The Premier League’s festive fixture chaos is once again in the spotlight, and Aston Villa are right at the heart of the debate. As the calendar turns to the final day of 2025, manager Unai Emery has publicly questioned the league’s scheduling, leaving fans and pundits alike scratching their heads. Why are Villa playing Arsenal twice before they’ve even faced Nottingham Forest? Why are some clubs seemingly handed more convenient runs of games than others? The answers—at least from the league’s perspective—are anything but simple.
Villa’s latest scheduling gripe comes as they prepare for a high-stakes clash against Arsenal on Tuesday night, December 31, their second consecutive Premier League away game in London after a bruising battle with Chelsea just days before. Emery didn’t mince words at his Monday press conference: “I cannot comprehend why we are playing Arsenal twice before facing Nottingham Forest even once.” The frustration is palpable, and it’s not just Emery who’s speaking out.
Damian Vidagany, Aston Villa’s director of football operations, took to X to express his own confusion, stating, “I asked EPL people and they didn’t tell us. So it is a mystery.” Villa’s leadership, clearly, feels left in the dark, believing they haven’t received a clear explanation for this unusual fixture sequence. Yet, sources close to the Premier League have told the Press Association that Villa was, in fact, given a comprehensive explanation when the 2025-26 calendar was released. According to the league, fixture compilation rules—approved by club representatives—dictate the home-and-away sequence, and quick reversals, like Villa’s back-to-back meetings with Arsenal, have happened before to ensure a balanced schedule.
The Premier League insists it tries to alternate home and away fixtures during the busy festive period, especially around matchweek 18 (Christmas) and matchweek 20 (New Year). The idea is to give teams at least one home game over the holidays, but the reality is more complicated. This season, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United all have back-to-back home games in rounds 18 and 19, a fact not lost on Vidagany and Villa’s supporters. The league claims such anomalies are sometimes necessary to accommodate European competitions and FA Cup rounds, but the expansion of continental tournaments has made the task increasingly difficult.
Villa’s sense of injustice is amplified by their current form and position in the table. The club is riding a remarkable eight-game Premier League win streak, sitting just three points behind leaders Arsenal as the season enters its second half. They’ve already beaten both first- and second-placed teams, defying expectations and stirring dreams of a Champions League berth—or even something more extraordinary.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. While Villa’s winning run has captured imaginations, a closer look at the underlying numbers suggests caution. The team has attempted 208 shots (13th-most in the league), conceded 231 (eighth-most), created just 19.8 expected goals (xG, 15th-most), and allowed 25.5 xG (ninth-most). In other words, they’re conceding better opportunities than they create—a worrying sign for any would-be title contender. Yet, as Janusz Michallik put it, “Unai Emery is already the Premier League manager of the season after Aston Villa’s eleventh win in a row vs. Chelsea.”
It’s not just Villa’s supporters who are watching the standings with bated breath. With 20 games remaining, the Premier League is tighter than ever. The gap between first and third is just three points, while fifth to 17th is separated by a mere 11 points. According to Opta’s Nils Mackay, there’s a 98.2% chance the league will earn a bonus Champions League place this season, making every point—and every fixture—count. Simon Tinsley’s projections, as of December 28, give Arsenal a 69% shot at the title, Manchester City 30%, and Villa and Liverpool clinging to about 1% each. It’s a crowded field, and the January transfer window could prove decisive.
But will it? Historical data suggests otherwise. Since 2015, net transfer spend in January among the Big Five European leagues has only a 5% positive correlation with changes in points per game. That’s a minuscule impact—about 0.03 points per game for every €20 million spent. Over half a season, that’s barely half a point. Still, in this year’s congested race, that tiny margin could mean the difference between Champions League football and Thursday nights in the Europa League.
Across the league, clubs are weighing their options. Newcastle United, currently 13th, need someone who can turn their quality possession into more shots on goal. Arsenal, despite their depth, could use another striker to push them over the line. Crystal Palace, stretched thin by Europa Conference League commitments, desperately need squad depth. Liverpool’s injury woes at center back make defensive reinforcements a priority, though mostly for depth and the future. Chelsea, having spent big, still lack a reliable midfielder and consistent center forward. Manchester City, ever the tacticians, seek a player who can bring more control to their dynamic midfield. Manchester United, meanwhile, are in the market for a midfielder with the athleticism to run all game—a problem that’s plagued them for years.
And then there’s Villa. Despite their heroics, the stats tell a sobering story. They’ve outperformed their expected goals by a wide margin, with players like Emiliano Martínez making crucial saves and attackers converting chances at an unsustainable rate. “This isn’t sustainable,” warns one analysis, drawing comparisons to Leicester City’s miraculous 2015-16 title run—except even Leicester outshot their opponents, and their expected-goal differential was far better than Villa’s current minus-0.32 per game.
Financial constraints mean Villa can’t splash the cash like some of their rivals, but there are still opportunities to strengthen. They need reinforcements across the pitch—attackers, midfielders, defenders—if they hope to maintain their momentum and secure a top-four finish. Their current run might not last forever, but with so many teams in contention and the margins so fine, every transfer, every fixture, and every decision matters more than ever.
As Villa prepare to face Arsenal for the second time this season—before even meeting Nottingham Forest once—the debate over fixture fairness rages on. The Premier League insists it’s all above board, but for Emery, Vidagany, and the Villa faithful, the mystery remains unsolved. One thing’s for sure: with the title race wide open and the January window looming, the drama is only just beginning.
