In a stunning turn of events on December 14, 2025, Belarus released 123 prisoners, including prominent opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, marking a dramatic shift in the nation’s political landscape and its relationship with the West. This mass release followed high-level negotiations in Minsk between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and John Coale, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, and was swiftly followed by the United States lifting sanctions on potash—Belarus’s crucial export and a lifeline for its economy, according to reporting from The New York Times and BBC.
The agreement, which many observers are calling a diplomatic milestone, is the latest chapter in a saga of repression, resistance, and international maneuvering that has defined Belarus’s recent history. The released prisoners, many of whom had been jailed for their roles in the 2020 uprising against Lukashenko’s regime, include not only Kolesnikova and Bialiatski but also Viktor Babaryko, another leading opposition figure, and Marina Zolotova, the editor-in-chief of the independent news site Tut.by. The freed group also includes citizens from Australia, Britain, Lithuania, Poland, and the United States, as confirmed by the U.S. Embassy in Vilnius.
Maria Kolesnikova, who had endured years of imprisonment and long stretches in isolation since 2020, was visibly moved upon her release. “It’s a huge happiness to see the first sunset of my freedom, such amazing beauty,” she told reporters, as quoted by BBC. “But also we think of those who are not yet free. I wait for the moment when we can all hug each other, when all are free.” Her words echoed the bittersweet nature of the occasion: a victory for some, but a reminder of the many still behind bars.
The logistics of the release were as complex as the politics behind it. According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Kolesnikova and 113 other prisoners were handed over at the Belarus-Ukraine border. Ukrainian authorities stated that, after receiving necessary medical assistance, the prisoners would be transported to Poland and Lithuania. A smaller group, including Bialiatski, was sent directly to Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was waiting outside the U.S. embassy in Vilnius, greeted the freed prisoners with open arms and gratitude. In a statement on social media, she thanked Ukraine and its leaders for “welcoming 109 political prisoners, our heroes, released and deported from Belarus. We will never forget your openness and solidarity. Slava Ukraini!” Tikhanovskaya described the release as the result of “brilliant” U.S. diplomacy and “consistent pressure” from the European Union, adding, “Pressure must continue until repression ends, all prisoners are free & Belarus can begin its democratic future.”
Yet, the opposition leader was clear-eyed about the road ahead. “We are one step closer to change in Belarus today. Many of the people who made the 2020 uprising possible are now free. Viktar Babaryka, Maria Kalesnikava, Maksim Znak, Ales Bialiatski—they are more than symbols; they are the conscience of our nation. But we are not done yet. More than 1,100 political prisoners remain behind bars, and we will keep fighting for every single one.” According to the Belarusian human rights group Viasna, led by Bialiatski, more than 1,200 political prisoners were still detained as of the day of the release.
This deal represents a major achievement for Alexander Lukashenko, often described as Europe’s last dictator. After years of international isolation—especially following the brutal suppression of mass protests sparked by widely criticized elections in 2020—Lukashenko has managed to partially end his pariah status, at least with Washington. The European Union, however, continues to refuse recognition of his presidency, maintaining its stance that the 2020 elections were neither free nor fair.
The economic dimension of the agreement cannot be overstated. Potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer production, is one of Belarus’s most important exports and a vital source of revenue. The U.S. decision to lift sanctions on potash was announced by John Coale, who said, “As relations between the two countries normalize, more and more sanctions will be lifted.” The move offers Belarus significant economic relief at a time when its economy has struggled under the weight of Western sanctions, especially after the country allowed Russian troops and missiles to launch attacks on Ukraine from its territory during the 2022 invasion.
For the United States, the prisoner release and easing of sanctions mark a notable shift in policy. The Trump administration’s approach, as reported by The New York Times, has been more transactional, focusing on trade and pragmatic engagement with autocratic leaders. This stands in contrast to previous U.S. and European strategies, which prioritized isolating Lukashenko and supporting Belarus’s pro-democracy movement through maximum pressure. Some in the opposition have debated the wisdom of sanctions versus engagement, with Ivan Kravtsov, a key adviser to Babaryko, telling The New York Times, “I don’t think it’s possible to bring regime change in Belarus with sanctions. Now the wind is changing, so we need to catch the wind and get Belarus out of isolation to ensure its long-term development.”
The negotiations were not without their critics. Tikhanovskaya herself acknowledged the transactional nature of the agreement, stating, “Lukashenko will not release people because he somehow became humane, he wants to sell people as expensive as possible. Of course, it is the price. But we understand that American sanctions are rather flexible. They can lift them tomorrow if some deals are not fulfilled.”
The deal also reflects Lukashenko’s longstanding strategy of playing Russia and the West against each other to bolster his own position. As Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, explained to The New York Times, “High-level U.S. visits to Minsk and the renewal of political dialogue serve both to bolster Lukashenko’s bargaining position vis-à-vis the Kremlin and to signal that Belarus has alternatives to exclusive dependence on Russia.”
Washington, for its part, is seeking Belarus’s cooperation on broader international security issues, including halting the flow of illegal migrants across its borders with Poland and Lithuania and addressing hybrid threats in the region. The hope, articulated by Coale, is that the path of rapprochement will lead to normalized relations and a more constructive role for Belarus in regional security.
As the newly freed prisoners reunite with families and supporters, the world watches closely. Will this historic gesture mark the start of lasting change in Belarus, or is it merely a fleeting reprieve in a long struggle for justice and democracy? The answer, for now, remains uncertain—but for Kolesnikova, Bialiatski, and their fellow activists, the first sunset of freedom is a powerful symbol of hope.
