On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, the exiled leader of Belarus’ opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, delivered a pointed warning to U.S. President Donald Trump: beware of President Alexander Lukashenko’s apparent overtures. According to The Associated Press, Tsikhanouskaya believes Lukashenko, often dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator” for his decades-long, iron-fisted rule, is attempting to deceive the U.S. with gestures such as the recent release of political prisoners.
Her caution comes at a pivotal moment in U.S.-Belarus relations. Earlier this month, President Trump took a significant step by easing sanctions on Belarus. The move was made in exchange for Lukashenko’s promise to release some political prisoners—a gesture Washington has long sought from the Belarusian regime. The deal, as reported by AP, now allows Belarus to repair and buy parts for its Boeing aircraft and other planes, potentially providing a much-needed economic lifeline to the country’s aviation sector.
Trump, for his part, has been effusive in his praise for Lukashenko, emphasizing their personal rapport. He described a “wonderful talk” with the Belarusian leader, thanked him publicly, and expressed anticipation for another meeting—a remarkable shift in tone for a leader who has been shunned by much of the Western world for years. The diplomatic thaw, however, is raising eyebrows among human rights advocates and the Belarusian opposition alike.
Despite the headline-grabbing releases, Lukashenko’s government still holds approximately 1,200 political prisoners, according to human rights organizations. Among those still detained are prominent figures such as Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and several top opposition activists. The scale of the repression is staggering: Tsikhanouskaya herself was forced to flee Belarus following the 2020 presidential election, which handed Lukashenko his sixth term in office and triggered the largest wave of mass protests in the country’s modern history.
The government’s response to those protests was swift and brutal. Tens of thousands of Belarusians were arrested, and many more were driven into exile. The crackdown has continued in the years since, with new waves of detentions reported even as some prisoners are released. As Tsikhanouskaya told The Associated Press, “I suppose that it’s the intention of Lukashenko to fool President Trump. You know, he wants to buy a Lamborghini for 2,000 Euros, taking a lot and not giving anything.” It’s a striking metaphor, summing up her skepticism about the Belarusian leader’s motives.
Over the past year, more than 300 political prisoners have been released from Belarusian jails, with over 50 freed in the most recent round. On the surface, these numbers might suggest progress. Yet, Tsikhanouskaya cautioned the U.S. administration “not to pay too much” for what she characterized as a relatively small number of releases. “People are dying in prisons,” she said, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
She described the ongoing repression as a “revolving door,” in which the government releases some prisoners while detaining many more. “That’s why we need ... consistent and irreversible changes, not to let this regime to take more and more and more hostages to sell them for higher price,” Tsikhanouskaya explained. Her message to the United States was clear: while diplomatic engagement can yield results, it must not come at the cost of fundamental human rights or embolden the Lukashenko regime to continue its cycle of repression.
According to IndiaTimes, Tsikhanouskaya’s comments were not merely rhetorical. She specifically thanked Trump for his role in securing recent prisoner releases, but was quick to add a note of caution. While acknowledging that the U.S. State Department viewed the releases as a constructive step toward improving bilateral relations, she insisted that the underlying reality in Belarus had not changed. The crackdown, she said, is ongoing, with more people being jailed even as some are set free.
The U.S. State Department echoed a similar sentiment in a statement, saying, “We view Belarus’s recent release of these political prisoners as another constructive step toward improving our bilateral relationship. There is much more to be done, and we hope to see continued progress. We will continue to explore opportunities for pragmatic engagement with Belarus where it is in the United States’ interest to do so.” This cautious optimism reflects the delicate balance Washington is attempting to strike: rewarding positive steps without losing sight of the broader picture.
The timing of these developments is also notable in the context of broader regional tensions. Just a day before Tsikhanouskaya’s remarks, President Trump surprised many at the United Nations by expressing confidence that Ukraine could win back all territory lost to Russia in over a decade of conflict. This marked a dramatic shift from his previous calls for Kyiv to make concessions to end the war sparked by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion. Tsikhanouskaya, for her part, welcomed the change in tone. “It looks like President Trump believed in Ukraine, believed that they can win this war and hopefully it will become actions, not words. And of course, we also see that President Trump might be disappointed by Putin,” she said.
The Belarusian opposition’s warnings come at a time when the West is reassessing its approach to autocratic regimes in Eastern Europe. The dilemma is a familiar one: how to encourage reform and respect for human rights without inadvertently strengthening the very leaders who stand accused of violating them. For the Biden administration—and any future U.S. leadership—the challenge is to ensure that gestures like prisoner releases are not used as bargaining chips by authoritarian governments seeking to extract concessions while continuing their repressive practices.
For Belarusians still languishing in prison, the stakes could not be higher. The stories of those detained, tortured, or forced into exile are a stark reminder of the risks faced by anyone daring to challenge Lukashenko’s rule. Tsikhanouskaya’s own journey—from presidential candidate to exiled opposition leader—has become emblematic of the struggle for democracy in Belarus.
As the United States weighs its next steps, the message from the Belarusian opposition is unmistakable: don’t be fooled by surface-level gestures. Real change, they argue, will require sustained international pressure, unwavering support for civil society, and a refusal to accept half-measures. Whether Washington—and the broader international community—will heed that advice remains to be seen. But for now, the revolving door of repression in Belarus continues to spin, and the fate of hundreds of political prisoners hangs in the balance.
Amid shifting alliances and diplomatic gambits, the situation in Belarus serves as a sobering reminder that the fight for freedom is far from over—and that genuine progress cannot be bought with empty gestures or fleeting deals.