As the Federal Reserve prepares to end its latest round of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, the cryptocurrency world is abuzz with speculation. Will Bitcoin repeat its historic 7.6x rally seen after the last QT cycle ended in 2019, or is the landscape too changed for history to rhyme? Market observers, institutional investors, and crypto enthusiasts are all watching closely as global liquidity, regulatory moves, and shifting sentiment converge at a critical crossroads.
To understand what’s at stake, it’s worth revisiting the events of 2019. According to Coinfomania, when the Fed ended QT that year and soon after restarted quantitative easing (QE), Bitcoin’s price trajectory was anything but straightforward. The central bank’s balance sheet stopped shrinking at around $3.8 trillion, but Bitcoin didn’t immediately soar. In fact, BTC initially dropped nearly 35% following the end of QT. It wasn’t until the Fed unleashed $3.2 trillion in new liquidity over the next 18 months that Bitcoin went on a parabolic run—exploding from $3,800 to $29,000, a staggering 7.6x rally. The lesson? It’s the flood of liquidity, not just the cessation of QT, that historically lights a fire under Bitcoin.
This time, the Fed’s playbook is slightly different. The central bank is set to halt QT by shifting to reinvestments in short-term Treasuries, a move designed to ease tightening money markets. Some traders see this as a bullish signal for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Yet, as the Federal Reserve Beige Book released on November 27, 2025, highlights, the broader economic picture is murky. The survey, as reported by the U.S. central bank, shows "little change in recent weeks," with overall consumer spending continuing to decline—except among high-end consumers. Employment levels have ticked down slightly, while prices have crept higher. In short, the economy is sending mixed signals, and the Fed itself is divided on whether to keep rates steady or cut them at its December meeting.
Adding to the uncertainty, JPMorgan reversed its previous forecast and now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both December 2025 and January 2026. The bank’s research team, led by Chief Economist Michael Feroli, pointed to recent comments by key Fed officials—especially New York Fed President Williams—who have expressed support for rate cuts. This shift in expectations could further influence Bitcoin’s fate, as lower rates and renewed liquidity often boost risk assets.
But will Bitcoin’s price action follow the same script as 2019? Analysts are split. One camp expects a familiar pattern: a short-term dip as markets digest the end of QT, followed by a powerful, liquidity-driven surge that could propel Bitcoin toward $180,000 in 2026. Others caution that the crypto market may have already "priced in" much of the good news, especially after the massive post-halving rally earlier in 2025. With global liquidity still tight, even modest increases might not be enough to spark another exponential move.
What’s undeniably different this time around is the level of institutional participation. As Coinfomania notes, Bitcoin’s investor base has matured considerably since 2019. Today, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasury allocations, and a growing cohort of long-term holders provide a more stable foundation. This could dampen the severity of any initial drawdown and potentially set the stage for a more sustained rally—if liquidity conditions turn favorable.
Yet, recent data suggests that large holders are not sitting idle. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, reported by The Block, there was a significant uptick in large Bitcoin deposits to exchanges during the recent price drop below $80,000 in late November 2025. Daily inflows reached 9,000 BTC, with a whopping 45% coming from single deposits of over 100 BTC—a proportion described as "abnormally high." On Binance, the average single deposit soared from 12 BTC at the start of the month to 37 BTC recently. CryptoQuant interprets this as evidence that "large holders are reducing their bitcoin holdings through exchanges," adding to the selling pressure during the current correction.
Ethereum, too, has seen its share of volatility. As of November 27, 2025, ETH had returned to $3,000, marking an end to the recent period of extreme panic, according to Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital. "It is a wonderful industry, but also a terrible one, full of faith and doubt, wisdom and ignorance, light and darkness, hope and despair," Lihua remarked, capturing the emotional rollercoaster that defines crypto investing.
Meanwhile, the ecosystem continues to evolve. Nasdaq has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to raise the futures limit for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF to 1 million contracts, the maximum allowed by regulators, according to Cointelegraph. This move, if approved, could further amplify institutional flows into Bitcoin and potentially increase price volatility.
Elsewhere in the crypto world, controversies and regulatory developments abound. Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange, has faced criticism for unilaterally changing a token symbol, raising questions about the true decentralization of such platforms. Binance, still reeling from a $4.3 billion fine in 2023, now faces a new $1 billion lawsuit in the U.S. for allegedly assisting terrorist organizations in conducting cryptocurrency transactions. The complaint, as reported by beincrypto, details a litany of alleged infractions and comes just a month after former President Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.
On the regulatory front, Securitize has received approval from the Spanish National Securities Market Commission to operate a tokenized trading and settlement system across the EU, with its first issuance expected on Avalanche in early 2026, according to The Block. This move positions Securitize as a rare bridge between U.S. and EU regulatory frameworks for tokenized securities.
Even the stablecoin sector isn’t immune to drama. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded defiantly to S&P’s latest rating of USDT, saying, "We are proud to be hated by you." Ardoino argued that the traditional financial system is "unwilling to see any company break free from its dysfunctional gravity," and insisted that Tether’s overcapitalized and profitable model is making the old guard uneasy.
Behind the headlines, the crypto market’s volatility remains ever-present. From security risks faced by high-profile holders—like the recent robbery involving Sam Altman’s ex-boyfriend—to the meteoric rise and fall of prediction market traders, the industry continues to test the limits of faith, fear, and fortune.
As the Fed’s December 1 decision approaches, all eyes are on the central bank’s next move and the ripple effects it may send through the world of digital assets. Whether Bitcoin is primed for another historic rally or faces a more subdued cycle, one thing is certain: the coming months will be anything but boring for crypto markets and those who follow them closely.
