Australia’s intelligence community is sounding the alarm over a surge of unprecedented threats facing the nation, as foreign powers ramp up efforts to interfere in domestic affairs, target dissidents, and exploit social divisions. At the heart of these concerns is Mike Burgess, director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO), who delivered a stark warning during his annual address to the Lowy Institute in Sydney on November 4, 2025.
In his speech, Burgess revealed that at least three foreign nations are "willing and capable of conducting lethal targeting"—that is, assassinations—on Australian soil. “There is a realistic possibility a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia,” Burgess said, according to ABC News. He declined to name the countries publicly, but emphasized, “We know who they are.” Speculation by former officials and security experts, as reported by the Daily Mail, points to China, Russia, and Iran as the likely suspects, given their track records and recent activities.
Burgess’s warning comes against a backdrop of mounting espionage, foreign interference, and social discord, much of it fueled by advances in technology and deliberate efforts by hostile states. “We all spy on each other, but we don’t conduct wholesale intellectual property theft. We don’t actually interfere with political systems and we don’t undertake high-harm activity,” Burgess told the audience, as reported by AP News. He singled out Chinese security services for widespread intellectual property theft and political meddling, accusing Beijing of not understanding the independent statutory role ASIO plays in a Western democracy.
Relations between Australia and China have been rocky since 2020, when Australia enacted new laws banning covert foreign interference in its political system. Although diplomatic and trade ties have improved since the election of Australia’s current government in 2022, security relations remain tense. Australia has joined the United States in efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, a region both nations view as strategically vital. “When it comes to protecting Australians, the Americans are great mates and they help us every day and we do our fair share of helping them as well,” Burgess said, noting no change in cooperation since President Donald Trump’s reelection.
But China is not the only concern. Burgess described a complex threat landscape, with Iran and Russia also implicated in recent plots and campaigns. He cited Iran’s use of local criminals to carry out arson attacks on Jewish businesses and places of worship in Australia—part of what he called a “summer of anti-Semitism” orchestrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “Iran did not single Australia out; the summer of anti-Semitism was part of its global effort to ferment hatred of the Jewish community and fan the flames of division,” Burgess said, according to Arab News.
Russia, meanwhile, has been linked to disinformation campaigns aimed at inflaming social tensions and undermining support for Ukraine. ASIO is investigating pro-Russian social media influencers allegedly working with offshore media organizations directed by Russian intelligence. These "state-sanctioned trolls," Burgess explained, use social media to spread “vitriolic, polarizing commentary on anti-immigration protests and pro-Palestinian marches,” deliberately turning hot-button issues into flashpoints for division and even violence.
“These state-sanctioned trolls are more than propaganda puppets; they want to turn hot-button issues into burning issues, tipping disagreement into division and division into violence,” Burgess warned. He described how the far-right National Socialist Network—a large neo-Nazi group in Australia—has opportunistically exploited anti-immigration and cost-of-living rallies to recruit followers and raise its profile. “The biggest neo-Nazi group, the National Socialist Network – or White Australia as it is rebranding itself – identified the demonstrations as a vehicle to raise its profile. It strategically and opportunistically exploited the organisers' complaints about immigration and the cost of living,” Burgess said, as quoted by the Daily Mail.
He also pointed to the religious organization Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is listed as a terror group in the United Kingdom but not in Australia, for fueling and normalizing anti-Semitic narratives. “While an entity such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir is religiously motivated, its provocative behaviour, offensive rhetoric and insidious strategy are very similar to the tactics of the National Socialist Network,” Burgess stated. He clarified, however, that Hizb ut-Tahrir “deliberately stops short of promoting onshore acts of politically motivated violence.”
Beyond traditional espionage and interference, Burgess revealed that foreign intelligence services have tried to recruit Australians to gather inside information on the economy, critical minerals, and the $368 billion AUKUS submarine program—a key trilateral defense partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. “Reflecting ASIO's success in making Australia an unwelcome environment for espionage, the foreign intelligence service arranged for an Australian to travel by plane and then boat to a third country for a face-to-face meeting,” Burgess recounted. “The spies wanted to hand over a list of their intelligence requirements—the people and things they wanted spied on. Inside information on Australia's economy, critical minerals and AUKUS were high on the list. Little did they know ASIO was tracking and manipulating their entire activity.”
Perhaps most troubling is the role of technology in amplifying these threats. Burgess warned that artificial intelligence is accelerating the spread of radicalization and disinformation, taking online extremism to new, more dangerous levels. “In terms of social cohesion, the internet is the greatest incubator of grievance narratives and conspiracy theories,” he said. “While the internet incubates, social media accelerates. And while the internet incubates and social media accelerates, artificial intelligence exacerbates. You will not be surprised to know I am deeply concerned about the potential for AI to take online radicalisation and disinformation to entirely new levels.”
Burgess described a society under siege from three main groups: the aggrieved (individuals driven by grievance and frustration), the opportunistic (extremist organizations exploiting social fractures), and the cunning (nation-states deliberately working to inflame and divide). He warned that extremist groups are becoming more sophisticated at manipulating public anger and using protests as recruitment opportunities. “I worry we risk creating real world ‘aggro-rhythms’ where grievance, intolerance, polarization and rhetoric feed on themselves,” Burgess cautioned.
Despite the daunting array of threats, Burgess expressed guarded optimism about Australia’s resilience. “Please note I said, 'attempt to assassinate',” he clarified, underscoring ASIO’s commitment to preventing harm. “ASIO and our law enforcement partners are acutely alive to this threat and are working around the clock, using all our powers, to protect Australia and Australians.” He called on citizens to resist polarization and play a role in safeguarding national stability: “You cannot spy your way to greater cohesion or arrest your way to fewer grievances. Every one of us has a role to play. Our words matter, our decisions matter, our actions matter.”
While the challenges are significant, Burgess’s message was clear: Australia’s security agencies remain vigilant, and the nation’s social fabric, though tested, is not yet torn beyond repair.
