On Saturday, December 13, 2025, Belarusian authorities took the world by surprise, freeing 123 prisoners—including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and prominent opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova—after years of mounting international pressure. The move, confirmed by multiple outlets including the Associated Press and BBC, comes as part of a high-stakes diplomatic deal: in exchange for the releases, the United States announced it would lift sanctions on Belarus' vital potash sector, a key ingredient in fertilizer and a major source of export revenue for the country.
This sudden thaw in relations follows two days of intensive talks in Minsk between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and John Coale, the U.S. special envoy for Belarus. Coale described the meetings as “very productive,” according to Belarus’ state news agency Belta, and signaled that the relationship between Washington and Minsk was moving from “baby steps to more confident steps” as dialogue increased. “We’re lifting sanctions, releasing prisoners. We’re constantly talking to each other,” Coale told reporters, emphasizing that normalizing relations was “our goal.”
For Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron grip for more than three decades and faced years of Western isolation, the deal marks a dramatic shift. The authoritarian leader, who is not recognized as president by the European Union following a disputed 2020 election, has long relied on support from Russia. Yet, as sanctions over human rights abuses and Belarus’ role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have battered the nation’s economy, Lukashenko appears to be seeking a path back to the international fold.
The release of Bialiatski and Kolesnikova is especially significant. Bialiatski, founder of the Viasna human rights group and Nobel laureate, had spent 1,613 days behind bars on charges widely condemned as politically motivated. “It feels like I jumped out of icy water into a normal, warm room, so I have to adapt,” he told the Associated Press by phone after his release, appearing pale but energetic in post-release videos. “More than a thousand political prisoners in Belarus remain behind bars simply because they chose freedom. And, of course, I am their voice.”
Kolesnikova, a key figure in the 2020 mass protests and known for her signature heart gesture, was sentenced to 11 years in prison after resisting a forced deportation by tearing up her passport at the Ukrainian border. Upon her release, she expressed “a feeling of unbelievable happiness” at seeing loved ones again, but added, “we think of those who are not yet free. I wait for the moment when we can all hug each other, when all are free.”
Most of the freed prisoners were transported to Ukraine, where, according to Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, they would receive medical assistance before being transferred to Poland and Lithuania. A small contingent, including Bialiatski, was sent directly to Vilnius, Lithuania. The BBC reported that exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who was waiting outside the U.S. embassy in Vilnius, called the decision to send prisoners to Ukraine unexpected and said it had been made by Lukashenko himself.
The releases also included other high-profile figures: Viktor Babaryko, a former presidential hopeful imprisoned five years ago, and Marina Zolotova, editor-in-chief of the independent news site Tut.by. Viasna, the human rights group, initially reported that other imprisoned advocates and opposition figures were freed, though some details were later clarified.
For the United States, the deal represents a major diplomatic milestone. A U.S. official told the Associated Press that the engagement led by President Donald Trump’s administration “has led to the release of over 200 political prisoners in Belarus, including six unjustly detained U.S. citizens and over 60 citizens of U.S. Allies and partners.” Among the 123 freed on Saturday were a U.S. citizen, six citizens of allied countries, and five Ukrainian nationals. The official called the move “a significant milestone in U.S.-Belarus engagement” and “yet another diplomatic victory.”
But the deal has its critics. Tsikhanouskaya, speaking to the AP, warned, “The freeing of political prisoners means that Lukashenko understands the pain of Western sanctions and is seeking to ease them. But let’s not be naive: Lukashenko hasn’t changed his policies, his crackdown continues and he keeps on supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. That’s why we need to be extremely cautious with any talk of sanctions relief, so that we don’t reinforce Russia’s war machine and encourage continued repressions.” She also noted that while U.S. sanctions are flexible and can be reapplied if deals aren’t fulfilled, European Union sanctions—especially those targeting potash—are far more painful for Minsk and should be used to push for deeper, systemic reforms.
The potash industry, once accounting for about 20% of global fertilizer exports, has been hit hard by Western sanctions. Anastasiya Luzgina, an analyst at the Belarusian Economic Research Center BEROC, told the AP that “sanctions by the U.S., EU and their allies have significantly weakened Belarus’s potash industry, depriving the country of a key source of foreign exchange earnings and access to key markets.” She added that Minsk likely hopes the U.S. move will pave the way for easing even more severe European sanctions.
The U.S.-Belarus talks reportedly also touched on Venezuela and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Coale told reporters that Lukashenko had given “good advice” on how to address the Ukraine war, noting that Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin were “longtime friends” with “the necessary level of relationship to discuss such issues.”
The prisoner release is the latest in a series of steps by Minsk to ease its isolation. Since July 2024, Belarus has released more than 430 prisoners, including over 50 political prisoners in September 2025, often timed with rounds of talks or sanctions relief. The pattern, as described by Tsikhanouskaya and others, is one of transactional negotiation: “Lukashenko will not release people because he somehow became humane, he wants to sell people as expensive as possible. Of course, it is the price.”
European leaders have responded with cautious optimism. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda praised the “remarkable courage” of the freed prisoners and pledged support for “all who strive for freedom.” Yet, security tensions remain high—Lithuania recently declared a national emergency over meteorological balloons sent from Belarus, which forced repeated airport closures and stranded thousands.
As Belarus attempts to navigate between East and West, the fate of its remaining political prisoners—and the future of its relationship with the West—hangs in the balance. For now, the world watches to see whether this rare act of clemency signals real change or is merely another calculated move in the high-stakes chess game of international diplomacy.
