On Sunday, October 26, 2025, Argentines are heading to the polls for a midterm election that could make or break President Javier Milei’s ambitious economic overhaul. The stakes are sky-high: the outcome will determine whether Milei’s radical reforms—marked by sweeping austerity and deregulation—can survive a bruising political landscape, or whether the opposition will tighten its grip and send the president’s agenda into a tailspin.
It’s been almost two years since Milei, a former TV pundit with a flair for the dramatic, stormed into office waving a chainsaw—a not-so-subtle symbol of his pledge to slash state spending and uproot Argentina’s entrenched economic woes. He won the presidency in December 2023 with a stunning 56 percent in a run-off, upending the political order with his anti-establishment rhetoric. But if the presidential race was a landslide, the legislative math has always been less forgiving. His party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances, or LLA), managed to secure only 37 deputies and six senators, less than 15 percent of Congress—leaving Milei to battle a hostile legislature at every turn.
Now, with half of the 257-member Chamber of Deputies and a third of the 72-member Senate up for grabs, Milei is hoping to boost his party’s share to at least a third. That threshold would allow him to veto hostile legislation and protect his agenda from being unraveled by the opposition. But even with polls suggesting LLA will improve its numbers, a majority remains out of reach. “That would be a good number,” Milei commented, referring to the elusive one-third mark. But as political scientist Gabriel Vommaro told AFP, “Milei might strike temporary deals, push a less radical reform than he wanted, just to show he delivered. But a full ‘normalisation’ of Milei, or a broader coalition? I’m not sure he can, or even wants to.”
Since taking office, Milei has wasted no time delivering on his promise of "shock therapy." Tens of thousands of public sector jobs have been cut, public works frozen, and spending on health, education, and pensions slashed. Deregulation has swept through the economy like a gale. The results? A mixed bag. Inflation, once a staggering 200 percent, has been hacked down to 31 percent—a remarkable feat in a country where price surges have become a way of life. For the first time in 14 years, the budget is balanced. But the cost has been punishing. Over 200,000 jobs have evaporated, and the economy was mired in recession for much of 2024. With the removal of government subsidies, the cost of housing, healthcare, and education has soared, plunging millions deeper into poverty. “We’re the same as two years ago, but worse,” lamented Héctor Sánchez, a 62-year-old waiter quoted by AFP. “The hope that was there is gone.”
Public opinion is divided and, for Milei, increasingly precarious. His approval ratings have slipped, and a September 2025 defeat in Buenos Aires’ provincial elections dealt his allies a stinging blow. The president’s inner circle has been rocked by corruption allegations, including the abrupt withdrawal of national deputy José Luis Espert over ties to an alleged drug trafficker. “This government promised a lot and I see nothing (...), he didn’t create any new jobs,” Sánchez added, reflecting a widespread sense of disappointment. Yet, for many, the alternatives are unappealing. “The other side has nothing. And I don’t want to go back to before.”
Milei’s legislative headaches have been compounded by fierce resistance in Congress, which has repeatedly blocked signature policies—most notably his efforts to privatize state-owned giants like Aerolineas Argentinas, YPF, nuclear plants, and public media. With just six senators and 37 deputies, the president’s ability to push through reforms has been stymied. The opposition, dominated by the leftist Peronist movement that ruled Argentina for 17 of the past 23 years, is regrouping after its own setbacks. Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is out of the running, convicted of corruption and ineligible for office, while Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof is gaining ground as a potential challenger in 2027. Meanwhile, a new centrist force, Provincias Unidas, led by a bloc of provincial governors, is poised to complicate the electoral math further.
Internationally, Milei has found a powerful—if controversial—ally in US President Donald Trump. Earlier this month, Trump’s administration pledged a whopping $40 billion in aid to Argentina, hoping to prop up the beleaguered peso and shore up Milei’s government. But the generosity comes with strings attached. Trump warned, “If (Milei) loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.” The message was clear: US support is contingent on Milei’s continued grip on power. The opposition has seized on these ties to Washington, with Kicillof quipping, “Orders now come from Washington... Trump is Milei’s campaign manager.”
Despite the foreign infusion, the peso remains under pressure, and monthly inflation is creeping back up. Economists are wary. Mauricio Monge, Latin America economist at Oxford Economics, told AFP, “Washington’s aid is not enough to counteract the growing likelihood that the election results will prevent further reforms.” He added, “If history has taught us anything about Argentina, it’s that previous bailouts, when political support wanes, have proven futile.” Some even warn that the US could find itself mired in a “financial Vietnam,” pouring good money after bad in a bid to stabilize Milei’s administration.
In the run-up to the vote, Milei has tried to soften his image. Gone are the daily tirades against opponents and journalists. Instead, there’s more outreach to provincial governors and a touch more empathy for “vulnerable” Argentines. Yet, the president hasn’t lost his taste for spectacle, recently donning his trademark rocker leather jacket for a surreal rally-concert aimed at energizing his base. Whether this newfound pragmatism will last—or translate into legislative gains—remains to be seen.
As Argentines cast their ballots, the outcome is anything but certain. Will Milei’s party secure enough seats to protect his reforms, or will a resurgent opposition—bolstered by Peronists and centrists alike—stall his agenda? Financial markets and international investors are watching closely, anxious about the prospect of further instability or a dramatic policy reversal. One thing is clear: the midterms are not just a referendum on Milei’s economic experiment, but a pivotal moment for Argentina’s future direction and its relationship with the United States.
Amid economic anxiety, political intrigue, and international pressure, Argentina’s midterms are shaping up as a defining chapter in the country’s ongoing struggle to break free from its cycle of crisis and disappointment.