ASML Reports Record Revenue As AI Demand Surges

ASML Holding NV, the Dutch semiconductor equipment titan, has once again captured the financial world’s attention with its latest quarterly results, confirming its pivotal role in the global chipmaking ecosystem. As the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution continues to reshape the technology landscape, ASML’s earnings, record order book, and bullish outlook have sent ripples through markets and sparked debates among analysts and investors alike.

On January 28, 2026, ASML reported fourth-quarter net revenue of €9.7 billion—a record figure that contributed to a 16% increase in full-year revenue, which totaled €32.7 billion. According to Seeking Alpha, this Q4 revenue exceeded expectations by €140 million and marked a 5% year-over-year increase. However, the company’s Q4 GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of €7.35 fell short of estimates by €0.23, highlighting that even industry leaders are not immune to the challenges of a volatile market.

Despite the EPS miss, investors responded with optimism. As reported by Reuters, ASML’s U.S.-listed shares jumped nearly 3% in premarket trading, reaching $1,454.59, after the company revealed that quarterly bookings had more than doubled to €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion). Of these bookings, €7.4 billion came from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, underscoring the sustained demand for ASML’s cutting-edge lithography machines—tools that are essential for etching the tiniest details onto advanced computer chips.

“We see a very positive dynamic, a strong belief that the AI demand is real,” said CTO Christophe during the company’s earnings call, as cited by Intellectia. He emphasized that AI applications are driving the need for more advanced technology in both DRAM and logic chips, with customers ramping up their plans for medium-term capacity expansion. CFO Roger echoed this sentiment, noting, “Customers over the past couple of months have actually become more positive in their assessment of the medium-term market perspectives.”

ASML’s dominance in EUV lithography is no secret. The company holds an almost exclusive grip on this technology, which is critical for producing the world’s most advanced semiconductors. IMEC CEO Luc Van den Hove described EUV’s “patterning precision, scalability and energy efficiency” as essential for cutting-edge chip production, according to Reuters. In 2025 alone, ASML delivered 44 EUV systems, and the appetite for even more sophisticated tools is only growing as AI infrastructure demands surge.

The company’s robust performance was further reflected in its financial highlights. For the fourth quarter, ASML posted a gross margin of 52.2% and net income of €2.8 billion. For the full year, gross margin stood at 52.8% with net income reaching €9.6 billion. The installed base business, which includes service and upgrades for existing systems, generated €2.1 billion in Q4 and €8.2 billion for the year, indicating a healthy stream of recurring revenue.

Looking ahead, ASML provided guidance that points to continued growth. The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to fall between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, while full-year 2026 revenue is projected at €34 billion to €39 billion. Gross margins are anticipated to remain strong at 51% to 53%. Long-term, ASML’s ambitions are even more striking: by 2030, it aims for revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, with gross margins potentially climbing to 60%.

To reward shareholders, ASML announced a new share buyback program of up to €12 billion, set to run through December 31, 2028, and proposed a 17% increase in the 2025 dividend to €7.50 per share. “We expect 2026 to be another growth year for ASML’s business,” stated CEO Christophe Fouquet, reinforcing the company’s confidence in its trajectory.

However, the path forward is not without obstacles. As reported by AP News, Dutch export controls continue to limit shipments of certain advanced machines to China, reflecting geopolitical tensions that could impact roughly 20% of ASML’s revenue. Tight supply is expected in 2026, potentially constraining growth, while rapid technological advancements require continuous innovation to maintain industry leadership. Economic uncertainties also linger, with the risk that customers may pull back on investments if AI-driven demand proves less durable than anticipated.

In a move that caught some observers off guard, ASML also announced plans to eliminate about 1,700 positions as part of a broader effort to control costs and streamline operations. While such restructuring may improve efficiency, it brings execution risks—especially as the company ramps up production of increasingly complex systems to meet record orders.

Market reaction to ASML’s results was swift. According to Intellectia, the company’s stock rose 0.27% in aftermarket trading, nearing its 52-week high at 1417.13. The upbeat results also buoyed shares of other chip equipment makers: Applied Materials jumped 4.1%, Lam Research surged 7%, and KLA climbed 4.8% in U.S. premarket action, as reported by Reuters. Investors are now keenly watching how much of ASML’s order intake will translate into immediate shipments versus being added to a swelling backlog.

Analyst sentiment remains mixed, reflecting both the promise and the risks inherent in ASML’s current position. Bernstein reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating with a price target of $1,642, while Evercore ISI also sees further upside. Barclays, however, maintains a “Neutral” stance, citing concerns over the stock’s elevated valuation after a 25% rally since the start of the year. As Seeking Alpha notes, analyst price targets range from $1,140 to $1,500, with the current price hovering around $1,413.35—a testament to the market’s divided outlook.

Amid the excitement, the company’s executives stressed their focus on technological innovation. CTO Christophe highlighted the ramp-up of the NXE 3800, a key tool for advanced DRAM and logic nodes, and noted that upgrades and new product introductions are meeting strong customer demand. “Some of the key products should become production worthy in the coming months,” he said, underscoring ASML’s commitment to staying at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing technology.

For now, ASML stands as both a beneficiary and a bellwether of the AI-fueled boom in chipmaking. Its record results, surging orders, and ambitious outlook have reinforced its reputation as an indispensable supplier to the world’s top semiconductor manufacturers. Yet, as the company navigates supply constraints, geopolitical challenges, and the relentless pace of technological change, all eyes will remain fixed on how it manages to turn today’s promise into tomorrow’s sustained growth.