, slipping below $95,000 by the close of the New York trading session on Friday, January 16. The pullback was swift and decisive, leaving traders and investors alike questioning whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency had finally met its match—or if this was merely a pause before another leg higher.

What exactly happened as Bitcoin flirted with six-figure territory? Data from multiple sources paint a picture of a market grappling with both exuberance and caution. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index, a closely watched metric that tracks the difference in BTC prices between Coinbase and other exchanges, briefly turned positive near the highs. This was interpreted as a sign of late spot buying—typically the domain of retail investors eager to ride the wave. Yet, despite this surge of interest, the price failed to break higher, suggesting that larger, more sophisticated buyers were not willing to chase the rally.

Market structure indicators reinforced this narrative. Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) made higher highs, even as the price itself formed a higher low. This divergence is often seen when aggressive buyers are absorbing sell pressure, but don’t have the firepower to drive the price meaningfully upward. At the same time, the bid–ask ratio remained negative throughout the rally. This means that, even as BTC’s price moved up, sell orders consistently outweighed bids. Instead of buyers building a wall of support, they were lifting offers—essentially snatching up whatever was available, but not laying down a foundation for sustained gains.

Material Indicators, a well-regarded market analysis firm, observed that “bears fought back hard,” with trend signals flipping on the daily chart. The company cautioned that losing key trendlines could trigger a deeper test of support levels. However, it also noted that a swift reclaim above $97,000 would invalidate the latest bearish signals, keeping hope alive for bullish traders. For now, the market sits at a crossroads, with both camps watching key levels intently.

Behind the scenes, short-term holders (STHs)—a group often seen as the market’s canary in the coal mine—were booking profits near their cost basis. On January 6, when BTC touched $94,000, STHs sent over 30,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, signaling a willingness to cash out after a strong run. This pattern repeated on Thursday, January 15, as the price broke above $97,000: more than 40,000 BTC in profits were realized in a single day. The STH discount, which measures how much below their cost basis these holders are willing to sell, compressed dramatically from -22% to just -4% over the past two months. Yet, the price stalled just below the STH cost basis near $98,300, while realized prices hovered closer to $102,000. This behavior suggests that capital preservation remains the top priority for STHs—at least until stronger confirmation of an upside breakout emerges.

While short-term traders were quick to lock in gains, a very different story was unfolding among medium and large investors. According to Coindesk, Bitcoin accumulation among these cohorts reached a three-year high as of January 18, 2026. In the 30 days leading up to that date, investors holding between 10 and 1,000 bitcoins—the so-called “Fish-to-Shark” category—added approximately 111,000 BTC to their wallets. This marks the largest accumulation since the dramatic price plunge to $15,000 in late 2022, following the FTX bankruptcy. The Fish-to-Shark group, which includes high-net-worth individuals, trading desks, and institutional players, now controls nearly 6.6 million bitcoins, up from about 6.4 million just two months ago.

And it’s not just the big fish making waves. Smaller holders, affectionately dubbed “Shrimps,” have also been steadily increasing their balances. Since late November 2023, this group has accumulated more than 13,000 bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to roughly 1.4 million coins. Both the Fish-to-Shark and Shrimp cohorts appear to see deep value in Bitcoin at these prices, signaling widespread demand across the market. This broad-based accumulation stands in stark contrast to the profit-taking seen among short-term traders, suggesting that long-term conviction remains robust even as the market navigates near-term turbulence.

Yet, as the market digests these crosscurrents, the regulatory landscape in the United States remains as murky as ever. PYMNTS reported last week that efforts to pass new digital asset legislation have stalled, despite mounting pressure from both industry players and policymakers. The Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee—tasked with overseeing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), respectively—had planned synchronized markups on two competing crypto regulation measures for January 15, 2026. However, those sessions were called off after both financial services industry groups and crypto advocates raised a host of unresolved concerns.

“For policymakers, the result represented a classic Washington dynamic: The louder the stakeholder chorus, the more challenging it becomes to discern a policy position,” PYMNTS observed. Industry opposition to specific provisions has been sufficient to stall what many had hoped would be landmark legislation, building on the momentum of the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, which was signed into law over the summer. The impasse reflects not only the ongoing tension between crypto firms and federal regulators, but also a deeper rift between the crypto industry and traditional banks. Banks have long campaigned against crypto offerings that resemble deposit products, particularly stablecoin rewards, which they see as direct competition to regulated interest accounts.

This banking pushback has seeped into the legislative text, prompting provisions aimed at limiting crypto incentives—a key flashpoint for companies like Coinbase and other developers of stablecoin-based products. As a result, the much-anticipated regulatory framework for digital assets remains in limbo, leaving market participants to navigate a landscape defined by both opportunity and uncertainty.

So, where does Bitcoin go from here? The recent price action suggests that while momentum has slowed, the underlying demand from medium and large investors remains a powerful force. At the same time, profit-taking by short-term holders and unresolved regulatory questions are creating headwinds that can’t be ignored. Whether Bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 barrier or consolidates below it, one thing is clear: the world is watching, and the stakes have never been higher.