The Big 12 Tournament is underway in Kansas City, and all eyes are on the opening clash between the No. 12 seed Arizona State Sun Devils and the No. 13 seed Baylor Bears. Both teams arrive with identical 16-15 overall records, but with their NCAA Tournament hopes hanging by a thread, every possession suddenly feels like it could define the entire season. The stakes? Immense. The drama? Practically guaranteed.
Tipoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET at the T-Mobile Center, with the game airing on ESPN+. Despite neither squad sitting anywhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble, the winner will keep their postseason dreams alive—at least for another day—and advance to face Iowa State in the second round.
Let’s be honest: the storylines swirling around this matchup are as compelling as the basketball itself. For Arizona State, the game carries extra weight. Reports indicate that head coach Bobby Hurley is expected to be let go once the Sun Devils’ season wraps up, making this tournament a potential swan song for the fiery leader. The Sun Devils are fighting not just for a trophy, but for their coach’s legacy—and perhaps their own pride after a recent lopsided loss to Iowa State.
Baylor, on the other hand, is staring down the barrel of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six years. The Bears’ only path to March Madness is a miraculous run through the Big 12 gauntlet. It’s a tall order, but as anyone who follows college basketball knows, March is when the improbable becomes reality.
When these two teams met on February 21, Baylor eked out a 73-68 victory, thanks to a well-distributed offensive effort. Tounde Yessoufou and Obi Agbim each poured in 16 points, while Isaac Williams IV and Cameron Carr chipped in 14 and 13, respectively. That win extended Baylor’s head-to-head streak to seven straight over Arizona State, a psychological edge that can’t be ignored when tournament pressure mounts.
But don’t count out the Sun Devils just yet. Arizona State has shown flashes of brilliance this season, knocking off some of the Big 12’s heavyweights. Maurice Odom, the Sun Devils’ dynamic point guard, will be central to any upset bid. He’s expected to control the tempo and keep Arizona State’s offense humming, especially after being projected for 17.7 points in this matchup by the SportsLine projection model.
Baylor, though, brings the kind of offensive firepower that keeps opposing coaches up at night. The Bears average 82.7 points per game—good for fourth in the Big 12 and 44th nationally. Their offensive efficiency is no fluke either, ranking 23rd in the nation according to KenPom. The Bears make 8.2 three-pointers per outing and boast the third-best field goal percentage in the conference. It’s a balanced attack, and when the shots are falling, Baylor can run up the score in a hurry.
Defensively, however, the Bears have struggled at times, surrendering 77.0 points per game (261st nationally). Yet, that’s still a shade better than Arizona State’s 77.9 points allowed (293rd nationally), highlighting a matchup that could see points flowing freely. In fact, SportsLine’s model simulated the game 10,000 times and projects a total of 155 points, with the Over hitting more than half the time. Notably, 53% of Baylor’s games this season have gone over the total points line.
Rebounding could be the deciding factor. Baylor ranks 50th nationally in rebound rate and stands as one of the better rebounding teams in the Big 12. Arizona State, by contrast, sits dead last in the conference and 284th nationally. That disparity means Baylor should get plenty of second-chance looks, especially with Cameron Carr projected to lead the Bears in scoring at 20.3 points for this game. As Julian Edlow noted, “Baylor has talent and size advantages that should make it tough for Arizona State to keep up.”
On the odds front, things have shifted as tipoff approaches. Baylor opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line has moved to 3.5 or even 4.5 points at some sportsbooks, reflecting the growing confidence in the Bears. The over/under has settled around 154.5 points. Money continues to pour in on Baylor, who have covered the spread in four straight games and own a sparkling 13-3 record as the favorite this season. Arizona State, meanwhile, is reportedly a 4.5-point underdog at some outlets, despite being listed as the favorite in others—a testament to the volatility and intrigue surrounding this contest.
For Arizona State, the offensive load is spread fairly evenly, but they average 77.2 points per game while allowing opponents to hit 8.5 threes per contest. The Sun Devils’ defense ranks 11th in the Big 12 and they sit 14th in field goal percentage allowed. If they want to pull the upset, they’ll need to clamp down on Baylor’s shooters and find a way to win the battle on the glass—no small feat given the Bears’ strengths.
As the teams take the court, there’s an air of desperation mixed with hope. Both programs know the stakes: win and keep the season alive, lose and the long offseason begins. For Baylor, it’s about preserving a streak of NCAA Tournament appearances and proving that their offensive prowess can carry them through adversity. For Arizona State, it’s about rallying around a coach whose future is in doubt and showing that, even in the face of uncertainty, they can still deliver when it matters most.
So, who’s got the edge? The consensus among analysts leans toward Baylor. Their offensive efficiency, rebounding edge, and recent head-to-head dominance make them a popular pick. Predictions range from a close 78-74 Bears win to a more comfortable 82-78 margin. But this is March, after all—and if there’s one thing college basketball fans know, it’s that anything can happen when the lights are brightest.
With tipoff fast approaching, anticipation is reaching a fever pitch. Will Baylor’s offense overwhelm the Sun Devils? Can Arizona State rally behind Maurice Odom and give Bobby Hurley a parting gift to remember? One thing’s for sure: the Big 12 Tournament is off to a thrilling start, and the winner of this opening showdown will have earned every bit of it.
For now, the action is just getting started in Kansas City, and the journey to the Big Dance continues—one dramatic game at a time.