The stage is set for a gripping showdown at the 2026 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, as Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev prepare to face off in a semifinal clash packed with narrative, high stakes, and a touch of tennis history. Scheduled for Friday, February 27, at 14:00 CEST, this encounter marks the tenth meeting between the two stars, with both players riding impressive waves of momentum and seeking a second title of the season.
Auger-Aliassime, the 25-year-old Canadian, has been on a tear this February. After a modest start to the year, he’s flipped the script in remarkable fashion, stringing together 11 wins this month alone. His run includes hoisting the trophy in Montpellier and finishing runner-up in Rotterdam, capped by a commanding 6-3, 7-6(2) victory over Jiri Lehecka to book his place in the Dubai semifinals. As he put it, “I feel good, but sport goes fast. Maybe tomorrow night I’m sitting and you’re saying that I’m not playing that good. I’m going to come with a game plan, but he’s going to come with his as well. And we’ll see who gets the better of the match. But I fear his level a lot,” Auger-Aliassime admitted ahead of his meeting with Medvedev, according to Tennis World USA.
That respect is well earned. Medvedev, now 30, has been a dominant force on the hard courts of Dubai, bulldozing through the draw without dropping a set. His latest victim, Jenson Brooksby, managed to win just three games in a 6-2, 6-1 quarterfinal defeat. The Russian’s earlier rounds were equally emphatic, dispatching Juncheng Shang 6-1, 6-3, and Stan Wawrinka 6-2, 6-3. Notably, Medvedev has not lost more than three games in any set this week. “I felt great,” Medvedev said after his win over Brooksby. “There were a couple of games on my serve where I was under pressure, so I’m happy with the way I’m playing here and looking forward to the semis.”
Medvedev’s consistency is reflected in his stats. Over the past 12 months on hard courts, he’s posted a 32-15 record, capturing two tournament victories. His service game winning percentage stands at 79.6%, with a return winning percentage of 30.7%. He’s converted 157 out of 404 break points (38.9%), ranking third among his peers. Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, boasts a 34-13 record on hard courts in the same span, with two tournament wins. His serve has been a fortress, winning 84.7% of service games, and he’s converted 97 out of 271 break points (35.8%).
Their head-to-head story is a tale of two eras. Medvedev dominated their early encounters, winning the first seven meetings between 2018 and the 2024 Australian Open. Yet, Auger-Aliassime has since turned the tide, winning their last two matches. This Dubai clash will break the tie of recent momentum, with Medvedev holding a 7-2 overall edge, but the Canadian fresh off a pair of victories.
Both players are eyeing their second title of 2026, adding another layer of intrigue to an already compelling narrative. For Medvedev, there’s an extra milestone on the line: should he win this weekend, it would mark the first time in his career he’s won the same ATP title twice. Despite 22 career titles, including last year’s Dubai crown, Medvedev has never repeated at any event—a quirky statistic in an era dominated by serial champions. “This tournament is great so far,” Medvedev noted, reflecting on his drive to finally double up at a single venue.
Bookmakers are split, with odds hovering close to even. Medvedev enters as a slight favorite, listed at -135 according to BetMGM and -131 at other U.S. sportsbooks, with Auger-Aliassime the underdog at +105 or +114. Advanced tennis models give Medvedev a 53% chance to win, but also see value in Auger-Aliassime’s odds, suggesting a close contest is on the cards. The simulations predict Medvedev has a 52% chance to take the first set, while Auger-Aliassime has a 53% likelihood to cover a +1.5 games spread. Betting tips are divided, with some experts backing Medvedev’s form and head-to-head lead, while others see value in Auger-Aliassime’s recent surge and mental edge from his last two wins.
Auger-Aliassime’s path to the semifinals has been marked by resilience under pressure. He’s saved every breakpoint he’s faced in Dubai so far, a testament to his improved focus and confidence. Victories over Zhang, Mpetshi Perricard, and Lehecka—all in straight sets—have showcased his ability to raise his game when it matters most. His only recent stumble came in the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament final, where he fell to Alex de Minaur. Still, his February campaign has been a statement of intent.
Medvedev, for his part, has been clinical. In his quarterfinal against Brooksby, he fired seven aces without a single double fault, landed 83% of first serves, and won 77% of those points. He converted five of 11 break points and didn’t face a single break opportunity himself. “Today was not overthinking too much, I felt like I was doing the right thing on almost every point, I felt really good and looking forward,” Medvedev shared, hinting at a balanced mindset heading into the semifinals.
Beyond their personal ambitions, both players have the chance to make a statement in a packed ATP 500 field. The winner will face either Andrey Rublev or Tallon Griekspoor, who contest the other semifinal later in the day. Rublev, favored against Griekspoor, has a flawless 3-0 record in their rivalry, but nothing is guaranteed under the Dubai lights.
As the city buzzes with anticipation, fans and analysts alike are left to wonder: will Medvedev finally claim back-to-back titles at an event, or can Auger-Aliassime extend his February hot streak and notch a third straight win over the Russian? One thing’s for sure—this semifinal promises fireworks, tactical intrigue, and a showcase of two of the game’s most dynamic hard-court talents.
The action gets underway Friday afternoon, with the world watching to see which player will seize the moment and book a place in the Dubai final. With both men in scintillating form and history on the line, tennis fans are in for a treat. Stay tuned as the drama unfolds in one of the ATP Tour’s most exciting stops of the season.